Workflow
罗布斯塔咖啡
icon
Search documents
“君研咖啡”系列报告之二:咖啡:结构性矛盾凸显
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 10:11
全球阿拉比卡咖啡市场的结构性矛盾持续凸显。拉长周期来看,虽然价格创出历史新高,但是阿拉比 卡咖啡产量仍低于历史最高产量,阿拉比卡咖啡产量占比逐年下降的趋势更加明显。USDA 预计 25/26 年 全球阿拉比卡咖啡产量较历史最高产量 630 万吨(18/19 年)低 47 万吨(-7.53%),罗布斯塔咖啡产量 则创出历史新高。从消费结构来看,近年现磨咖啡消费快速增长,对阿拉比卡咖啡的需求旺盛。一方面是 产量下降,另一方面是需求增长,阿拉比卡咖啡市场的结构性矛盾持续凸显。 2025 年 10 月 10 日 咖啡:结构性矛盾凸显 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 尹恺宜 | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0019456 | yinkaiyi@gtht.com | | 李隽钰 | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021380 | lijunyu@gtht.com | 报告导读: 2023 年 4 季度以来,在全球农产品价格震荡下行至生产成本附近的大背景下,ICE 美国咖啡价格逆势 大幅上涨并创出历史新高,目前仍处于历史 ...
打工人的续命水,快要喝不起了?
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-29 11:10
Core Insights - The price of coffee cherries in Yunnan has increased nearly threefold over the past year, reaching around 11 yuan per pound, leading many farmers to switch from corn to coffee cultivation [1] - Climate change has significantly impacted the production of Arabica coffee, causing a reduction in suitable growing areas and driving up prices [2][12] - The coffee industry faces challenges from climate instability, which affects both production and the economic viability of smallholder farmers [8][17] Price Dynamics - Coffee cherry prices have surged from 3-5 yuan to approximately 11 yuan per pound within a year, prompting a shift in crop cultivation among farmers [1] - The price of raw coffee beans has also increased, with some reports indicating prices reaching 70-100 yuan per kilogram, compared to 35-40 yuan previously [14] - Despite rising coffee prices, consumers continue to purchase coffee at lower prices due to the relatively small proportion of coffee bean costs in the final product [14][16] Climate Change Impact - Arabica coffee is highly sensitive to climate conditions, with optimal growth requiring average temperatures around 20°C and annual rainfall exceeding 1200mm [8] - Extreme weather events, such as prolonged droughts and excessive rainfall, have led to significant production challenges, particularly in major coffee-producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam [8][12] - Predictions indicate that by 2050, suitable areas for coffee cultivation could decrease by approximately 50% due to climate change [12][18] Smallholder Farmers - Approximately 95% of the world's coffee farms are operated by smallholders, many of whom live below the international poverty line [9][10] - Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, as their primary income source is threatened by reduced yields and increased production costs [17] - The coffee value chain is heavily reliant on these small farmers, who contribute about 80% of global coffee production [9][10] Industry Response - Companies like Starbucks are taking steps to ensure sustainable sourcing and reduce their carbon footprint, recognizing the risks posed by climate change [21] - There is a growing need for the coffee industry to adapt by developing more resilient coffee varieties and implementing sustainable agricultural practices [19][20] - The shift towards higher altitude coffee cultivation may become necessary as lower altitude areas become less suitable for Arabica coffee production [18][19]
越南咖啡迎来四年最大丰收 全球供应短缺有望缓解
智通财经网· 2025-09-19 11:57
智通财经APP获悉,由于降雨充沛,越南咖啡产量有望达到四年来的最高水平,这可能有助于缓解供应 紧张的局面,并对全球咖啡价格产生下行压力。根据Bloomberg News的调查,2025-26年度咖啡产量预 计将增至176万吨,比去年增长6%,相当于约2940万袋(每袋60公斤)。 越南最大咖啡产区多乐省邦美蜀咖啡协会主席Trinh Duc Minh表示:"咖啡树目前长势良好,收获季将于 下个月开始。近期天气条件对咖啡作物十分有利,降雨量充沛。" 越南是世界上最大的罗布斯塔咖啡豆生产国,这种咖啡豆常用于制作速溶咖啡和意式浓缩咖啡。随着更 多咖啡豆流入市场,这将有助于缓解因前两个季节收成不佳而导致的全球咖啡豆短缺问题,并有助于压 低上个月飙升42%的咖啡价格。 罗布斯塔咖啡价格上个月因供应担忧而上涨 本周咖啡价格再次出现大幅波动。由于对巴西供应紧张状况的担忧、美国的关税政策以及获利回吐等因 素的影响,纽约阿拉比卡咖啡期货价格接近历史最高水平,随后回落,导致市场波动幅度达到四年来的 最高水平。罗布斯塔咖啡在伦敦的价格也在本周初大幅上涨,随后出现下滑。 Hedgepoint Global Markets 分析师Lal ...
【环球财经】巴西国家供应公司下调2025年咖啡产量预期至5520万袋
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-07 02:09
Core Insights - Brazil's National Supply Company (Conab) has revised its coffee production forecast for 2025 to 55.2 million bags, a decrease of approximately 500,000 bags from the May estimate [1] - Despite being in a relatively low production "biennial cycle," overall coffee production is expected to increase, with a projected average yield increase of 3% and a planting area increase of 0.9% [1] - Arabica coffee production is forecasted at 35.1 million bags, down from the previous estimate of 37 million bags, while Robusta production is expected to reach 20 million bags, up from the earlier forecast of 18.7 million bags [1] Industry Overview - Brazil remains the world's largest coffee producer and exporter, making Conab's regular forecasts significant for the international market [1]
中国人太爱喝咖啡!中非咖啡合作升级
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-07 06:13
Group 1 - The core point of the articles highlights the increasing competitiveness of African coffee in the Chinese market due to the implementation of a new zero-tariff policy on products from 53 African countries [1][3] - China is actively engaging with major African coffee-producing countries to expand its overseas supply chain, with companies like Kudi Coffee leading the way by signing agreements to invest in coffee production in Rwanda and other African nations [1][2] - The demand for coffee in China is on the rise, with the market size expected to reach 617.8 billion yuan in 2023 and potentially exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, indicating a strong opportunity for African coffee exporters [3] Group 2 - Ethiopia's coffee exports to China have surged, with a nearly fivefold increase in imports, reaching 30,621 tons in the first half of the year, while Uganda's exports also doubled from 2,660 tons to 6,150 tons [3] - The ongoing drought in Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, has led to a decline in Arabica coffee production, creating an opportunity for countries like Ethiopia and Uganda to enter the Chinese market [4] - The collaboration between Ethiopian coffee producers and Chinese companies aims to enhance trade opportunities and meet the growing coffee demand in China [2][3]
洲际交易所(ICE):7月29日当周,对冲基金所持ICE布伦特原油净多头头寸增加33,959手合约,至261,352手合约,创六周新高。所持柴油净多头头寸增至100,644手合约,创逾三年新高。所持罗布斯塔咖啡净空头头寸创两年新高。所持白糖净多头头寸创16周新高。
news flash· 2025-08-01 17:59
Core Insights - Hedge funds increased their net long positions in ICE Brent crude oil by 33,959 contracts to 261,352 contracts, marking a six-week high [1] - Net long positions in diesel rose to 100,644 contracts, reaching a level not seen in over three years [1] - Net short positions in Robusta coffee hit a two-year high [1] - Net long positions in sugar reached a 16-week high [1]
洲际交易所(ICE)罗布斯塔咖啡价格下跌近3%,至每吨3247美元
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-01 12:36
Core Point - The price of Robusta coffee on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has decreased by nearly 3%, reaching $3,247 per ton [1] Group 1 - The decline in Robusta coffee prices indicates potential market volatility [1] - The current price level may impact producers and consumers in the coffee industry [1]
8月1日电,洲际交易所(ICE)罗布斯塔咖啡价格下跌近3%,至每吨3247美元。
news flash· 2025-08-01 12:30
Group 1 - The price of Robusta coffee on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has decreased by nearly 3%, reaching $3,247 per ton [1]
7月18日电,洲际交易所(ICE)罗布斯塔咖啡价格飙升近3%,达到每吨3407美元。
news flash· 2025-07-18 08:51
Group 1 - The price of Robusta coffee on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) surged nearly 3%, reaching $3,407 per ton [1]
7月17日电,洲际交易所(ICE)罗布斯塔咖啡价格下跌近4%,至每吨3289美元。
news flash· 2025-07-17 12:08
Core Viewpoint - The price of Robusta coffee on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has decreased by nearly 4%, reaching $3,289 per ton [1] Group 1 - The decline in Robusta coffee prices indicates potential market volatility and changing supply-demand dynamics [1]