Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The dairy industry in China is experiencing a structural adjustment due to declining milk prices and rising production costs, leading to increased losses among dairy farms and a reduction in the number of dairy cows [1][22][27] - The dairy product market is dominated by a few major players, with a notable performance in flavored milk and online sales channels, indicating potential growth areas despite overall consumption decline [2][42][61] - Tianjin is emerging as a significant urban dairy industry cluster, leveraging advanced DHI measurement technology to enhance milk production efficiency [3][67][76] Summary by Sections 1. China's Dairy Industry and Production Adjustments - Inner Mongolia is the largest milk-producing region, accounting for over 19% of national milk production in 2024 [1] - The average price of fresh milk has decreased by 11.75% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, leading to a cost-price inversion for dairy farms [22][25] - The number of dairy cows in China is projected to decrease by over 500,000 heads in 2024 compared to 2023 [27][36] 2. Dairy Product Market Dynamics - The production of dairy products from large-scale enterprises is expected to decline by 1.90% in 2024, with a total output of 29.62 million tons [2][42] - The market share of flavored milk products is increasing, with online sales channels showing significant growth potential [2][61] - The average per capita consumption of dairy products in China is only 40.5 kg/year, significantly lower than the recommended dietary intake and below levels in developed countries [54] 3. Tianjin's Dairy Industry Development - Tianjin's dairy industry has achieved an annual output value exceeding 11.68 billion yuan, with a slight increase in dairy cow inventory in 2024 [3][70] - The DHI measurement technology in Tianjin is leading nationally, with a full coverage of DHI testing for all dairy cows in the region [3][76] - The average milk yield per cow in Tianjin is significantly higher than the national average, showcasing the effectiveness of local dairy management practices [3][70]

Group 1 - The dairy market is segmented into various categories including adult milk powder, pure milk, yogurt, and ice cream, among others, totaling 10 primary categories and 16 subcategories [2][3] - In Q2 2025, the market share of ambient pure milk decreased to approximately 36.97%, while ice cream gained a market share of about 27.03% [7][8] - Low-temperature yogurt showed significant growth, achieving a market share of 15.72%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.73% [5][7] Group 2 - The overall dairy market is experiencing a structural upgrade, driven by rising consumer health awareness and the increasing coverage of low-temperature cold chains [5][8] - The market share of low-temperature pure milk and yogurt is growing faster than that of ambient products, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [5][8] - The price index for dairy products shows a mild recovery, although it remains below the baseline of 100, indicating ongoing pricing pressures [11][12] Group 3 - The top five SKUs in the ambient pure milk category are dominated by major brands like Yili and Mengniu, with a combined market share of 87.57% [30][36] - In the low-temperature yogurt segment, the CR5 market share is 66.99%, with major players including Junlebao and Mengniu [38][46] - The ice cream category has a CR5 market share of 58.74%, with Yili leading at 34.33% [62][68] Group 4 - The SKU count for ice cream is the highest among dairy categories, indicating a vibrant product iteration and market activity [16][24] - The average price of low-temperature pure milk has shown fluctuations, with a notable increase in Q1 2025 followed by a slight decrease in Q2 2025 [59][60] - The non-combination products in the low-temperature pure milk category show diverse consumer preferences, with a range of packaging sizes and price points [60][61]

Group 1 - The article reviews the dairy market for Q1 2025, comparing it to Q1 2024 and Q4 2024, using data from the "马上赢" brand CT, which covers over 30,000 brands and more than 14 million product barcodes across major cities in China [1][2] - The dairy product categories include adult milk powder, pure milk, yogurt, cheese, and others, totaling ten third-level categories and 16 fourth-level categories [2][3] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the market share of ambient pure milk remains dominant at approximately 51.61%, while low-temperature yogurt and ambient yogurt hold 14.27% and 12.47% respectively [5][6] - Low-temperature yogurt's market share increased by over 1% year-on-year, while ambient pure milk, ambient yogurt, and cheese experienced declines in both market share and sales [5][6] Group 3 - The analysis of key categories shows that ambient pure milk, low-temperature yogurt, and ambient yogurt account for over 91% of the dairy market share [6][7] - The sales performance of ambient pure milk and ambient yogurt has been particularly challenging, with sales down by over 13% year-on-year [7][8] Group 4 - The price index for dairy products indicates ongoing price pressure, with most categories remaining below the baseline of 100, suggesting a decline compared to the previous year [10][11] - The price index for ambient pure milk has been consistently lower than the overall dairy category, while low-temperature yogurt has shown more stability in its price index [10][11] Group 5 - The SKU analysis reveals that low-temperature yogurt has the highest number of SKUs, indicating active product innovation, while ambient pure milk has a high number of discontinued SKUs [13][15] - The average price trends for various categories show a mix of stability and decline, with many products experiencing price pressure [15][19] Group 6 - The CR5 market share for ambient pure milk is 88.28%, indicating a high concentration of market power among leading brands, although some brands have seen a decline in market share [22][24] - The adult milk powder category has a CR5 market share of 77.75%, with a notable presence of brands like Yili and Nestlé [45][46] Group 7 - The cheese category has a CR5 market share of 81.01%, with major players like Miaokelan and Yili showing growth in market share [52][54] - The average price and specifications for cheese products have shown a slight recovery in Q1 2025, although they remain lower than in Q1 2024 [53][54]