Group 1 - The dairy market is segmented into various categories including adult milk powder, pure milk, yogurt, and ice cream, among others, totaling 10 primary categories and 16 subcategories [2][3] - In Q2 2025, the market share of ambient pure milk decreased to approximately 36.97%, while ice cream gained a market share of about 27.03% [7][8] - Low-temperature yogurt showed significant growth, achieving a market share of 15.72%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.73% [5][7] Group 2 - The overall dairy market is experiencing a structural upgrade, driven by rising consumer health awareness and the increasing coverage of low-temperature cold chains [5][8] - The market share of low-temperature pure milk and yogurt is growing faster than that of ambient products, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [5][8] - The price index for dairy products shows a mild recovery, although it remains below the baseline of 100, indicating ongoing pricing pressures [11][12] Group 3 - The top five SKUs in the ambient pure milk category are dominated by major brands like Yili and Mengniu, with a combined market share of 87.57% [30][36] - In the low-temperature yogurt segment, the CR5 market share is 66.99%, with major players including Junlebao and Mengniu [38][46] - The ice cream category has a CR5 market share of 58.74%, with Yili leading at 34.33% [62][68] Group 4 - The SKU count for ice cream is the highest among dairy categories, indicating a vibrant product iteration and market activity [16][24] - The average price of low-temperature pure milk has shown fluctuations, with a notable increase in Q1 2025 followed by a slight decrease in Q2 2025 [59][60] - The non-combination products in the low-temperature pure milk category show diverse consumer preferences, with a range of packaging sizes and price points [60][61]

Group 1 - The article reviews the dairy market for Q1 2025, comparing it to Q1 2024 and Q4 2024, using data from the "马上赢" brand CT, which covers over 30,000 brands and more than 14 million product barcodes across major cities in China [1][2] - The dairy product categories include adult milk powder, pure milk, yogurt, cheese, and others, totaling ten third-level categories and 16 fourth-level categories [2][3] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the market share of ambient pure milk remains dominant at approximately 51.61%, while low-temperature yogurt and ambient yogurt hold 14.27% and 12.47% respectively [5][6] - Low-temperature yogurt's market share increased by over 1% year-on-year, while ambient pure milk, ambient yogurt, and cheese experienced declines in both market share and sales [5][6] Group 3 - The analysis of key categories shows that ambient pure milk, low-temperature yogurt, and ambient yogurt account for over 91% of the dairy market share [6][7] - The sales performance of ambient pure milk and ambient yogurt has been particularly challenging, with sales down by over 13% year-on-year [7][8] Group 4 - The price index for dairy products indicates ongoing price pressure, with most categories remaining below the baseline of 100, suggesting a decline compared to the previous year [10][11] - The price index for ambient pure milk has been consistently lower than the overall dairy category, while low-temperature yogurt has shown more stability in its price index [10][11] Group 5 - The SKU analysis reveals that low-temperature yogurt has the highest number of SKUs, indicating active product innovation, while ambient pure milk has a high number of discontinued SKUs [13][15] - The average price trends for various categories show a mix of stability and decline, with many products experiencing price pressure [15][19] Group 6 - The CR5 market share for ambient pure milk is 88.28%, indicating a high concentration of market power among leading brands, although some brands have seen a decline in market share [22][24] - The adult milk powder category has a CR5 market share of 77.75%, with a notable presence of brands like Yili and Nestlé [45][46] Group 7 - The cheese category has a CR5 market share of 81.01%, with major players like Miaokelan and Yili showing growth in market share [52][54] - The average price and specifications for cheese products have shown a slight recovery in Q1 2025, although they remain lower than in Q1 2024 [53][54]

Core Insights - The dairy industry is experiencing a prolonged adjustment phase, with supply and demand still in the process of balancing, leading to a focus on cost reduction and efficiency among dairy companies [1][3] - Despite some signs of revenue decline slowing down, the industry has not yet fully recovered, with many companies still facing significant pressure [2][3] - The need to stimulate consumer demand for dairy products is critical, with innovation seen as a potential solution [1][4] Industry Performance - In 2024, the dairy industry faced intensified cyclical contradictions, with listed dairy companies reporting generally pressured performance [2] - Some companies, like Yiming Foods, reported a revenue increase of 1.8% in Q1 2025, down from 4.1% for the entire year of 2024, while Tianrun Dairy saw a decline of 2.5% in Q1 2025 compared to a 3.3% increase in 2024 [2] - The overall revenue decline for companies like Yantang Dairy and Western Pastoral continues to widen, with declines of 11.8% and 20.9% respectively [2] Market Dynamics - Promotional activities in the dairy sector have intensified, with significant discounts reported in retail, such as "buy one get one free" offers on fresh milk [2] - Sales volume for low-temperature pure milk showed slight growth in Q4 2024, but sales revenue still experienced a year-on-year decline, indicating a challenging market environment [2] Supply Chain Adjustments - The dairy industry has been undergoing a three-year cyclical adjustment, with milk production showing a decline for the first time since 2018, with a total production of 40.79 million tons in 2024, down 2.8% [3] - The average sales price of raw milk in 2024 was 3.32 yuan/kg, a significant drop of 13.42% year-on-year, attributed to rapid capacity expansion and weak consumer demand [3] Innovation and Consumer Demand - The industry is urged to focus on restoring the balance of raw milk supply and demand, with calls for innovative approaches to stimulate consumption [4] - There is a growing emphasis on developing functional and age-appropriate products, with high-end product growth beginning to show positive trends [4][5] - Current per capita dairy consumption in China is 42.4 kg, significantly below the Asian and global averages, indicating substantial growth potential [4]