2025年，全球关税摩擦愈演愈烈，美联储年内三度降息累计75个基点，人工智能狂潮席卷全球，地缘紧 张局势加剧，金融市场波动剧烈。 美国股市三大股指均实现两位数的涨幅，连续第三年上涨；美元去年下跌逾9%，录得2017年以来最大年 跌幅；美国10年期收益率自2020年以来首次出现年度下跌，而两年期收益率则有望创下2020年以来的最 大年度跌幅。 大宗商品方面，黄金创下46年来最大年度涨幅，创下有史以来最强劲的年度表现，白银和铂金年度表现 更是创下纪录；LME期铜创下16年来最大年度涨幅，年底再创纪录新高；CBOT大豆录得三年来首个年度 涨幅，由于中国重返美国市场；油价去年大跌近20%，创2020年以来最大年度跌幅。追踪全球大宗商品走 势的CRB指数去年上涨0.69%。 **贵金属成为最大赢家** **美国股市录得两位数涨幅** 美国股市三大股指2025年录得强劲年度涨幅，标普500指数、道琼斯工业指数和纳斯达克指数今年均实现 两位数的涨幅。这标志着三大股指连续第三年上涨，上一次出现这种情况是在2019-2021年。这一年的过 山车式行情主要由特朗普总统的关税不确定性以及围绕人工智能（AI）重点股票的亢奋情绪主导。 ...

Commodity Prices - Aluminum futures increased from 1969.5 to 2161.8, a rise of 9.76% [3] - Lithium futures rose from 1584 to 1695.5, marking a 7.04% increase [3] - Brent crude oil decreased from 61.22 to 60.8, a decline of 0.69% [3] - Natural gas prices fell from 3.852 to 3.641, a drop of 5.48% [3] Stock Market Indices - The Hang Seng Index increased from 25630.54 to 26338.47, reflecting a growth of 2.76% [3] - The S&P 500 index decreased from 6896.24 to 6858.47, a decline of 0.55% [3] - The Nasdaq index fell from 23419.08 to 23235.629, a decrease of 0.78% [3] Foreign Exchange Rates - The US Dollar Index rose from 98.3 to 98.49, an increase of 0.19% [3] - The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate decreased from 1.1737 to 1.1716, a decline of 0.18% [3] - The CNH to US Dollar rate fell from 6.9843 to 6.9704, a decrease of 0.20% [3] Bond Yields - The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds decreased from 104.4296 to 104.3711, a drop of 0.06% [3] - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell from 112.6093 to 112.1875, a decline of 0.37% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "shutdown" crisis in the U.S. government has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to increased risk aversion in the market, as evidenced by the surge in gold prices and strong performance in major overseas stock markets, including Chinese concept stocks [1]. Market Performance Summary - **Gold Prices**: COMEX gold rose from $3883.9 to $4039.9, marking a 4.02% increase during the holiday period [1]. - **Copper Prices**: COMEX copper increased from $4.8810 to $5.0670, reflecting a 3.81% rise [1]. - **Aluminum Prices**: LME aluminum prices went up from $2664.5 to $2750.5, a 3.23% increase [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The DAX 30 index rose from 23775.12 to 24597.13, a 3.46% increase, while the Nasdaq increased from 22591.154 to 23043.379, a 2.00% rise [1]. - **Oil Prices**: Brent crude oil decreased slightly from $66.78 to $66.08, a 1.05% drop, while U.S. crude oil fell from $63.18 to $62.19, a 1.57% decrease [2]. Commodity Performance Summary - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices increased from 4369 to 4546, a 4.05% rise [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: CBOT soybean oil rose from 49.67 to 51.34, a 3.36% increase [1]. - **Natural Gas**: U.S. natural gas prices increased from $3.253 to $3.341, a 2.71% rise [1]. - **Zinc Prices**: LME zinc prices rose from $2917.5 to $2995.0, a 2.66% increase [1].

Core Insights - ICE cotton prices have fallen to a three-week low, raising questions about whether the upcoming USDA export sales report could provide a turnaround for the declining cotton market [1] - The impact of monsoon rains in Pakistan is being monitored, as it may lead to new supply challenges in the cotton market [1] Group 1 - ICE cotton prices have reached a three-week low, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] - The USDA export net sales report scheduled for Thursday is anticipated to influence cotton prices, potentially reversing the current downward trend [1] - The situation in Pakistan, particularly the monsoon rains, could create additional supply issues for the cotton industry [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - ICE cotton has rebounded due to the recovery of overall risk appetite in the financial and commodity markets, but the lack of obvious fundamental drivers and factors like good US cotton growth and weak global consumption prospects limit its upside potential [1][6][19]. - Domestic cotton futures have risen significantly with an expanding 9 - 1 spread, mainly driven by concerns over tight old - crop inventories. The bullish sentiment in the domestic commodity market has strengthened this positive factor, showing a stronger near - term and weaker long - term trend in futures. However, the accelerated rise is more influenced by technical buying and market sentiment than fundamentals, and there is a risk of decline when market sentiment cools or fundamental negatives appear [2][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data | Futures | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Volume (Lots) | Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main Contract | 67.44 | 69.15 | 67.36 | 68.76 | 1.34 | 1.99 | 89187 | - 1938 | 152744 | 1339 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract | 13880 | 14375 | 13765 | 14270 | 385 | 2.77 | 1456374 | 487140 | 580773 | 25216 | | Cotton Yarn Main Contract | 20070 | 20600 | 19980 | 20520 | 425 | 2.11 | 39318 | 3115 | 19058 | - 3547 | [5] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton**: Rebounded this week due to the recovery of overall risk appetite in the financial and commodity markets, and supported by commercial bargain - hunting [1][6]. - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending July 10, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts decreased by 93% week - on - week and 89% compared to the four - week average. 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 1.66 tons. The total signed sales volume of 2024/25 US upland and Pima cotton accounted for 108% of the annual forecast export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume accounted for 90% of the total annual contracts [7]. - **Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: Sowing progress is slightly slower than last year. Cotton planting area as of July 11 was 9.3 million hectares. Cotton textile product exports in June decreased by 4% month - on - month and 3% year - on - year, and ready - made garment exports decreased by 13% month - on - month [8]. - **Brazil**: The US tariff increase on Brazilian goods has raised concerns in the domestic textile industry. The trading of new cotton in the 2025 season is slow, and farmers have sold about 70% of the total output [9]. - **Pakistan**: Cotton import demand is moderate. Local cotton production is expected to be between 6.5 - 7.5 million bales, and the price of new cotton in Punjab in 2025/26 is about 16,500 - 16,700 rupees per mound [9]. - **Bangladesh**: Focusing on US tariff negotiations. Cotton imports in June were 12.3 tons, lower than in May and the same period last year. The cumulative imports in the first 11 months of this year increased by 11% compared to the same period in 2023/24 [10]. - **Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates**: As of the week ending July 18, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 73%, 64%, and 62% respectively [11]. 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Spot Market**: Spot trading is weak, but prices have risen sharply. Spinning mills mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and some large spinning mills locked in basis prices for better procurement on July 16 [12]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 18, there were 9532 registered warehouse receipts and 223 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 9755 receipts, equivalent to 409,710 tons [13]. - **Downstream Market**: The price of pure - cotton yarn has continued to rise, and actual transactions are gradually following up. The profit of spinning mills has not improved significantly, and the startup rate of inland spinning mills has continued to decline. The off - season in the cotton - fabric market continues, with low startup rates, slow sales, and increasing inventory [14]. 3.3 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton needs to wait for a driver to break through the oscillation range this year. For domestic cotton, continue to monitor the profit, startup rate, and finished - product inventory of downstream textile enterprises, especially the startup rate of Xinjiang spinning mills. Pay attention to supply - related policies (such as reserve policies and import quota policies) and demand - related policies (such as "anti - involution" in the industrial sector). Be aware of the risk of decline when market sentiment cools or fundamental negatives appear [19].

Core Insights - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 1.37%, closing at 15.88 cents per pound on Friday, June 27 [1] - ICE white sugar futures increased by 1.89% during the same period [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures decreased by 5.19%, while coffee "C" futures dropped by 3.95% [1] - Robusta coffee futures also saw a decline of 2.11% [1] - New York cocoa futures rose by 9.52%, reaching $8,947 per ton, continuing an upward trend [1] - London cocoa futures increased by 6.88% [1] - ICE cotton futures experienced a rise of 3.93% [1]