Core Viewpoint - The strengthening of the US dollar is pressuring copper prices, leading to a high-level correction in domestic copper futures, with the main contract reported at 85,760 yuan/ton, down 1.52% [1] Market Overview - LME copper futures have declined due to the strong US dollar, which has dampened market sentiment. However, concerns over supply shortages are helping to limit the decline in copper prices [2] - Chile's copper production in September was 456,663 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 7.79% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% [2] - As of November 3, domestic electrolytic copper inventories were at 206,000 tons, an increase of 17,400 tons from October 27. Shanghai's inventory rose by 12,800 tons, Guangdong's by 200 tons, and Jiangsu's by 6,000 tons [2] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI for October fell to 48.7%, indicating continued contraction for eight months, with weak demand and employment, while inflation is cooling. The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for October was finalized at 50, with Germany and France continuing to contract, and weak new orders hampering recovery [2] Institutional Insights - According to a report from Industrial Futures, the strong dollar is pressuring copper prices, but the trend of liquidity easing remains unchanged. The easing of US-China trade tensions is seen as a positive macro environment, and ongoing supply concerns from major mining companies reducing annual production guidance are supporting copper prices. The strategy suggests that the recent correction in copper prices is limited, and previous long positions can be maintained [3] - Everbright Futures noted that the recent high-to-low fluctuations in copper prices indicate weak short-term bullish sentiment. November marks a transition between peak and off-peak seasons, and the continuous inventory accumulation in the domestic market raises concerns about demand at high copper prices. However, there is no panic sentiment in the market, suggesting that the correction in copper prices may be limited, presenting a buying opportunity on dips, with a focus on long positions in the first half of next year [3]

【冠通期货研究报告】 宏观影响，沪铜回调 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 31 日 【行情分析】 今日沪铜低开低走，日内下降。宏观方面美联储如期降息 25 个基点，将联邦基金利 率下调至 3.75%-4.00%，但后续降息概率降低。供应端，印尼 Grasberg、智利 El Teniente、刚果金卡莫阿等接连发生事故或停产，导致全球铜精矿供应短缺，国内铜矿 库存连续去化，TC/RC 费用高企，提供铜价上行的主要驱动力，消息人士表示，中国铜 原料联合谈判小组决定暂不设定第四季度铜精矿处理费/精炼费指导价。2025 年 11 月铜 产量还有概率继续走低，目前有检修计划的冶炼厂 5 家，且阳极板供应将持续紧张，铜 冶炼原料端缺乏。下游受高价铜的抑制，购买积极性不佳，近日社会铜库存温和增加， 关注后续铜库存消化情况，是否有延续累库趋势。综合来看，美联储 12 月降息概率下 降，美元偏强压制铜价，且前期铜价偏高下游畏高情绪严重，目前下跌以回调思路看 待，供需偏紧下，铜价中长期依然偏强。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 投 ...

Group 1 - Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (00358.HK) experienced a decline of over 6%, specifically a drop of 6.15%, trading at HKD 34.18 [1] - The trading volume reached HKD 1.313 billion [1]

Core Insights - LME copper inventory has confirmed a bottom, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [1] - Recent US CPI data has reduced the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing interest rate cuts in the near term [1] - Institutions believe that the copper price correction is not yet over, suggesting ongoing volatility in the market [1] Industry Analysis - The confirmation of LME copper inventory bottom may influence future trading strategies and market sentiment [1] - The impact of US CPI data on Federal Reserve policy could lead to shifts in investment strategies across various sectors, particularly those reliant on copper [1] - Ongoing monitoring of copper prices is essential as institutions anticipate further corrections, highlighting the need for investors to stay informed [1]