伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货
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美元持续走强施压 沪铜价格高位回调
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-11-04 06:34
Core Viewpoint - The strengthening of the US dollar is pressuring copper prices, leading to a high-level correction in domestic copper futures, with the main contract reported at 85,760 yuan/ton, down 1.52% [1] Market Overview - LME copper futures have declined due to the strong US dollar, which has dampened market sentiment. However, concerns over supply shortages are helping to limit the decline in copper prices [2] - Chile's copper production in September was 456,663 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 7.79% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% [2] - As of November 3, domestic electrolytic copper inventories were at 206,000 tons, an increase of 17,400 tons from October 27. Shanghai's inventory rose by 12,800 tons, Guangdong's by 200 tons, and Jiangsu's by 6,000 tons [2] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI for October fell to 48.7%, indicating continued contraction for eight months, with weak demand and employment, while inflation is cooling. The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for October was finalized at 50, with Germany and France continuing to contract, and weak new orders hampering recovery [2] Institutional Insights - According to a report from Industrial Futures, the strong dollar is pressuring copper prices, but the trend of liquidity easing remains unchanged. The easing of US-China trade tensions is seen as a positive macro environment, and ongoing supply concerns from major mining companies reducing annual production guidance are supporting copper prices. The strategy suggests that the recent correction in copper prices is limited, and previous long positions can be maintained [3] - Everbright Futures noted that the recent high-to-low fluctuations in copper prices indicate weak short-term bullish sentiment. November marks a transition between peak and off-peak seasons, and the continuous inventory accumulation in the domestic market raises concerns about demand at high copper prices. However, there is no panic sentiment in the market, suggesting that the correction in copper prices may be limited, presenting a buying opportunity on dips, with a focus on long positions in the first half of next year [3]