Core Viewpoint - The New York raw sugar futures prices have fallen to their lowest level in five years due to rising expectations of global supply surplus, with a significant drop of 14% so far this month, potentially marking the largest monthly decline since December 2023 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The most active raw sugar futures contract dropped by 2.43%, closing at 14.07 cents per pound [1] - Analysts from StoneX Group Inc. indicate that the significant drop in October highlights "structural major pressure" on futures prices, driven by an anticipated surplus of 2.8 million tons in the 2025/26 season [1] - Following Brazil's "Sugar Week," market estimates for the 2025/26 sugar supply surplus have been raised from an initial consensus of 2 million tons to 2.77 million tons, with potential for further upward adjustments [4] Group 2: Supply Factors - Wall Street analysts expect Brazil, a leading sugar producer, to maintain high sugar production levels in 2025/26, with multiple investment institutions raising their production and export forecasts for Brazil [4] - The core drivers of the anticipated surplus include increased production in Brazil, rising corn ethanol output, and India's potential recovery in sugar exports, which may exceed StoneX's current estimate of 1.5 million tons [4] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The rapid rise in the penetration of GLP-1 weight loss drugs in the U.S. is impacting sugar consumption, with surveys indicating a reduction in spending on sugary products by approximately 6% to 10%, thereby lowering marginal demand growth expectations [5] - The volatility of the USD/BRL exchange rate has also affected Brazil's export rhythm, with a weaker BRL favoring exports and further pressuring prices [5] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Ongoing U.S. government shutdown is contributing to traders' pessimism regarding the commodity market, as the CFTC has been unable to release data on large institutional investors and speculators since September 23 [5] - Recent price movements show a decline in New York raw sugar futures by 1.32%, with prices reported at 14.23 cents per pound, while London white sugar prices fell by 1.08% [5]

Core Insights - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 1.37%, closing at 15.88 cents per pound on Friday, June 27 [1] - ICE white sugar futures increased by 1.89% during the same period [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures decreased by 5.19%, while coffee "C" futures dropped by 3.95% [1] - Robusta coffee futures also saw a decline of 2.11% [1] - New York cocoa futures rose by 9.52%, reaching $8,947 per ton, continuing an upward trend [1] - London cocoa futures increased by 6.88% [1] - ICE cotton futures experienced a rise of 3.93% [1]

Group 1 - Speculators increased their net long positions in ICE Brent crude oil by 29,159 contracts to 196,922 contracts, reaching a ten-week high [1] - The net long position in Robusta coffee rose to 3,506 contracts, with the absolute value of short positions reaching 11,474 contracts, marking an 18-month high [1] - The net long position in white sugar decreased to 5,232 contracts, hitting a 16-week low, while the absolute value of short positions reached a four-month high [1] Group 2 - The net long position in London cocoa reached 10,590 contracts [1]

Group 1 - The net long positions held by speculators in ICE Brent crude oil increased by 8,813 contracts to 167,763 contracts, reaching a two-month high [1] - The absolute value of long positions in Brent crude oil reached a two-month high, while the absolute value of short positions reached an approximately eight-month high [1] - The net long positions in London cocoa reached a three-week low [1] Group 2 - The net long positions in Robusta coffee decreased to 2,979 contracts, marking a two-year low; the absolute value of long positions reached a two-year low, and the absolute value of short positions reached an approximately 18-month low [1] - The net long positions in sugar fell to a 15-week low, with the absolute value of short positions also reaching a 15-week low [1]