在很多人眼里，房地产依然是中国经济的"压舱石"。然而，最近一连串新闻却在提醒我们：曾经的优等生房企、曾经的豪宅神话，如今都在经历寒冬。 一、连万科都走上了"卖卖卖"的道路 8月20日，北京万科发布公告，计划出售翠湖国际项目8号楼的办公产品1至5层以及负一层仓储，总价约1.2亿元。要知道，这可是位于中关村的写字楼项 目，位置不差，项目一度被视为万科在北京的产业园代表作。 然而，这已经是北京万科今年拟出售的第五个项目。去年起，万科就在全国范围内不断抛售商业资产。进入2025年，这一动作愈发频繁。 看到这里，很多人可能会想到王健林的"卖万达"模式。过去几年，王健林几乎是"一月一卖"，先是一个月出手一座万达广场，后来干脆加快节奏，一个月 卖两座。可即便如此，万达的财务状况依旧没有明显好转。 今天的万科，也走上了类似的道路。要知道，在专家和业内人士眼中，万科一直是房地产行业的优等生，是稳健经营的代表。如今却不得不频频出售资产 来维持现金流。这种现象本身，就说明所谓"房地产市场止跌企稳"的说法，多少带着自我安慰的意味。 如果真的已经企稳，为何连"优等生"都要靠卖楼维持生存？ 二、香港豪宅的"腰斩"神话 更让人唏嘘的，是香 ...

销售排名稳居榜首，一二线投资占比超九成 保利发展(600048) 证券研究报告 房地产开发 / 公司点评 / 2025.08.11 | 投资评级:增持(维持) | | --- | | 盈利预测 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 346828 | 311666 | 287045 | 270109 | 258386 | | 收入增长率(%) | 23.42 | -10.14 | -7.90 | -5.90 | -4.34 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 12067 | 5001 | 5192 | 5624 | 6020 | | 净利润增长率(%) | -34.13 | -58.56 | 3.81 | 8.33 | 7.04 | | EPS(元) | 1.01 | 0.42 | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.50 | | PE | 9.80 | 21.10 | 18.51 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to intensified industry competition and a lagging effect from the overall downturn in the real estate market [1] Group 1: Profit Warning - The company issued a profit warning on August 8, indicating that the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 is expected to decrease by approximately 40% to 50% compared to about RMB 5.01 billion in the same period of 2024 [1] - The anticipated decline in profit is attributed to increased competition in the industry and the lagging effects of the overall downturn in the real estate market, leading to a decrease in overall project revenue [1] Group 2: Business Growth - Despite the challenging market conditions, the company experienced strong growth in new construction management projects, with a total contracted construction area of 19.89 million square meters, representing an increase of approximately 13.9% year-on-year [1] - The estimated management fees for new construction projects are projected to be around RMB 5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 19.1% [1] - The company has seen an increase in the proportion of commercial construction management and repeat commissioning rates, demonstrating its strong expansion capabilities and customer trust even under market pressure, which will contribute to performance certainty and lay a foundation for sustainable high-quality development [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue and profit due to reduced turnover scale and market fluctuations, with a significant drop in net profit margin [7] - Despite the challenges, the company remains a leader in the real estate sector, focusing on investment in first and second-tier cities, which is expected to gradually improve its valuation [7] - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is projected to be 5.19 billion, 5.63 billion, and 6.03 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.43, 0.47, and 0.50 RMB [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 346.83 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 23.4%, but is expected to decline in subsequent years [6] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 12.07 billion RMB, with a significant decrease in the following years, reflecting a net profit growth rate of -34.1% in 2023 and -58.6% in 2024 [6] - The company's operating profit margin for the first half of 2025 is reported at 8.4%, down from previous periods, indicating pressure on profitability [7] Market Position and Sales Performance - The company achieved a contract sales amount of 290.1 billion RMB in June 2025, a decrease of 31.0% year-on-year, aligning with industry trends [7] - The company has maintained its position as the top player in the industry despite the sales decline, with a total contract sales amount of 1,451.7 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, down 16.3% year-on-year [7] Investment Strategy - The company has increased its investment intensity, acquiring 27 land parcels in the first half of 2025, with 23 located in first and second-tier cities, representing 91.8% of total land costs [7] - The total land cost for these acquisitions is reported at 50.87 billion RMB, indicating a strategic focus on high-potential urban areas [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the Chinese real estate market, predicting a decline in sales and prices, with a potential bottoming out in Q4 2024 [7][8]. Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing significant challenges, with a 2.9% year-on-year decline in new home sales expected to worsen in June 2024 [1][3]. - The inventory of new homes remains high, averaging 24 months across 70 cities, with second and third-tier cities facing particularly severe pressure [1][5]. - The shopping center market is undergoing positive consolidation, with leading operators like CR Land expanding market share through acquisitions and a light-asset model [2][9]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Overview - The report highlights a 3.8% year-on-year decline in national real estate sales, with top developers experiencing an 11% drop in sales in the first half of the year [3][4]. - Land sales in 300 key cities have decreased by over 6%, marking a 15-year low [4]. Housing Inventory and Prices - New home prices have been on a downward trend, with a 4% year-on-year decline in May and an 11% drop in second-hand home transaction prices in June [6][8]. - The report anticipates that new home sales will hit a low of 8.4 trillion RMB in 2025, with a reduction in new construction and completion areas [8]. Shopping Center Market Dynamics - The shopping center sector is seeing growth, with over 6,300 centers operational by 2024, primarily in lower-tier cities [9]. - CR Land's same-store sales growth significantly outpaces competitors, achieving a 16% increase compared to 8-9% for others [9][10]. Future Projections - By 2040, CR Land plans to expand its heavy-asset shopping center count by 90%, reaching 174 centers [10][18]. - The report predicts that the real estate market will stabilize in early 2026 for first-tier cities and late 2026 for second-tier cities [8]. Property Management Sector - In 2024, 74% of property management revenue will come from basic management services, with a significant decline in value-added services from developers [21][22]. - Leading companies are focusing on third-party expansion to drive future growth, with a notable decrease in reliance on parent company support [22][25]. Shareholder Returns - The property management industry is characterized by strong cash reserves, with many companies increasing dividends and share buybacks to enhance shareholder returns [27].

Core Viewpoint - Skyworth Group (00751) issued a profit warning, expecting a decline of approximately 50% in after-tax profit for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to the same period ending June 30, 2024, primarily due to the ongoing downturn in the Chinese real estate market and weak sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's stock fell over 3%, specifically down 3.04% to HKD 3.19, with a trading volume of HKD 7.8624 million [1] - The expected decline in after-tax profit is attributed to impairment provisions related to real estate inventory, reflecting changes in the current market environment [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The downturn in the Chinese real estate market has led to poor performance in the company's modern service industry segment, particularly in construction and development business [1] - The company has increased its impairment provisions for real estate inventory in accordance with accounting standards, indicating a response to the challenging market conditions [1]

Group 1 - The company, Skyworth Group (00751), anticipates a decline of approximately 50% in after-tax profit for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The expected decline is primarily attributed to the ongoing downturn in the Chinese real estate market and sluggish sales, which have led to impairment provisions in certain regional properties within the modern services sector [1] - The company has increased its impairment provisions for real estate inventory in accordance with accounting standards, reflecting changes in the current market environment [1] Group 2 - The company's mid-term performance is also expected to be impacted by the performance of its smart systems technology segment, due to a competitive market environment [1] - The significant drop in sales prices of smart terminal products has resulted in a year-on-year decline in revenue and gross margin [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing significant weakness, which is likely to severely hinder overall economic growth [1][10]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi has raised concerns from a "yellow alert" to a "red alert" regarding the real estate market's deteriorating outlook [2]. - Mortgage rates are currently near 7%, and unless they decrease significantly, home sales, construction activity, and even home prices are expected to decline sharply [3][4]. - In May, existing home sales unexpectedly rose but still marked the slowest sales pace for any May since 2009, indicating a dismal spring selling season [3]. Group 2: Sales and Construction Trends - New single-family home sales fell by 13.7% month-over-month in May, and single-family housing starts decreased by 4.6% in June, with a decline in building permits as well [4]. - Builders who previously offered rate subsidies to support sales are now withdrawing this practice due to high costs, leading to anticipated declines in new home sales, starts, and completions [4]. - The Case-Shiller home price index showed a 0.3% month-over-month decline in April, a larger drop than the revised 0.2% decrease in March [5]. Group 3: Builder Sentiment and Price Adjustments - According to the National Association of Home Builders, 38% of builders lowered home prices in July, up from 37% in June, indicating a trend of decreasing builder confidence [6]. - Increased supply is putting additional downward pressure on home prices, as even homeowners with locked-in low mortgage rates are compelled to sell and buy new homes at higher rates [7]. Group 4: Economic Implications - Zandi warns that the current state of the real estate market will soon become a major obstacle to overall economic growth, raising concerns about the economic outlook for later this year and early next year [11]. - Citi Research analysts have echoed similar warnings, noting that residential investment is a strong leading indicator of economic recession, particularly under current weak demand conditions [11][12]. - The residential fixed investment sector, being highly sensitive to interest rates, is signaling that the current mortgage rates around 7% are too high to sustain ongoing economic growth [13].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China, particularly in first-tier cities, continues to experience a downward trend in second-hand housing prices, with a lack of market confidence evident across various regions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In June, the average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities was 13,691 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.75% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.26% [1]. - First-tier cities saw an increase in the rate of decline, with prices dropping by 0.56% in June compared to 0.36% in May [1]. - The rebound in prices following the "924 New Policy" from last year is rapidly fading, leading to a depletion of home-buying demand [3]. Group 2: Policy Responses - Local governments have limited policy tools left, primarily relying on housing subsidies and adjustments to public housing fund loan policies [3]. - Several cities have introduced new public housing fund policies aimed at increasing loan limits and easing borrowing conditions to stimulate demand [4]. Group 3: Regional Focus - Xi'an - Xi'an's housing market is experiencing a downward trend, with a significant increase in the number of second-hand homes listed for sale [6]. - The average price of second-hand homes in Xi'an is approximately 12,258.67 yuan per square meter, which is below the national average [6]. - The coverage rate of public housing fund contributions in Xi'an is low, with only about 185,000 contributors, representing less than 20% of the city's permanent population [7]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Sentiment - The impact of new public housing fund policies on real estate consumption is expected to be limited due to low coverage and insufficient loan amounts to meet the high prices in core areas [8]. - Consumer confidence remains a critical factor, with many potential buyers focusing on job stability and income rather than interest rates or policy details [8]. - The current government strategy aims to stabilize the market and avoid drastic declines, indicating a preference for gradual recovery [11].

Core Viewpoint - The once-coveted high-rise elevator apartments are now facing unprecedented challenges, including a significant drop in prices and transaction volumes, with declines exceeding 30% from historical highs [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Since 2022, the real estate market has entered a "volume and price decline" phase, with a sharp drop in both new and second-hand housing transactions in the first quarter of 2025 [3]. - The market trend reflects the foresight of industry figures like Cao Dewang, who warned about the potential devaluation of properties [1][3]. Group 2: Key Factors for Decline - **High Shared Area Costs**: The common area in elevator apartments can be as high as 25% or more, leading to hidden costs for buyers. For a 100 square meter apartment, usable space may only be 70-75 square meters, resulting in additional expenses that can reach tens of thousands of yuan [4]. - **Safety Risks**: High-rise buildings pose significant safety hazards during emergencies, as elevators may fail during disasters, and rescue operations are limited to certain heights, increasing evacuation difficulties [5][6]. - **Inconvenient Access**: Residents often face issues with elevator malfunctions and congestion during peak hours, leading to delays in daily commutes and impacting quality of life [10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Aging elevator apartments are unlikely to see large-scale redevelopment due to high costs, leading to a situation where maintenance becomes a burden on residents. This could result in a demographic shift, with economically stable residents moving out, leaving behind lower-income tenants and potentially transforming these areas into "slums" [11].