Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1][4][10] Core Views - JD Group is expected to report a strong revenue performance for Q3 2025, with an estimated revenue of CNY 293.9 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 13%. This growth is primarily driven by government subsidies boosting retail revenue growth [3][5] - The Non-GAAP net profit margin is projected to decline by 4 percentage points year-on-year to 1.4% for Q3 2025, influenced by ongoing losses in the new food delivery business, although there are signs of improvement in user experience (UE) [3][6] - The company is adjusting its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to CNY 1,334.8 billion, CNY 1,419.7 billion, and CNY 1,488.2 billion respectively, with a slight increase in net profit forecasts for the same period [4][10] Revenue Performance - Q3 2025 revenue is expected to be CNY 293.9 billion, up 13% year-on-year, with JD Retail revenue growth anticipated at 11%. The growth in the electronics category is expected to be in the high single digits, while daily necessities are projected to grow in double digits [3][5] - The food delivery business is expected to see a significant revenue increase of 230% in Q3 2025, benefiting from seasonal demand [3][5] Operational Insights - The estimated GMV growth for JD in Q3 2025 is around 15%, with market share continuing to recover, largely driven by the "old-for-new" subsidy program in the electronics category [3][5] - Active purchasing users and purchase frequency in e-commerce are showing strong growth, with 40% of new food delivery users converting to main site users by July [3][5] Profitability Analysis - The Non-GAAP net profit margin is expected to be 1.4% for Q3 2025, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year. However, JD Retail's operating profit margin is projected to improve by 0.3 percentage points due to enhanced supply chain efficiency and increased commission and advertising revenue [6][10] - The losses from the new food delivery business are impacting overall profitability, but improvements in delivery efficiency and targeted subsidies are helping to reduce these losses [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that JD Group's total revenue for Q3 2025 is expected to grow by 12.6% year-on-year, with Non-GAAP net profit estimated at around 4.2 billion yuan [1][2] - Retail revenue is projected to maintain a double-digit growth of approximately 10%, with steady growth in daily necessities and third-party (3P) revenue [1][2] - The retail operating profit margin is expected to improve by about 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, reaching around 5.5%, driven by supply chain efficiencies and higher-margin advertising revenue [2] Group 2 - JD's Double Eleven sales event has started earlier this year, on October 9, with simplified promotional strategies aimed at providing low-priced goods to consumers [3] - The company is focusing on joint marketing efforts between e-commerce and food delivery during the promotional period [3]

Core Insights - JD Group reported its Q2 and mid-year results for 2025, showing a revenue of 356.7 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 6.2 billion RMB, down from 12.6 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 7.4 billion RMB, compared to 14.5 billion RMB in 2024 [1] - JD Retail's Q2 revenue grew by 20.6%, with an operating profit margin of 4.5%, marking the highest record for all promotional quarters in JD's history [1]