Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - Yesterday, copper prices continued to rise, driven by a weak US dollar and supply shortages. Macroscopically, the US government's shutdown and weak employment data led to expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed. Fundamentally, supply shortages in copper mines, such as the ongoing shutdown of the Grasberg mine and disruptions in other mines, have strengthened the support for copper prices. The主力 is advised to focus on the support level of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures prices fluctuated widely, with the main contract closing down 0.28%. Spot prices in various regions generally declined, and the supply was abundant. The supply pressure persisted, with high domestic operating capacity and increasing overseas production. The demand was weak, with electrolytic aluminum plants having high raw material inventories and low procurement enthusiasm. It is expected that the short - term spot price of alumina will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,850 - 3,050 yuan/ton. - Shanghai aluminum futures prices fluctuated strongly, with the main contract moving up to around 21,000 yuan/ton. The market was affected by macro factors such as the US government shutdown and expectations of Fed rate cuts. In terms of supply, domestic electrolytic aluminum production declined slightly in September, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased. The demand showed structural characteristics, with some sectors improving but high aluminum prices suppressing downstream orders. After the holiday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased, and the spot premium was under pressure. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating between 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy futures prices strengthened with the rise of aluminum prices, and the SMM spot ADC12 price also increased. The cost was supported by the rise of LME aluminum during the holiday and the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply was affected by raw material shortages and unclear tax policies, and the demand showed a mild recovery but with limited volume. The domestic social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the import loss expanded. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract operating between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices maintained a strong operation, supported by low inventory and a weak US dollar. The LME zinc inventory continued to decline, and the US government shutdown led to a weak US dollar index. Domestically, the supply was expected to be loose, and the demand was not outstanding. The "strong outside, weak inside" pattern of zinc prices has been obvious since the second half of 2025. The short - term price of Shanghai zinc may rise due to macro - driving factors, but the fundamentals have limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. It may maintain an oscillation pattern, with the main contract between 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - Tin prices strengthened. The supply of tin ore remained tight, with low processing fees for smelters. Domestic tin ore imports in August were at a low level, and the crackdown on illegal tin mines in Indonesia before the holiday increased supply concerns. The demand was weak, with insufficient orders in the solder industry due to the sluggish consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Although AI computing power and photovoltaic industry growth drove some tin consumption, it was not enough to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. It is expected that tin prices will continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. The follow - up depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar. If the supply recovers, prices may weaken; otherwise, they may remain high [9]. Nickel - After the holiday, the nickel market showed a strong trend, driven by macro - sentiment and the overall boost of the non - ferrous sector. The US government shutdown and the uncertainty of the Fed's rate - cut path affected the market. In the industry, the policy expectations for the Indonesian nickel ore end have increased. The nickel ore price remained firm, but the nickel - iron market was sluggish, and the demand for stainless steel was weak. The demand for nickel sulfate was good in the peak season, but there were concerns about new production capacity and sustainable demand in the medium term. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate strongly in the short term, with the main contract between 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - On the first trading day after the holiday, the stainless steel market rose slightly, affected by macro factors. The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel - iron price was weakly stable, and the chromium - iron market was driven by demand and cost. The supply pressure was increasing, with an expected increase in steel production in September. The demand improvement was not obvious, and the social inventory decline was slow. It is expected that the short - term stainless steel price will oscillate and adjust, with the main contract between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - On the first trading day after the holiday, the lithium carbonate market oscillated. The main contract LC2511 rose 0.27%. The supply - side news included the approval of mining reports by Guoxuan High - tech and the acquisition of a mining license by Zangge Mining. The fundamentals were in a tight balance during the peak season. The production increased last week, mainly from new salt - lake projects and increased lithium - spodumene subcontracting. The demand was optimistic, with expected increases in iron - lithium and ternary orders. The whole - chain inventory continued to decline last week, with upstream smelters reducing inventory and downstream seasonal restocking. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will oscillate, with the main price center between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose to 85,740 yuan/ton, up 3.00% from the previous day. The premium/discount of SMM 1 electrolytic copper remained unchanged at 15 yuan/ton. Other copper prices also showed varying degrees of increase, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.13% [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month. In August, electrolytic copper imports were 264,300 tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic ports decreased, and the operating rates of copper rod production decreased [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum rose to 20,960 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The premium/discount decreased. Alumina prices in various regions declined. The import loss of aluminum increased, and the monthly spread showed different changes [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month. The operating rates of some aluminum processing industries increased slightly, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions increased by about 0.95 - 0.96%. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions also increased. The monthly spread showed different changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly, while the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased. The import and export of unforged aluminum alloy ingots increased. The operating rates of some enterprises showed different trends, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot rose to 22,140 yuan/ton, up 1.42%. The import loss decreased slightly, and the monthly spread changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, down 4.17% month - on - month. In August, refined zinc imports increased by 43.30%. The operating rates of zinc - related industries decreased slightly, and the inventory of zinc showed different changes [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin rose to 284,200 yuan/ton, up 2.53%. The LME 0 - 3 premium/discount decreased significantly [9]. Fundamental Data - In August, tin ore imports decreased slightly. In September, SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% month - on - month. The inventory of tin decreased in different markets [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose to 123,600 yuan/ton, up 0.94%. The import loss increased, and the monthly spread changed [11]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased slightly, while imports decreased. The inventory in different markets showed different trends, with an increase in LME inventory [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends. The raw material prices were relatively stable, and the monthly spread changed slightly [12]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased slightly, while imports increased and exports increased slightly. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained stable, and the price of lithium - spodumene concentrate decreased. The monthly spread changed [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased, and the demand also increased. The inventory decreased in different links, with upstream smelters reducing inventory and downstream increasing inventory [14].

Group 1 - The global copper market is experiencing significant price increases due to multiple supply disruptions and rising institutional price forecasts, with copper prices up 20% year-to-date [1] - The London Metal Exchange three-month copper price rose 2% to $10,409 per ton, continuing a trend of over 2% increase from the previous week, while the US Comex October contract increased by 2.6% to $4.841 per pound, marking the best settlement price since July 30 [1] - Major supply disruptions include a long-term production cut at Freeport-McMoRan's second-largest copper mine due to a landslide, and production halts at Chile's El Teniente mine and Congo's Kamoa copper mine due to accidents, exacerbating market concerns over supply shortages [1] Group 2 - Several Wall Street institutions have raised their copper price forecasts based on supply shortage expectations, with JPMorgan significantly increasing its Q4 LME copper price forecast from $9,350 per ton to $11,000, anticipating a supply shortfall exceeding 200,000 tons [2] - Bank of America has raised its 2026 copper price forecast by 11% to $11,313 per ton, and its 2027 forecast by 12.5% to $13,501 per ton, reflecting a bullish outlook on copper prices [2] - Goldman Sachs revised its annual supply gap expectation from a surplus of 10,500 tons to a shortage of 5,500 tons, indicating a complete reversal in supply-demand balance, while predicting December copper prices to fluctuate between $10,200 and $10,500 per ton [2]

SHMET 网讯：铝月度金属指数 (MMI) 维持横盘整理，并略有上行，8月至9月上涨0.56%。与此同时，全球铝价创下年初以来的新高。 尽管上海期货交易所（SHFE）和伦敦金属交易所（LME）的库存都处于低位，但也已开始反弹。持续的库存增长将有助于平息供应方面的担忧。伦敦金属 交易所库存下降的部分原因并非特殊的需求状况，而是由于持续的乌克兰战争导致LME决定阻止俄罗斯材料进入仓库。迄今为止，中国继续购买俄罗斯铝 材，从而填补了欧洲留下的缺口。因此，尽管制裁转移了出口方向，但并未将俄罗斯铝材从全球市场上剔除。 全球供应担忧推动铝价上涨 美国铝需求下降 市场对供应短缺的担忧逐渐显现，铝价突破横盘整理趋势，伦敦金属交易所 (LME) 铝价在9月16日收盘时触及六个月高点。 与此同时，美国关税抑制了美国铝需求状况，并改变了贸易流向。据美国铝业协会称，2025年上半年北美铝需求下降了4.4%。除铝箔外，所有细分市场的 需求均有所下降。 多年来，全球产能过剩加剧。需求状况依然疲软。 在需求放缓和关税压力下，加拿大生产商已将铝出口转向欧洲。事实上，最近的数据显示，欧洲在魁北克铝出口中的占比从第一季度的0.2%上升至第二季 ...

Group 1 - The global aluminum market is facing the most severe supply shortage in over two decades, with a potential crisis of inventory depletion if prices remain at current levels [1] - Citi analysts predict that aluminum prices need to exceed $3,000 per ton to stimulate necessary supply growth, with a long-term potential increase of 50-60% towards $4,000 per ton [1][4] - The report emphasizes the strong demand outlook for aluminum driven by sectors such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, and emerging technologies like robotics and AI [4][6] Group 2 - China's idle aluminum capacity has been fully consumed, entering a phase of no new primary aluminum production growth, while demand continues to surge [4][6] - Indonesia is being looked at to fill the supply gap, but even with all planned projects, it will only partially alleviate the shortage, with projected capacity reaching 2.3 million tons by 2029 [7][8] - The report indicates that aluminum prices must remain above $3,000 per ton to provide sufficient returns for new projects, with a potential need for prices to reach around $4,000 per ton if supply does not meet demand [9][10] Group 3 - The aluminum market is undergoing a fundamental structural shift characterized by low inventory, lack of supply elasticity, and strong emerging demand, indicating a bullish long-term outlook [12] - The report highlights that the risk of actual deficits, inventory depletion, and spot premiums in the aluminum market is significantly greater compared to copper [12]

Group 1 - Australian lithium mining companies experienced significant stock price declines due to a combined loss of $1.2 billion in the first half of the year attributed to price crashes [1] - IGO's stock fell by up to 8.4%, while Mineral Resources dropped by up to 6.1%, with other companies like Pilbara Minerals and Liontown Resources also facing declines [1] - The lithium industry is facing challenges from oversupply and declining electric vehicle demand, leading to asset impairments and cost control issues, with prices down 86% from historical highs at the end of 2022 [1] Group 2 - Mineral Resources reported an annual net loss of 904 million AUD (approximately 588 million USD) for the period ending June 30, compared to a profit of 125 million AUD in the same period last year [1] - IGO reported a net loss of 954.6 million AUD and fully impaired its Kwinana lithium hydroxide refining plant assets [1] - UBS raised its lithium spodumene price forecast by 9% due to anticipated supply disruptions in China, and increased IGO's target price by 20% [2] Group 3 - UBS indicated a higher likelihood of supply disruptions in China by 2026, potentially leading to a market supply shortage, although supply is expected to recover later [2] - IGO's CEO acknowledged challenges for the long-term operation of the Kwinana lithium hydroxide refining plant but expressed a positive outlook on market fundamentals [2]

Group 1 - In June 2025, global refined tin production is projected to be 30,000 tons, while consumption is expected to reach 33,400 tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 3,500 tons [2] - For the first half of 2025, global refined tin production totaled 179,000 tons, with consumption at 186,800 tons, leading to a supply deficit of 7,800 tons [2] - In June 2025, global tin ore production is estimated at 25,700 tons [2] Group 2 - The total global tin ore production for the first half of 2025 is reported to be 154,500 tons [2]

Group 1 - The London market for Robusta coffee futures is experiencing its largest weekly increase in over 20 years, with a cumulative rise of 12% this week, the highest since June 2010 [1] - Supply tightness from the two major producing countries, Vietnam and Brazil, is disrupting the market, with Vietnam entering its off-season and reduced harvests limiting supply [1] - Brazilian farmers are currently reluctant to sell their stocks, focusing primarily on fulfilling forward contract deliveries [1] Group 2 - Sugar futures have declined ahead of the release of Brazil's late July production data, despite ongoing production lagging behind last year's figures [1] - The market's concerns over supply shortages have eased as more sugarcane is being used for sugar production rather than ethanol [1]

Supply Chain Performance - Supply chain performance worsened in July [1] - Chinese manufacturers faced shipping delays and supply shortages [1] Input Costs and Pricing - Raw material prices increased in July, leading to the first rise in average input prices in 5 months [1] - Despite rising costs, Chinese manufacturers lowered sales prices due to increased market competition [1]

Core Viewpoint - European natural gas prices have risen due to new pressure from Trump on Russia, with a significant increase in trading activity and potential supply constraints impacting the market [1] Group 1: Market Impact - Dutch TTF natural gas futures rose by 0.7% to €34.97 per megawatt-hour, with a weekly increase exceeding 5% [1] - The potential for severe sanctions on Moscow's oil exports could impact major buyers like India if a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine is not reached [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts from ANZ Bank indicate that tightening global supply may intensify competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in the international market [1] - Increased demand for LNG in Asia is exacerbating the risk of supply shortages, while Europe is accelerating its gas stockpiling ahead of winter [1]

Overall Core View - The supply-demand contradiction of lead is still expected to exist, and the price is supported [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Market Data Summary Futures Price - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day; the closing price of the 3M electronic disk of LME lead was 2,015 dollars/ton, up 0.17% [1] Trading Volume - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 34,982 lots, a decrease of 9,677 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 6,342 lots, a decrease of 3,570 lots [1] Open Interest - The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 41,631 lots, a decrease of 3,239 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 136,798 lots, an increase of 595 lots [1] Premium and Discount - The premium and discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -45 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium and discount was -25.97 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.47 dollars/ton [1] Import and Export Profit and Loss - The import profit and loss of lead ingot spot was -699.81 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.39 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three was -566.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.6 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 60,059 tons, unchanged; the inventory of LME lead was 262,500 tons, a decrease of 2,425 tons [1] Other Prices - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1] Comprehensive Profit and Loss - The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -507 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton [1] News Summary - There are potential "tariff wars" between Brazil and the US, the EU and the US, and the US and Japan. Brazil may respond if Trump doesn't change his mind, the EU may impose over 90 billion euros in countermeasures if tariff negotiations don't progress, and Trump plans to impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods while Japan will invest 550 billion dollars in the US [2] - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) stated that the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons in May 2025, compared with a supply shortage of 6,000 tons in April [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2]