中金研究 1H25消费需求低位企稳，在整体消费信心偏弱背景下食饮消费不乏结构性亮点，满足年轻人悦己需求及高质价比产品表现突出。展望下半年，在国家 持续出台相关政策拉动内需、提振消费、鼓励生育的背景下，我们认为食饮板块需求有望边际企稳改善。分板块看大众食品基本面自3月起边际改善， 下半年基本面有望稳中改善，我们预计新消费标的延续相对高成长，辣味零食、健康饮品、气泡黄酒等新消费趋势景气度有望保持，带动板块估值抬 升，看好休闲零食、软饮料等子板块下半年表现。白酒受宏观经济及政策影响出现板块性估值回调，基本面处于筑底阶段，虽下半年白酒基本面或仍 有所承压，但估值已基本反映悲观预期，配置价值渐显。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 大众食品：预计新消费趋势延续，关注高景气赛道龙头。 展望2025年下半年，我们预计大众食品板块需求有望稳中向上，并预计具备新消费属性的子赛 道如休闲零食中魔芋等品类、软饮料中无糖茶、电解质水、椰子水等健康品类有望保持创新活力，通过持续抓取新消费趋势延续较高景气度。子板块方面 我们优先推荐软饮料、休闲零食，建议关注估值处于低位的乳制品、啤酒板块。长期看，行业结构性增长机会仍存，悦 ...

在本周，马上赢情报站将对2025Q1的乳制品市场进行回顾，同比对象为2024Q1、环比对象为2024Q4。 复盘数据均基于马上赢品牌CT。马上赢品牌CT数据覆盖了全国县级以上各等级城市（不含乡、镇、村），并深度覆盖全国核心城市群，业态覆盖包括大 卖场、大超市、小超市、便利店、食杂店。目前，马上赢品牌CT中的品牌超30万个，商品条码量超过1400万个，年订单数超过50亿笔。 01、乳制品大盘各品类概况 乳制品共包含成人奶粉、纯牛奶、纯羊奶、黄油、冷饮冻食、奶酪、奶片、奶油、酸奶和学生奶粉等共计十个三级类目、累计16个四级类目。其中，成人 奶粉包括女士奶粉、全家奶粉、特殊医学配方奶粉和中老年奶粉4个四级类目；常温纯牛奶和低温纯牛奶均归属纯牛奶类目；酸奶则包含常温酸奶和低温 酸奶两个类目。 1. 乳制品各品类洞察 数据来源：马上赢品类洞察看板-MSY150均衡模型 本季度乳制品市场中，常温纯牛奶依然以50%左右的市场份额占据首位，远超其他品类。低温酸奶、常温酸奶和雪糕/冰淇淋以5%-15%的市场份额构成中 腰部阵营，而低温纯牛奶、奶酪、奶片等品类市场份额较低，分布在5%以下。 从市场份额变动上来看，低温酸奶市场份额 ...

Core Insights - Yili's revenue and net profit have declined for the first time in 29 years, with 2024 revenue at 115.39 billion, down 8.24% year-on-year, and net profit at 8.45 billion, down 18.9% [2][3] - Liquid milk, the core revenue driver, saw a significant revenue drop of 10.5 billion, a decrease of 12% [2][3] - The company's chairman, Pan Gang, experienced a slight salary reduction from 21.79 million to 19.74 million amid the performance decline [2] Revenue Performance - Yili's total revenue for 2024 was 115.39 billion, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, with net profit at 8.45 billion, down 18.9% [3][6] - Liquid milk revenue fell to 75 billion, a decline of over 12%, while the cold drink segment also saw a significant drop, with revenue at 8.72 billion, down 18.41% [3][5] - The share of liquid milk in total revenue has decreased from over 75% in previous years to approximately 65% in 2024 [6] Strategic Challenges - Yili has been facing challenges in its core liquid milk business, which has historically driven growth [5][6] - The company has invested approximately 6.3 billion in the infant formula sector, acquiring a stake in Aoyou Dairy, but this segment has also shown declining revenue and profits [7][9] - Aoyou's revenue fell from 8.575 billion in 2021 to 7.382 billion in 2023, with net profit dropping significantly [9][11] Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, Pan Gang expressed confidence in a gradual recovery of the consumer market, anticipating a return to growth in 2025 [14] - Yili is exploring new product lines, including ready-to-drink tea and other food categories, although these currently contribute minimally to overall revenue [13][14] - The company believes there is still growth potential in the dairy market, particularly in lower-tier cities where consumption is expected to rise [14]

封面新闻记者 伏建宇 4月29日，伊利股份发布2024年年报及2025年一季报。剔除商誉减值后净利润115.39亿元，增长12.2%，经营规模与经营质量双领跑；2025年一季度，实现 营业总收入330.18亿元，同比增长1.35%，扣非归母净利46.29亿元，同比增长24.19%。 财报显示：2024年伊利液体乳业务营收达750.03亿元。其中，常温白奶市场份额行业第一、常温酸奶市占率同比提升1.4个百分点、低温酸奶市场份额较上 年提升1.3个百分点，高端低温白奶营收同比增长30%、冷饮业务实现营收87.21亿元。 作为伊利重点培育的第二增长曲线，奶粉及奶制品业务成为公司第二梯队的稳健增长力量。报告期，伊利奶粉及奶制品业务实现营业收入296.75亿元，同 比增长7.53%。 伊利海外市场同步突破。2024年海外冷饮业务营收增长13%，婴幼儿奶粉业务增长68%，印尼生产基地投产后，Joyday冰淇淋出口16国，东南亚市场份额 进入前四。 据了解，伊利股份2025年计划实现营收1190亿元、利润总额126亿元，同比分别增长2.8%和24.4%。战略层面，伊利重磅布局功能性营养与乳深加工领 域：前者聚焦控糖、养胃、 ...