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中国电信(601728):业绩超预期,Q2增速领跑行业
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-15 13:58
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected Q2 performance, leading the industry in growth rates. For the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 269.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with service revenue of 249.1 billion yuan, up 1.2%, surpassing the overall industry growth rate of 1.0% [1][2] - The company's EBITDA for the first half was 80.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 23.0 billion yuan, up 5.5%, indicating strong profitability [1] - The company is expected to maintain good growth in revenue, EBITDA, and net profit for the full year [2] Summary by Sections Business Performance - Mobile communication services revenue reached 106.6 billion yuan in the first half, growing 1.3% year-on-year. The number of mobile users reached 433 million, with a net increase of 8.19 million users, including 282 million 5G users, a net increase of 31.29 million, resulting in a 5G penetration rate of 65.2%, up 6.1 percentage points from the end of 2024 [3] - Fixed-line and smart home services revenue was 64.1 billion yuan, a 0.2% year-on-year increase, with broadband access revenue at 45.7 billion yuan, up 1.7% [3] Digital Business Development - The company's digital industry revenue was 74.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. The AIDC revenue was 18.4 billion yuan, up 7.4%, while Tianyi Cloud's revenue reached 57.3 billion yuan, growing 3.8% [4] - The company has upgraded its computing infrastructure, with over 580,000 data center racks and a computing power scale of 77 EFLOPS, a 23% increase from the end of 2024 [4] Cost Management and Cash Flow - The company has implemented AI-driven cost management, resulting in a 0.9% year-on-year increase in operating expenses, with a decrease in network operation costs by 2.3% [5] - Capital expenditures decreased significantly by 27.5% year-on-year to 34.2 billion yuan, with free cash flow increasing by 13.9% [6][12] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.1812 yuan per share, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 72%, up 1.9 percentage points [13] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 2.3%, 2.1%, and 2.0% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of 6.4%, 6.2%, and 6.0% respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 19, 18, and 17 times [14]