Group 1: Core Views - The US Treasury's borrowing expectation in Q3 exceeds $1 trillion, an 82% increase, and debt issuance accelerates after the debt ceiling is raised; the auction of 5-year US Treasury bonds is unexpectedly weak, with overseas demand hitting a three-year low. China-US economic and trade talks begin in Stockholm, Sweden. China introduces a child-raising subsidy policy of 3,600 yuan per child per year for infants under 3 years old. The China Securities Regulatory Commission aims to consolidate the market's stable and positive trend, deepen reforms to stimulate the vitality of the multi-level market, and strengthen the foundation from both the asset and capital sides. Against the backdrop of a significant drop in anti-involution-related futures, the CSRC's call for strengthening the foundation, and high technical indicators, market sentiment may cool down, but with continuous hot topics in the sector, the slow bull trend of stock indices remains unchanged, and stock indices may fluctuate. Short-term defensive waiting is advisable [1]. - Attention should be paid to whether important meetings will bring incremental demand-side policies. If the demand side can be repaired under the support of policies to absorb the pressure of the current cost increase, it may still be unwise to be overly optimistic about the bond market [3]. Group 2: Strategy Recommendations - For stock indices, consider defensive waiting [2]. - For treasury bonds, expect a weakening trend with fluctuations [4]. Group 3: Market Review Stock Indices - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.16%, those of SSE 50 rose 0.36%, those of CSI 500 rose 0.09%, and those of CSI 1000 fell 0.04% [6]. Treasury Bonds - The 10-year main contract rose 0.18%, the 5-year main contract rose 0.13%, the 30-year main contract rose 0.56%, and the 2-year main contract rose 0.04% [7]. Group 4: Technical Analysis Stock Indices - The RSI indicator shows that the broader market has a risk of correction [6]. Treasury Bonds - The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [7]. Group 5: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-07-28 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,122.00 | 0.16 | 54,638 | 156,735 | | 2025-07-28 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,805.80 | 0.36 | 28,883 | 60,762 | | 2025-07-28 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,222.00 | 0.09 | 46,353 | 108,139 | | 2025-07-28 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6,602.00 | -0.04 | 116,079 | 180,433 | | 2025-07-28 | 10-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.40 | 0.18 | 78,985 | 187,839 | | 2025-07-28 | 5-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.72 | 0.13 | 71,923 | 148,362 | | 2025-07-28 | 30-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.78 | 0.56 | 120,609 | 120,283 | | 2025-07-28 | 2-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.36 | 0.04 | 43,197 | 101,434 | [8]

Group 1: Overall Information - The report is a financial futures daily report released on July 24, 2025, by the Research and Consulting Department of Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd [1][5] Group 2: Stock Index Core View - China's Ministry of Commerce announced that He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27 - 30. Media reports of a 15% tariff on the EU by the US were refuted by the White House. The EU plans to impose a 30% tariff on $100 billion of US goods. Trump claimed a US - Japan agreement with Japan accepting a 15% tax rate and opening auto and rice markets. The US Treasury Secretary is not in a hurry to decide Powell's successor. After the market sentiment cooled from coal mine production checks, trade news boosted market risk appetite, and the slow - bull trend of the stock index became clearer with its center rising [1] Strategy Recommendation - The stock index is expected to fluctuate upward [2] Market Review - The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures rose by 0.31%, 0.49%, 0.13%, and 0.06% respectively [6] Technical Analysis - The RSI indicator shows that the broader market has a callback risk [6] Group 3: Treasury Bonds Core View - On Tuesday, the bond market started to adjust. The odds space for long - term and ultra - long - term yields has opened. In the past month, due to factors like fund diversion and increased risk appetite, the yield bottom has gradually risen, and with the microstructure not yet repaired, the bond market may continue to fluctuate at the bottom. The sustainability of equities and commodities needs further observation [3] Strategy Recommendation - Pay attention to taking profits [4] Market Review - The main contracts of 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year treasury bonds fell by 0.12%, 0.09%, 0.22%, and 0.04% respectively [7] Technical Analysis - The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [7] Group 4: Futures Data - On July 23, 2025, the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various futures contracts are provided, including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000 stock index futures, and 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, 2 - year treasury bond futures [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: The US consumer confidence in May saw the largest increase in four years. Trump rarely praised the EU and was encouraged by the acceleration of trade negotiations. Japan's Ministry of Finance rarely "surveyed" the bond market and considered reducing the issuance of ultra - long bonds, leading to a violent rebound in Japanese bonds. In the domestic market, the rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the trading volume is insufficient. The stock index may fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Tuesday, without obvious negative news, the bond market yields rose by about 1bp across the board, with the long - end adjustment larger than the medium - and short - end. From the institutional net subscription desensitization data, it seems that pure bond funds experienced a large - scale redemption on Tuesday. The last similar redemption was in mid - March when banks began to cash in floating profits. There were also rumors in the market that commercial banks' motivation to cash in floating profits at the end of June was stronger than before. From the recent market micro - trends, treasury bonds performed weakly relative to policy financial bonds, and the bond - swap basis widened slightly, indicating a local supply - demand "imbalance" in the market. When "limited short - term downward space" and "being bullish but not buying" become market consensus, the impact of specific types of institutional trading behaviors on the market is magnified in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 index fell 0.51%, that of SSE 50 index fell 0.51%, that of CSI 500 index fell 0.24%, and that of CSI 1000 index fell 0.1% [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows that it may fluctuate weakly and there is an adjustment risk [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a defensive stance and wait and see [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract fell 0.11%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.03%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.26%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows that it will fluctuate and may rebound [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | CSI 300 Continuous Contract | 3809.20 | - 0.51 | 54529 | 140116 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | SSE 50 Continuous Contract | 2668.60 | - 0.51 | 28167 | 51671 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | CSI 500 Continuous Contract | 5578.00 | - 0.24 | 52001 | 109673 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | CSI 1000 Continuous Contract | 5915.00 | - 0.10 | 140778 | 186517 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 108.73 | - 0.11 | 58575 | 165848 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 106.03 | - 0.03 | 43924 | 128934 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 119.46 | - 0.26 | 62401 | 92091 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 102.41 | - 0.02 | 32028 | 104798 | [12]