Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1][4][10] Core Views - JD Group is expected to report a strong revenue performance for Q3 2025, with an estimated revenue of CNY 293.9 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 13%. This growth is primarily driven by government subsidies boosting retail revenue growth [3][5] - The Non-GAAP net profit margin is projected to decline by 4 percentage points year-on-year to 1.4% for Q3 2025, influenced by ongoing losses in the new food delivery business, although there are signs of improvement in user experience (UE) [3][6] - The company is adjusting its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to CNY 1,334.8 billion, CNY 1,419.7 billion, and CNY 1,488.2 billion respectively, with a slight increase in net profit forecasts for the same period [4][10] Revenue Performance - Q3 2025 revenue is expected to be CNY 293.9 billion, up 13% year-on-year, with JD Retail revenue growth anticipated at 11%. The growth in the electronics category is expected to be in the high single digits, while daily necessities are projected to grow in double digits [3][5] - The food delivery business is expected to see a significant revenue increase of 230% in Q3 2025, benefiting from seasonal demand [3][5] Operational Insights - The estimated GMV growth for JD in Q3 2025 is around 15%, with market share continuing to recover, largely driven by the "old-for-new" subsidy program in the electronics category [3][5] - Active purchasing users and purchase frequency in e-commerce are showing strong growth, with 40% of new food delivery users converting to main site users by July [3][5] Profitability Analysis - The Non-GAAP net profit margin is expected to be 1.4% for Q3 2025, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year. However, JD Retail's operating profit margin is projected to improve by 0.3 percentage points due to enhanced supply chain efficiency and increased commission and advertising revenue [6][10] - The losses from the new food delivery business are impacting overall profitability, but improvements in delivery efficiency and targeted subsidies are helping to reduce these losses [6]

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，预计25Q3京东集团-SW(09618)总收入同比+12.6%，Non- gaap归母净利润约42亿元。Q3预计零售收入预计维持10%左右双位数增长，日百类及3P收入均维持较好 增势，零售经营利润率表现好于预期。长期看好公司自营壁垒下的增长韧性以及供应链强议价能力下的 利润提升空间，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 招商证券主要观点如下： Q3集团及零售收入预计增速符合预期，日百类及3P收入增势稳健 2025Q3预计集团总收入同比+12.6%，京东零售收入同比+10%，基本符合市场预期;分品类来看，带电 类由于8月底开始逐步进入国补高基数，以及去年8月黑悟空神话对电脑销售拉动较强带来高基数，Q3 带电类增速逐步放缓，预计后续高基数及国补额度有所收紧的驱动下，带电类增速将有所承压;日百收 入在商超类、时尚家居、健康等品类健康增势下预计Q3将维持较快增速;3P商家广告及佣金收入预计Q3 也有望维持Q2的较快增势。 利润端来看，预计Q3京东零售经营利润率同比提高约0.3pct达到5.5%左右，主要源于供应链驱动的GPM 提升，以及广告佣金高利润率业务的增速更快收入占比提升。Q3集团No ...

8月14日晚，京东集团发布2025年二季度及中期业绩。2025年第二季度收入3567亿元，同比增长 22.4%。归属于公司普通股股东的净利润为人民币62亿元，2024年同期为人民币126亿元。非美国通用 会计准则下归属于公司普通股股东的净利润为人民币74亿元，2024年同期为人民币145亿元。其中，京 东零售二季度收入同比增长20.6%，经营利润率达到4.5% ，创下京东历史上所有大促季度的最高纪录。 ...