前言 美国40万吨库存背后的"巨型吸管" 美国正在用金融工具制造一个"巨型吸管"，把全球铜资源源源不断地吸进自己的仓库。 12月3日，当伦敦铜价冲破11540美元历史高位时，COMEX库存已突破40万吨，占全球交易所库存的 70%。 这意味着美国只买全球7%的铜，却控制了70%的流通资源，形成了极端的供需失衡。 12月3日，伦敦铜价冲破11540美元历史高位，而美国COMEX库存突破40万吨，占全球70%。 这种极端反差正在重构全球铜市场，当COMEX仓库里堆积如山的铜锭闪闪发光时，中国下游企业主却 只能盯着电脑屏幕上跳动的价格，苦苦等待补库机会。 美国为何疯狂囤积这种金属？而中国是怎么破局的呢？ 编辑：N 当美国掌控70%的显性库存，中国进口商将面临双重压力，一是LME库存枯竭导致的现货溢价，二是 COMEX库存垄断推高的基准价格。 2022年青山镍事件已经证明，金融工具可被转化为供应链武器，如今铜市场正在重演这一逻辑。 美国的算盘很直白，用库存和关税拖慢中国新能源与高端制造的节奏。 有意思的是，这种操作与232条款和50%关税同步实施，形成了一套精密的组合拳。 232条款将铜列为"国家安全材料"，8月起对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has decided to suspend all non-USD denominated metal options trading, reflecting the fragility of the current international pricing system dominated by a single currency and market [1][2] Group 1: LME's Decision and Market Impact - The LME's announcement on November 3 indicated that non-USD denominated metal options contracts, such as those in euros and renminbi, lacked liquidity and had higher maintenance costs than benefits, leading to the suspension effective November 10 [1] - Following the announcement, there was a significant market reaction, with Shanghai Futures Exchange's night session metal contracts hitting the upper limit while LME's USD contracts faced rare declines, creating the largest price differential since 1987 [1][3] Group 2: Background and Challenges to the USD System - The decision comes amid unprecedented challenges to the USD system, including a US federal debt exceeding $38 trillion and real yields on US Treasuries failing to cover inflation costs, undermining the attractiveness of USD assets [2] - There is a noticeable trend of foreign central banks diversifying their reserve assets, with increased demand for gold and new multi-lateral payment mechanisms reflecting concerns over the existing clearing system [2] Group 3: Implications for Global Metal Trading - The LME's actions may strengthen the USD's position in the short term but also accelerate the fragmentation of the global metal trading system, increasing exchange rate risks and transaction costs for companies in Europe and Asia [3] - Japanese and German manufacturers, for instance, will face heightened complexity in risk management as they shift to USD contracts, dealing with both metal price and USD exchange rate fluctuations [3] Group 4: Opportunities for Chinese Enterprises - For Chinese companies, the LME's announcement presents both challenges and opportunities, as they may face a shortage of hedging tools and rising costs in the short term [3] - However, China's significant consumption of global copper and control over 55% of electrolytic aluminum capacity provide a natural anchor for renminbi pricing, alongside improvements in financial infrastructure and regional cooperation initiatives like the Belt and Road [3] Group 5: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historically, attempts to enforce a single currency have often backfired, as seen in the 1960s with the UK's strict foreign exchange controls, which inadvertently facilitated the rise of the USD [4] - The overemphasis on the USD system may lead to strong alternative demands, indicating that the transformation of the global metal trading system will require a new balance deeply connected to the real economy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has decided to suspend all non-USD denominated metal options trading, reflecting the fragility of the current international pricing system dominated by a single currency and market [1][2]. Group 1: LME's Decision and Market Impact - The LME's announcement on November 3 indicated that non-USD denominated metal options contracts had "long-term lack of liquidity," leading to the suspension effective November 10 [1]. - Following the announcement, there was a significant market reaction, with Shanghai Futures Exchange's metal contracts hitting the limit up, while LME's USD contracts faced a rare limit down, creating the largest price differential since 1987 [1][3]. Group 2: Background and Challenges to the USD System - The USD system is facing unprecedented challenges, with U.S. federal debt surpassing $38 trillion and real yields on U.S. Treasuries failing to cover inflation costs for major holders [2]. - There is a noticeable trend of foreign central banks diversifying their reserve assets, reflecting a decline in confidence in the USD [2]. - The U.S. is also pushing for a "critical minerals alliance" among G7 countries and others, aiming to reinforce the USD's dominance in metal pricing [2]. Group 3: Implications for Global Metal Trading - The LME's actions may strengthen the USD's position in the short term but also accelerate the fragmentation of the global metal trading system [3]. - Companies in Europe and Asia will face increased currency risk and transaction costs due to the loss of non-USD hedging tools [3]. - There are signs of capital shifting towards regional platforms like Shanghai and Dubai, indicating a potential reallocation of global liquidity [3]. Group 4: Opportunities for Chinese Enterprises - The LME's announcement presents both challenges and opportunities for Chinese enterprises, with potential short-term pressures on hedging tools and costs [3]. - China's significant consumption of copper and control over a large share of electrolytic aluminum production positions it to gain more pricing power in the long term [3]. - The development of financial infrastructure and initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative may enable China to establish a more autonomous pricing system [3]. Group 5: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical instances of enforced currency unification have often led to unintended consequences, suggesting that the current overemphasis on the USD may generate strong demand for alternatives [4]. - The transformation of the global metal trading system will require a deep coupling with the real economy to achieve a new balance [4].