格隆汇1月8日丨中国三迪(00910.HK)公告，集团主要于中国从事物业发展、持有投资及租赁目的物业， 并于本公告日期继续从事其现有业务。中国房地产市场持续面临下行压力，大部分地区销售表现疲弱。 持续严峻的融资状况进一步影响集团的流动资金状况，并加剧由其物业发展分部销售低迷所带来的经营 困难。尽管面对该等挑战，集团仍致力于透过优先及时交付项目及维持其核心业务的稳定营运，以减轻 市场低迷的影响。于本公告日期，尽管公司股份暂停买卖，集团业务营运于所有重大方面均照常进行。 公司致力于达成复牌指引，目标为于刊发未完成财务资料及重新遵守上市规则第3.28条后向联交所申请 股份恢复买卖。 继续暂停买卖。 ...

大摩闭门会：房地产、交运、汽车行业更新 260107_原文 发言人 00:00 各位新年好，今天是 1 月 7 号，欢迎来到摩根士丹利每周三的周期论剑在线直播，我是新娣儿堂。唐荣为 基础材料行业分析师，今天我们讨论的主题是房地产 2026 年展望和行业更新。交运行业观点更新以及上 汽集团的业务协同有望助推复苏脚步。在我们开始今天的讨论前，我还需要做一个 disco。请注意，本会议 里面项目更是丹利的机构客户以及财务顾问。本会议不对媒体开放，如果您来自媒体，敬请退出本次会议 另外在会议过程中，您可以随时在屏幕左方发送您的问题，不需要等到最后，这样我们可以节约 TMA 等待 的时间。我们现在把时间交给我们房地产行业分析师。 发言人 00:53 好的，谢谢 CP 各位投资人，新年好。对于房地产市场，我们认为 2026 年整体的这个房地产的市场依然是 维持一个下行的趋势。但是从整体的这个跌幅上来看的话，我们认为可能会跟 24 和 25 年相比会有所放缓。 我们的这个观点，主要的这个逻辑是基于对于房地产政策端，我们认为整体的这个政策的语调，可能会跟 2025 年比较相像，也就是说止跌回稳的这个语调不变。但是从具体的这个 ...

房地产市场的传统观念认为，即使楼市面临调整，一线城市的核心区域房价也"只涨不跌"，而三四线城市的房价则可能受到冲击。然而，从2023年起，这一 论断已然被现实打破。以上海为例，曾经单价超过10万元人民币一平方米的核心城区二手房，如今价格已滑落至每平方米6万至7万元，跌幅超过三成，并且 市场呈现"有价无市"的尴尬局面。 2. 停车混乱： 车辆随意停放，缺乏有效的管理和规划。 3. 设施损毁： 路灯、健身器材等公共设施损坏后，无人及时维修和更换。 4. 环境脏乱： 垃圾清理不及时，楼道无人定期清扫，整体环境不佳。 此类小区不仅严重影响居民的居住体验，更使得房产的出售变得异常困难。 面对当前房地产市场的下行趋势，业内人士预测，五年后，以下四类住宅小区或将沦为"穷人区"，不仅房价下跌，更可能面临无人问津的境地。有先见之明 的人已悄然选择"脱手"。这四类小区分别是：物业管理不善的小区、老旧高层住宅、市中心的老破小以及远郊的住宅。 一、物业管理糟糕的小区 当前部分小区的物业服务水平低下，主要源于两个方面的原因。一是空置率高，导致业主长期拖欠物业费，物业公司因此无力提供优质服务。二是老式小 区，为了压低物业费，其服务质量自 ...

当前房地产的真实量价？如何稳？20251215 摘要 受 2024 年同期高基数影响，2025 年 10 月和 11 月新房销量依然疲软， 一线城市房价年初以来跌幅扩大，以上海为例，二手房价格已回落至 2016 年初水平，北京、广州类似，深圳跌幅更大。 当前市场基本面不支持现有房价，2024 年 9 月政策效果消退后市场逐 月下滑，一线城市租金回报率远低于按揭贷款利率，房价或需再降 30%-40%才能达到理论底部。 预计 2026 年全国新房成交量将降至 6.8 亿平方米，接近但未达理论底 部。房价持续下滑影响买方预期，加剧开发商财务压力，若无政策干预， 趋势将延续。 预计 2026 年第一季度末或有政策调整，需关注数据变化及中央工作会 议表态。有效政策需中央明确稳定目标，需求端发力，如大幅下调存量 房贷利率、降低交易税费等。 房地产风险主要来自高杠杆和高周转模式，房价下跌导致土地和未售项 目贬值，低杠杆开发商也可能面临售价低于成本问题，行业风险难以出 清，影响居民消费和银行抵押物价值。 Q&A 当前房地产市场的整体情况如何？ 根据国家统计局的数据，当前房地产市场仍在继续下滑。11 月份，全国新建住 宅销售同 ...

Group 1 - The real estate market is experiencing significant downturns, forcing banks to sell properties directly, which marks a shift from their traditional role as intermediaries [1][6] - Banks are now offering "direct supply houses," which are properties reclaimed from borrowers unable to repay loans, with Jilin Bank providing over 2,000 such units [3] - These "direct supply houses" are priced approximately 30% below market value, making them attractive to buyers, while also indicating the severe state of the real estate market [5] Group 2 - The sale of properties by banks is expected to increase competition for developers and create anxiety among homeowners, as buyers anticipate even lower prices [5][6] - Many banks are withdrawing long-term deposit products, indicating a reluctance to lock in long-term interest rates, which reflects their expectations of declining future deposit rates [5] - The actions taken by banks are exacerbating market anxiety, highlighting the challenges faced by an industry that was once thriving [6]

有人说丈母娘凭借一己之力改变了我国房地产市场，现在随着房地产市场的下行，婚恋市场本身，可能也会迎来改变。 我国房地产市场目前正经历着前所未有的深度调整。根据统计局数据，今年上半年，全国300个城市新建商品住宅价格指数同比下降5.7%，其中一线城市下 跌2.3%、二线城市下跌4.8%，三四线城市下跌8.2%。 而这，已经是我国地产价格连续第四年下行，如果从2021年算起的话，这场调整已经持续了近五年。 地产行业的问题，可以追溯到开发商所面临的普遍困境。其中最具代表性的，就是负债率。截至2025年6月，全国百强房企平均资产负债率高达82.3%，较 2020年的76.8%上升明显，其中有37家大型房企债务问题已经公开，12家进入破产重组程序。 从1998年住房市场化到2020年前后，我国房地产经过了20年的高速发展期，而这20年，恰恰也是我国婚姻市场的高速发展期。 从过去的说媒相亲，到今天的自由恋爱，房地产和婚姻市场，并不是一开始就高度绑定的，但随着地产价格的不断上涨，最终它作为一种"门槛"，开始被丈 母娘所青睐，最终形成了今天我们所看到的几乎是"硬性条件"。 结婚需要房子，二十年前不是共识，但今天早已经成了共识。 ...

中国新消费集团(08275)公布，该集团预期于截至2025年9月30日止6个月，将取得净亏损约700万港元至 约1000万港元，而截至2024年9月30日止六个月则为净亏损140万港元。董事会认为，净亏损增加主要归 因于建筑合约收入大幅下降约89.8%，由截至2024年9月30日止六个月的1.04亿港元，降至截至2025年9 月30日止6个月的1060万港元。此乃源于房地产市场整体下行，以及集团于期内承接的新项目价值减少 所致。 ...

智通财经APP讯，中国新消费集团(08275)公布，该集团预期于截至2025年9月 30日止6个月，将取得净 亏损约700万港元至约1000万港元，而截至2024年9月30日止六个月则为净亏损140万港元。董事会认 为，净亏损增加主要归因于建筑合约收入大幅下降约89.8%，由截至 2024年9月 30日止六个月的1.04亿 港元，降至截至 2025年9月 30日止6个月的1060万港元。此乃源于房地产市场整体下行，以及集团于期 内承接的新项目价值减少所致。 ...

Summary of Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the real estate market in China, particularly focusing on the performance of the top 100 real estate companies in October 2025, highlighting significant challenges and trends in the industry [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Sales Performance**: In October 2025, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies amounted to 250 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 42%. Cumulatively, sales for the first ten months of the year reached 2.57 trillion yuan, down 16% year-on-year, indicating a significant contraction in the industry [3][4]. 2. **Market Conditions**: The overall real estate market remains sluggish, with key cities experiencing a drop in supply and transaction volumes. The supply in 30 key cities fell by 56% month-on-month, marking the lowest level since 2020, while transaction volumes decreased by 36% year-on-year [5][10]. 3. **New Home Market Pressure**: The new home market in core cities is under considerable pressure, with declining sales rates for high-end projects. For instance, in Shanghai, the sales of luxury projects have slowed significantly, with some projects resorting to discounts to stimulate sales [6][7]. 4. **Inventory and Depletion Rates**: The inventory in 30 key cities stands at 217 million square meters, with a slight month-on-month decrease of 1% and a year-on-year decrease of 7%. The depletion cycle for new homes in Shenzhen exceeds 20 months, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [11]. 5. **Land Market Trends**: The land transaction value in October dropped by 33% year-on-year, with the average premium rate falling to below 3%, the lowest in recent history. This reflects a pessimistic outlook from developers regarding future market conditions [13][14]. 6. **Investment Behavior**: Some companies, such as China Overseas and China Merchants, were active in land acquisition in the first half of the year but have since adopted a more cautious investment strategy, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [1][14]. 7. **Future Market Outlook**: The market is expected to remain weak through the end of the year, with a potential slight recovery in sales as developers push for year-end performance. However, the overall market is projected to continue its downward trend into the next year, with new home prices expected to decline by about 5% [15][16][17]. 8. **Policy Impact**: New policies from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development are anticipated to be implemented, which may challenge cash flow for companies and local governments reliant on land sales [18]. 9. **Risks for Developers**: Developers face significant risks, including the devaluation of existing assets and high-cost land acquisitions that may not yield profitable returns. This is particularly concerning in major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [19]. Additional Important Insights - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a notable price decline, with a significant increase in listings, particularly in core cities like Shenzhen, where listings rose by 30% year-on-year [12]. - The performance of second and third-tier cities varies, with some cities like Chengdu and Xi'an maintaining relatively good market conditions, while others face challenges with unsold new products [9]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the real estate market in China.

Core Viewpoint - Poly Developments reported a significant decline in net profit by 75.31% for the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to market fluctuations and decreased project profitability [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Poly Developments achieved a contracted sales amount of 201.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.53%, and a contracted area of 10.10 million square meters, down 25.13% [1] - The company's operating revenue for the same period was 173.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.95% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.93 billion yuan, down 75.31% [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 1.74 billion yuan, a decline of 76.76% year-on-year [1] Quarterly Analysis - In Q1 2025, Poly Developments reported operating revenue of 54.27 billion yuan, an increase of 9.09%, but net profit decreased by 15.43% [2] - Q2 2025 saw a significant drop in net profit by 85.38%, with operating revenue of 62.59 billion yuan, down 30.07% [2] - Q3 2025 marked a drastic shift, with net profit turning negative at -0.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 299.19%, despite an operating revenue increase of 30.65% to 56.87 billion yuan [2] Market Context - The overall real estate market in China showed a decline, with new residential sales area down 5.5% and sales amount down 7.9% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - Real estate development investment decreased by 13.9%, and new construction area fell by 18.9% [1] Investment Income - Poly Developments experienced a "cliff-like" drop in investment income, from 1.64 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 to -0.15 billion yuan in 2025 [4] - Investment income from joint ventures and associates fell sharply from 1.52 billion yuan to -0.21 billion yuan, significantly impacting overall earnings [4] - In Q3 2025 alone, investment income turned from profit to a loss exceeding 1 billion yuan, indicating severe external pressures on the company [4]