Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - On March 13, platinum and palladium prices continued to decline. The PT2606 contract closed down 3.72% to 541.6 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed down 2.43% to 408.1 yuan/gram. The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran shows no sign of easing, with high oil prices and weakening interest - rate cut expectations, which strengthen the US dollar index and suppress platinum and palladium prices. The global platinum market is expected to face a supply shortage for the fourth consecutive year, providing support for platinum prices, but the suspension in late 2026 and potential palladium market surplus may limit the upside. In the short - term, platinum and palladium are likely to maintain a volatile and downward trend. After the Middle East geopolitical situation becomes clear, investors can consider going long on platinum at low prices or continue to hold the [long platinum, short palladium] strategy [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Domestic Prices (yuan/gram)**: Platinum futures主力收盘价 dropped 4.08% to 541.6 from 564.65; spot platinum (99.95%) fell 0.91% to 544 from 549; platinum basis (spot - futures) decreased 115.34% to 2.4 from - 15.65. Palladium futures主力收盘价 declined 2.04% to 408.1 from 416.6; spot palladium (99.95%) remained unchanged at 411; palladium basis (spot - futures) decreased 151.79% to 2.9 from - 5.6 [4] - **International Prices (15:00, dollars/ounce)**: London spot platinum dropped 3.27% to 2100.3 from 2171.358; London spot palladium fell 2.41% to 1609.499 from 1649.252; NYMEX platinum decreased 3.47% to 2094.6 from 2170; NYMEX palladium declined 1.93% to 1625.5 from 1657.5 [4] - **Internal - External 15:00 Spread (yuan/gram)**: The spread of domestic platinum - London platinum decreased 27.17% to 15.05 from 20.66; the spread of domestic platinum - NYMEX platinum decreased 21.55% to 16.47 from 21.00; the spread of domestic palladium - London palladium decreased 34.54% to 3.41 from 4.59; the spread of domestic palladium - NYMEX palladium decreased 56.94% to 0.58 from 1.35 [4][5] - **Price Ratios**: The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum to palladium decreased to 1.3271 from 1.3554; the ratio of London spot platinum to palladium decreased to 1.3049 from 1.3166 [5] Inventory and Position Data - **Inventory (troy ounces)**: NYMEX platinum inventory remained unchanged at 204,678; NYMEX palladium inventory remained unchanged at 582,441 [5] - **Position**: NYMEX total platinum position decreased 1.99% to 68,758 from 70,154; NYMEX non - commercial net long position of platinum increased 6.20% to 13,832 from 14,690; NYMEX total palladium position decreased 2.57% to 15,679 from 16,093; NYMEX non - commercial net long position of palladium decreased 196.89% to 161 from - 156 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is facing a severe supply shortage, highlighted by a recent price increase of up to 50% for NAND flash memory from manufacturers [1]. Group 1: Business Adjustments - The company has shifted its business focus to supply cloud service providers and AI hyperscale data center clients, increasing the revenue share from enterprise customers from 10% in the previous quarter to 30% [3]. - Due to supply chain tensions, the company is now requiring shorter payment cycles from customers, with some clients being asked to prepay in full [3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Strategies - The company has signed long-term supply agreements (LTA) with six global NAND manufacturers and two DRAM suppliers to secure supply rather than control costs [3]. - Negotiations are ongoing with some suppliers for prepayment of NAND chip orders in exchange for priority supply rights [4]. Group 3: Inventory and Financial Concerns - The company's inventory value has increased from NT$35.6 billion to NT$50 billion, but concerns remain regarding the adequacy of funds and inventory [4]. Group 4: Technological Development - The company's QLC UFS products are currently being validated by leading smartphone manufacturers, with plans to deliver PCIe 6.0 enterprise SSD controller samples by August this year, while also advancing PCIe 7.0 technology development [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities, including financial futures, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black commodities, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. Geopolitical factors, especially the Middle - East conflict, are the core influencing variables, causing significant price fluctuations in multiple markets. Short - term market volatility is high, and the market is mainly driven by geopolitical news. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: Overseas risk aversion may be transmitted to the A - share market, but the impact is diminishing. Domestic policy signals during the Two Sessions provide support, and the market is in short - term shock repair. Unexpected policies may drive the stock index to strengthen [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The policies of the Two Sessions have a neutral impact on the bond market. If the stock market adjustment intensifies, the bond market may rise due to risk - aversion. Short - term focus should be on the A - share trend and geopolitical situation [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The US - Iran conflict is the core influencing variable, with factors such as blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and postponed Red Sea resumption expectations being positive. However, issues like conflict sustainability, weak demand, and shipping capacity spill - over risks still exist, and short - term market volatility is extremely high [3]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The Middle - East conflict and non - farm data affect interest - rate cut expectations. Supply - side cost increases provide a long - term upward basis, but short - term adjustment risks due to postponed interest - rate cut expectations should be watched [4]. - **Gold & Silver**: The recent weakness of precious metals is due to the Middle - East situation weakening interest - rate cut expectations, leading to higher US dollar and bond yields. Short - term technical corrections after geopolitical risk mitigation should be watched [5]. - **Copper**: Last week, the copper price fell from a high, and this week it will be in a game between high inventory and peak - season expectations. The key window to verify the inventory inflection point is in mid - to late March [5]. - **Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts dominate the price trend. The US - Israel - Iran conflict affects aluminum supply in the Middle - East, and the price will show different performances under different conflict scenarios [6]. - **Alumina**: The US - Iran conflict has limited impact on the domestic fundamentals, but it follows the rise of aluminum prices. The medium - to long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up relationship with Shanghai aluminum, and has strong support below [7]. - **Zinc**: Supply may be affected by the Iran situation, and demand - side inventory pressure is large. Short - term metal prices may be suppressed [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The annual nickel ore production estimate has limited impact on the industry chain. The first half of the year has a tight quota. The market is in the post - holiday recovery stage, and the peak - season expectation supports downstream demand [9]. - **Tin**: The Iran situation and non - farm data support the metal. Supply is tight, and demand is starting to resume. High inventory suppresses the price, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction speed and the development of the Iran situation [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short - term, the market's concern about demand has increased, but the long - term downstream demand growth logic remains unchanged [11][12]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The industry is at the bottom of the current production - capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" process and supply - demand optimization signals [12]. - **Lead**: The current supply - demand situation is weak, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback on the market during the delivery week [12]. Black Commodities - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The Iran geopolitical conflict drives up the prices of raw materials, forming cost support. After the Two Sessions, the real - estate policy is stable, and the short - term rebound height is limited [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - term price has support due to tight tradable resources, but the upside is limited by high supply, weak demand, and long - term geopolitical structural issues [14]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Domestic coal mine复产 and increased Mongolian coal customs clearance bring supply pressure. Coke production may increase, but the terminal steel demand restricts price elasticity [15]. - **Ferrosilicon & Silicomanganese**: The short - term cost support is strengthening, but the weak downstream demand and high inventory of steel products limit the upward space [16]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Middle - East situation is the core trading logic. The US - Iran conflict has led to supply shortages, and the market is highly volatile. Short - term attention should be paid to the Strait of Hormuz navigation and oil - producing countries' inventory changes [17]. - **Fuel Oil**: Chinese exports and the Middle - East conflict affect the Asian gasoline market. The short - term Asian gasoline price difference remains high, and the core drivers are geopolitical situation and Chinese export policies [17]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is expected to increase, and inventory has seasonally accumulated. The asphalt price will follow the cost - end crude oil, and short - term geopolitical factors are the most important [18][19]. - **LPG**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the core trading point. The supply disruption and US cold wave have pushed up the price. The length of the blockade determines the price trend [20]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict has changed the import expectation, and the MTO profit expansion may drive the methanol price to catch up with the olefin increase [21]. - **Plastic**: The Middle - East situation has led to supply concerns, and the supply - reduction and demand - increase pattern makes the short - term market run strongly [21]. - **Rubber**: Geopolitical conflicts support the synthetic rubber price, which in turn boosts natural rubber. The supply - demand利多 and macro利空 coexist, and short - term geopolitical factors dominate the trend [22]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war has created a global urea supply gap, and the international price has risen. The domestic market is in a tight balance, and geopolitical risks are the key variables [22]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The US - Israel - Iran conflict has affected refinery operations. Downstream demand for restocking and export expectations are positive, and the short - term price is driven by geopolitical conflicts [23]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply - side maintenance may increase, and demand is stable but weak. The inventory situation is better than expected. The medium - to long - term supply is expected to be high [24]. - **Glass**: The current production and sales are weak, and the market is in the recovery stage. High inventory and supply return expectations limit the price increase, and demand needs to be verified [25]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and the price is in a weak and volatile state [26]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: The current hog market is mainly trading the post - Spring Festival weak - demand reality. The price decline is supported by secondary fattening sentiment, but the upward driving force is weak [27]. - **Oilseeds**: The April China - US negotiation expectation, rising international fertilizer prices, and improved export expectations support the soybean price. The domestic market will follow the US soybean performance in the short - term [28][29]. - **Oils**: The recent strength of the oil market comes from the crude oil and diesel markets. Short - term attention should be paid to the US - Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz navigation [29]. - **Cotton**: The current domestic supply - demand tightening expectation supports the cotton price, but the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton and geopolitical risks put pressure on the upside. The short - term price may be in a narrow - range shock adjustment [30]. - **Sugar**: The market lacks a clear trend - reversal basis, and the core contradiction is low valuation but lack of continuous upward driving force [31]. - **Apple**: The apple futures market is running strongly, driven by both fundamentals and delivery logic. The short - term support is strong [31]. - **Jujube**: The market focus is on the demand side. The post - Spring Festival downstream sales are average, and the price is under pressure and may maintain a low - level shock [32][33].

Oil Prices Surge - Crude oil prices are experiencing significant increases, with West Texas Intermediate surpassing $92 per barrel and Brent also exceeding $92, marking a day-over-day gain of 12.6% [1][2] Supply Chain Concerns - Qatar's energy minister warns that if tankers continue to idle in the Strait of Hormuz due to safety concerns, energy production may halt within days, potentially driving oil prices up to $150 per barrel [2][4] - The global oil market is currently at 105 million barrels per day, with 20 million barrels per day passing through the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the critical nature of this chokepoint [5] Impact on Airlines - Airlines are facing significant stock declines, partly due to predictions of a supply crunch and concerns over terrorism affecting shipping routes [6] Geopolitical Risks - The situation in the Middle East is exacerbated by terrorist threats, which are causing shipping disruptions and increasing the risk for oil tankers [6][10] - Recent incidents, such as an LNG tanker explosion due to a drone attack, underscore the unprecedented risks in the maritime oil transport sector [9][10] Insurance and Market Reactions - The U.S. government's announcement of a $20 billion insurance promise for maritime oil tankers has not significantly impacted oil prices, indicating the market's skepticism regarding the reliability of such measures [11][13] - The complexity of insuring maritime vessels poses challenges, as companies question the credibility of government-backed insurance compared to existing policies [12][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On March 4, platinum and palladium prices continued to be weak. The PT2606 contract closed down 4.55% to 563.5 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed down 2.78% to 433.8 yuan/gram. Geopolitical conflicts and energy price increases reignited inflation concerns and economic recession fears, leading to a global stock market slump, increased liquidity risk, and reduced the Fed's rate - cut expectations, which suppressed precious metal prices. The global platinum market is expected to have a supply shortage of 240,000 ounces in 2026, providing support for platinum prices, but Trump's new tariff policy may ease the supply shortage. In the short - term, platinum is expected to oscillate within a range, and investors can wait to buy at low prices after market sentiment stabilizes [5] Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Fluctuation - The domestic futures closing price of platinum (active contract) was 563.5 yuan/gram, down 1.19% from the previous value; the palladium futures closing price (active contract) was 433.8 yuan/gram, down 0.02% from the previous value. The spot price of platinum (99.95%) was 600 yuan/gram, and the spot price of palladium (99.95%) was 400 yuan/gram. The platinum basis (spot - futures) was 32.7 yuan/gram, down 34.25%; the palladium basis was 16.7 yuan/gram, down 20.85% [5] - The London spot platinum price was 2146 dollars/ounce, down 2.52%; the London spot palladium price was 1693.614 dollars/ounce, down 2.46%. NYMEX platinum was 2150.4 dollars/ounce, down 2.40%; NYMEX palladium was 1712.5 dollars/ounce, down 2.00% [5] - The US dollar/renminbi central parity rate was 6.9088, up 0.05%. The spread between the domestic platinum price and the London platinum price was 24.58 yuan/gram, up 38.64%; the spread between the domestic platinum price and the NYMEX platinum price was 23.47 yuan/gram, up 35.67%. The spread between the domestic palladium price and the London palladium price was - 1.94 yuan/gram, down 537.62%; the spread between the domestic palladium price and the NYMEX palladium price was 3.74 yuan/gram, down 179.24% [5] - The ratio of domestic platinum to palladium was 1.3144, down 0.0154; the ratio of London spot platinum to palladium was 1.2671, down 0.0007 [5] Inventory and Position - NYMEX platinum inventory was 202,181 troy ounces, unchanged from the previous value; NYMEX palladium inventory was 587,159 troy ounces, unchanged from the previous value [5] - NYMEX total platinum position increased 4.42% to 72,351; NYMEX non - commercial net long platinum position decreased 7.23% to 12,347. NYMEX total palladium position decreased 2.18% to 68,291; NYMEX non - commercial net long palladium position increased 34.96% to 664 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is expected to face a supply shortage for the sixth consecutive year by 2026, which may lead to continued strong performance in silver prices due to tight physical market supply [1]. Group 1: Silver Market Performance - COMEX silver closed at $94.36 per ounce on Friday, February 28, with a 6.18% increase, reaching a high of $94.76 and a low of $88.31 [1]. - Silver futures speculators increased their net long positions by 1,822 contracts, bringing the total to 7,981 contracts, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [3]. - The low registration warehouse ratio for silver continues to support short-term prices, with expectations of significant price volatility ahead [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Short-term outlook for silver is cautiously bullish, maintaining above the rising 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, with a key resistance target at $100.00 [4]. - The first resistance level for silver futures is at $88.00, with further resistance at the overnight high of $90.255; support levels are at $84.56 and $82.50 [4]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The overall bullish trend in precious metals, including gold, suggests that investors are increasing long positions to hedge against potential downside risks [3]. - The Trump administration is reportedly working on legal strategies to retain billions in tariffs deemed illegal by the Supreme Court, which may impact market dynamics [3].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley raised its earnings forecast and target price for Micron due to ongoing supply shortages, reiterating an "overweight" rating and increasing the target price from $350 to $450 [1] - Analyst Joseph Moore expressed excitement about the future despite changes in the DRAM sector over the past 12 months, anticipating further price increases this year due to significant price hikes in the first quarter and indications of a severe supply shortage expected to persist until 2026 [1] - DDR5 spot prices have risen by 30% year-to-date and are currently 130% higher than January contract prices, indicating that mainstream prices could still be over 10% lower than spot prices even if they double [1] Group 2 - HBM is a critical part of the market story, and maintaining a healthy market is essential for justifying higher valuations based on the logic of "higher highs and higher lows" [2] - Despite ongoing concerns about Micron's position in HBM4, the attractiveness of DDR5 prices is expected to prevent any negative impact on earnings [2] - Micron announced at an investor meeting that it is in mass production of HBM4 and has begun shipping to customers, with its HBM supply for the 2026 calendar year already sold out and yield rates meeting expectations [2]

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures rising 2.10% to $5084.20 per ounce and COMEX silver futures surging 8.00% to $83.05 per ounce [4]. - U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil main contracts both increased, with U.S. crude rising 1.37% to $64.42 per barrel and Brent crude climbing 1.59% to $69.13 per barrel [5]. - London base metals all went up, with LME tin leading the gain, rising 6.63% to $49815.0 per ton [5]. - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed results, with caustic soda rising over 2% and some other commodities also posting gains, while styrene and coking coal dropped over 1% [5]. 2. Important Information Macro Information - In January, China's futures market trading volume and turnover increased by 65.09% and 105.14% year - on - year respectively [8]. - As of February 9, 2026, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European Route) dropped 7.5% compared to the previous period [9]. - The Ministry of Commerce will take multiple measures in 2026 to promote the expansion and quality improvement of automobile consumption [9]. - The U.S. White House official expects employment data to decline but not to cause panic [10]. - The U.S. Maritime Administration advised ships to avoid Iranian waters [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of February 9, 2026, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 11.42% [11]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange adjusted the daily price limit and margin ratio for some contracts [13]. - The operating rate of Chinese LOW - E glass sample enterprises decreased by 2.7% [13]. Metal Futures - As of February 9, 2026, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major Chinese markets increased by 2.2 tons [15]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit and margin standards for lithium carbonate, platinum, and palladium futures contracts during the Spring Festival [15]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin ratio and price limit for some contracts [15]. - In Indonesia, some mines' RKAB were fully approved, and the price of far - month futures quotes increased [16]. - Due to production cuts by some enterprises, the output of polysilicon decreased in February and the inventory increased slightly [18]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary said that gold seemed to be in a typical speculative selling situation [19]. Black - Series Futures - From February 2 to February 8, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, as well as the shipment volume from Australia and Brazil [21]. - The arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased from February 2 to February 8, 2026 [21]. - Australian ports affected by the hurricane resumed operations [21]. - An Ansteel blast furnace will be under maintenance from February 25, affecting the daily iron - making output [22]. Agricultural Product Futures - In Argentina, the soybean sowing in the 2025/2026 season ended, but the crop growth and moisture conditions deteriorated [25]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume reached a near - record high, and is expected to decline during the Spring Festival [25]. - In Brazil, the soybean harvest area reached 16% of the expected area, and the second - season corn sowing area reached 22% [25]. - A U.S. exporter sold 26.4 tons of soybeans to China [26]. - India's palm oil demand is expected to rebound, but the competition from soybean oil will limit its growth [26]. - The U.S. soybean export inspection volume decreased, and the proportion of exports to China increased [26]. 3. Financial Market Financial - On Monday, the A - share market rose significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.41%, and market turnover increasing [28]. - The Hong Kong stock market also closed higher, but the southbound capital sold nearly HK$1.9 billion [28]. - By the end of January 2026, the number of Chinese billion - dollar private equity managers reached a record high, and most of them achieved positive returns [28]. - A JPMorgan analyst said that if anti - involution is effective, the A - share market may have a "slow - bull" market in 2026 [29]. Industry - The Ministry of Commerce will take measures to promote automobile consumption [30]. - Market regulators introduced new regulations for liquid food transportation [32]. - Chongqing introduced real - estate policies, including housing purchase subsidies [32]. - A global humanoid robot fighting league was launched [32]. - The "companion occupation" emerged, but needs standardization [32]. - Goldman Sachs predicted a severe supply shortage in the global memory market from 2026 - 2027 [33]. - Memory prices increased by 80% - 90% in the first quarter of 2026 [33]. Overseas - The U.S. is reducing tariffs on Bangladeshi goods [34]. - There were political upheavals in the UK [36]. - The U.S. employment growth is expected to slow down [36]. - The U.S. Energy Secretary will visit Venezuela [36]. - The French central bank governor will step down early [36]. - The Japanese Prime Minister proposed food tax cuts [36]. International Stock Markets - U.S. stock indexes closed higher, led by technology stocks [37]. - European stock indexes also rose, supported by sector rotation [38]. - Japanese and South Korean stock indexes soared, driven by different factors [40]. - A short - selling institution apologized for a false accusation against an AppLovin shareholder [40]. Commodities - Multiple exchanges adjusted the price limit and margin ratio for futures contracts [41]. - Hong Kong plans to include precious metals in the preferential tax system for funds and family offices [42]. - International precious metals, crude oil, and base metals futures generally rose [44]. Bonds - The Chinese bond market continued to perform well, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations [45]. - Japanese investors' bond - buying behavior changed in 2025 [45]. - Most U.S. Treasury yields declined [45]. Exchange Rates - The on - shore and offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, and the U.S. dollar index fell [47]. 4. Upcoming Data and Events - There are multiple economic data releases scheduled in different countries, such as Japan's January M2, Singapore's Q4 2025 GDP, etc. [49] - There are also various events, including central bank operations, corporate earnings reports, and official speeches [49]

Core Viewpoint - The Kathmandu Valley is experiencing a shortage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), primarily due to maintenance at the Barauni refinery in India, leading to reduced regular supply and increased logistical delays [1] Group 1: Supply Chain Issues - The Nepal Oil Corporation attributes the LPG shortage to maintenance at the Barauni refinery, which has forced Nepal to source from the more distant Paradip refinery, extending transportation time from three days to ten days [1] - Despite claims of a minor actual supply gap, increased winter demand and consumer panic buying have exacerbated market tensions, directly impacting residents' lives [1] Group 2: Import Data and Trends - LPG imports for the first half of the current fiscal year (up to mid-January) totaled 274,805 tons, valued at 27 billion rupees, representing a 9% decrease compared to the same period last year [1] - In contrast, the total import volume for the previous fiscal year was 554,612 tons, valued at 62.58 billion rupees, indicating a declining trend in overall imports prior to the current supply disruption [1] Group 3: Mitigation Measures - The Nepal Oil Corporation has implemented measures such as increasing import quotas to alleviate the LPG shortage [1]

Core Insights - Silver prices have experienced significant volatility, leading to implied volatility reaching its highest level in over 20 years [1][2] - Despite this volatility, the market does not seem to believe that it is likely to erase all gains made this year in the short term [1][2] Volatility Analysis - The one-month implied volatility for silver has surpassed 96%, which is higher than levels seen during previous crashes since data became available in 2002 [1][2] - The volatility curve has inverted and is steeper than it was on August 11, 2020, when spot silver fell by 15%, indicating that traders are cautious about potential pullbacks from recent price surges [1][2] Price Expectations - The lowest expected drop for spot silver, as accounted for by volatility sellers, is set at $82.86, suggesting a significant potential decline from the current price of nearly $110 per ounce [1][2] - However, it is important to note that at the beginning of the month, silver was priced just above $71, indicating that traders remain relatively optimistic about the ongoing supply shortage narrative supporting prices in the short term [1][2]