1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is positive, and the non - ferrous metals sector continues to strengthen. The prices of various non - ferrous metals show different trends, and different metals have different investment outlooks based on macro factors, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes. For copper, although the industrial side is weak recently, the macro sentiment is positive, and the copper price is expected to rise further. For zinc, the smelting cost center has moved up, and the zinc price is expected to strengthen in the short - term under the good macro sentiment. For nickel and stainless steel, the nickel price may run strongly in the short - term, and the stainless steel futures may fluctuate strongly in the short - term [9][87][195] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and various metal prices such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Different metals have different daily, weekly, and annual price changes. For example, the US dollar index is at 98.0 with a daily increase of 0.13%, a weekly decrease of 0.69%, and an annual decrease of 9.63%. The price of Shanghai copper is 98,720 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2.61%, a weekly increase of 5.95%, and an annual increase of 33.82% [6] 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: Positive. The better - than - expected US economic data shows strong economic resilience, and the Japanese government's large - scale budget plan improves global liquidity. The Chinese central bank maintains the LPR unchanged, and there is still room for domestic interest rate cuts [9] - **Raw Material**: Positive. The spot processing fee of copper ore is slightly lower, the port inventory has slightly increased, and the long - term processing fee benchmark for 2026 has changed [9] - **Smelting**: Neutral. The profit of smelters using spot copper ore has decreased, while the profit of those using long - term contracts has also declined [9] - **Demand**: Negative. The high copper price has led to large - scale shutdowns of downstream enterprises, and the operating rate of refined copper rods has further declined [9] - **Inventory**: Negative. It is the domestic consumption off - season, and the global visible copper inventory has significantly increased [9] - **Investment View**: Bullish. Although the industrial side is weak, the macro sentiment is positive, and there is a continuous premium for US copper, so it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on a single - side basis when the price is low; no arbitrage strategy is recommended [9] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: Slightly positive. The central bank of China implements a moderately loose monetary policy, and the better - than - expected US GDP growth and other factors have boosted market sentiment [87] - **Raw Material**: Slightly positive. The domestic processing fee has been reduced, and the supply of domestic ores is still tight, but the short - term processing fee is expected to remain low and stable [87] - **Smelting**: Neutral. The smelting profit is inverted again, but the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase in January [87] - **Demand**: Slightly negative. Affected by environmental protection, holidays, and the off - season, the galvanizing operating rate is expected to be weak [87] - **Inventory**: Slightly negative. The social inventory has decreased, while the LME inventory has increased, and the price ratio has been adjusted [87] - **Investment View**: Bullish. The smelting cost center of zinc has moved up, and the zinc price is expected to strengthen in the short - term under the good macro sentiment [87] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on a single - side basis; conduct long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [87] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Macro Factors**: Slightly positive. The better - than - expected US GDP data and the decline of the US dollar index have boosted the non - ferrous metals sector. Attention is paid to the introduction of domestic growth - stabilizing policies [195] - **Raw Material**: Positive. Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production in 2026, and the nickel ore premium in Indonesia is firm. The import of nickel ore in the Philippines has decreased, and the domestic port inventory has decreased [195] - **Smelting**: Neutral. The production of pure nickel at the end of the year has slightly decreased, the price of nickel iron has slightly rebounded, and the production of nickel sulfate has remained stable [195] - **Demand**: Neutral. The demand for stainless steel is still weak, and the procurement demand for nickel sulfate in the new energy sector is expected to weaken [195] - **Inventory**: Slightly negative. The domestic inventory has slightly decreased but remains at a high level [195] - **Investment View**: Bullish. The nickel price may run strongly in the short - term, and the stainless steel futures may fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in positions, macro news, and Indonesian policies [195] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on a short - term and low - price basis; do not conduct arbitrage; enterprises can conduct short - selling hedging when the price is high [195]

工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 沪铜月报 超级宏观月来临，铜震荡蓄势 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-05-30 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 观点摘要 目录 Contents 观点摘要 宏观经济 盘面情况 供应和需求 总结和展望 【核心观点】5月铜横盘整理，多空交织，铜或需回调蓄力来帮助市场重拾流动性，建议6月 守正出奇，区间操作，中长期依旧看好铜 【策略展望】 国际贸易法院裁定：关税非法（5月28日） 裁决核心： IEEPA 未授权总统征收全球性关税，国会授予总统"不受限制的关税权力"违宪；撤销相关行政令，永久禁止执 行，10天内生效。影响范围：叫停"对等关税"及2月对中、墨、加的附加关税，但保留232条款关税。市场反 应：全球股市大涨（纳指期货+1.4%，日经指数+1%）；避险资产暴跌（黄金跌至3245美元/盎司）。 2. 白宫紧急上诉（5月29日） 联邦巡回上诉法院：批准特朗普政府请求，暂缓执行国际贸易法院裁决，恢复关税征收。 白宫立场：发言人库什·德赛称裁决是"司法政变"，强调"非民选法官无权决定国家紧急状态应对"；威胁"动用 ...