乳业：周期之中辩趋势 摘要 中国乳制品市场短期虽有下滑，但长期刚需属性不变，消费者健康意识 提升和政策支持将驱动需求稳定增长。 原奶价格经历多轮波动，受需求、政策和国际市场影响，对牧场经营和 产业链产生深远影响。当前供需呈现供给过剩与需求疲软并存局面。 国内原奶自给率快速回升，下游乳企对上游奶源把控增强，与牧场形成 稳定战略合作关系，有利于平稳过渡原奶周期。 原奶价格下跌时，大型乳企通过持股上游、增加促销等方式维稳产业链， 中小乳企享受红利但竞争加剧，盈利能力承压。 判断原奶价格走势需关注生鲜牛肉需求供给增速差，存栏量下降趋势明 确，行业整体亏损面接近 90%，或预示 2026 年原奶周期有望反转。 乳制品行业销售额下降主要因价格下降，消费力疲软提升性价比，国家 倡导"喝得起的奶"，影响产品结构。白奶表现优于酸奶，下沉市场韧 性较好。 中国乳制品行业具备长久期、高壁垒特征，去库到位及资产减值损失收 敛后，经营逐步走出底部，原奶周期反转和需求回暖有望带来业绩与估 值双击。 Q&A 乳制品行业复苏的三个阶段是什么？ 乳制品行业复苏的三个阶段分别是：第一阶段，2025 年第二季度企业主动去 库存，尽管需求仍然承压且 ...

Group 1 - The article reviews the dairy market for Q1 2025, comparing it to Q1 2024 and Q4 2024, using data from the "马上赢" brand CT, which covers over 30,000 brands and more than 14 million product barcodes across major cities in China [1][2] - The dairy product categories include adult milk powder, pure milk, yogurt, cheese, and others, totaling ten third-level categories and 16 fourth-level categories [2][3] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the market share of ambient pure milk remains dominant at approximately 51.61%, while low-temperature yogurt and ambient yogurt hold 14.27% and 12.47% respectively [5][6] - Low-temperature yogurt's market share increased by over 1% year-on-year, while ambient pure milk, ambient yogurt, and cheese experienced declines in both market share and sales [5][6] Group 3 - The analysis of key categories shows that ambient pure milk, low-temperature yogurt, and ambient yogurt account for over 91% of the dairy market share [6][7] - The sales performance of ambient pure milk and ambient yogurt has been particularly challenging, with sales down by over 13% year-on-year [7][8] Group 4 - The price index for dairy products indicates ongoing price pressure, with most categories remaining below the baseline of 100, suggesting a decline compared to the previous year [10][11] - The price index for ambient pure milk has been consistently lower than the overall dairy category, while low-temperature yogurt has shown more stability in its price index [10][11] Group 5 - The SKU analysis reveals that low-temperature yogurt has the highest number of SKUs, indicating active product innovation, while ambient pure milk has a high number of discontinued SKUs [13][15] - The average price trends for various categories show a mix of stability and decline, with many products experiencing price pressure [15][19] Group 6 - The CR5 market share for ambient pure milk is 88.28%, indicating a high concentration of market power among leading brands, although some brands have seen a decline in market share [22][24] - The adult milk powder category has a CR5 market share of 77.75%, with a notable presence of brands like Yili and Nestlé [45][46] Group 7 - The cheese category has a CR5 market share of 81.01%, with major players like Miaokelan and Yili showing growth in market share [52][54] - The average price and specifications for cheese products have shown a slight recovery in Q1 2025, although they remain lower than in Q1 2024 [53][54]