Core Insights - The global energy landscape is undergoing a fundamental transformation, with a significant reduction in carbon emissions expected alongside a doubling of global GDP from 2023 to 2050 [2][5][58] - Oil and gas will continue to play crucial roles in the energy mix, but their dominance will shift as renewable energy sources gain traction [6][9][32] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil consumption is projected to remain stable in the near term, with daily consumption at 101.8 million barrels, primarily driven by road transportation and petrochemical feedstock [6][10] - By 2050, oil's role as a feedstock is expected to account for approximately 45% of total oil demand in a low-carbon scenario [9] - OPEC+ is anticipated to increase its market share from around 50% to 60% by 2050, as non-OPEC+ countries, particularly the U.S., face production declines [11][16] Natural Gas Outlook - Natural gas is expected to become the largest fossil fuel by 2050, with its share in primary energy reaching 27% under the current trajectory [17][22] - LNG is projected to see significant growth, with global exports expected to increase by over 50% by 2035, driven by demand from Asia [22] - In a low-carbon scenario, natural gas demand will decline sharply, with its share dropping to 15% by 2050 [17][33] Coal Consumption Trends - Coal is expected to peak in the late 2020s and decline thereafter, with a projected consumption drop of over 5% by 2035, primarily due to increased renewable energy adoption in China [23][26] - By 2050, coal's share in primary energy could fall to 15% under the current trajectory and to 5% in a low-carbon scenario [26] Renewable Energy Growth - Renewable energy is set to dominate the energy landscape, with its share expected to reach 28% by 2050 under the current trajectory and 56% in a low-carbon scenario [32][33] - Wind and solar power are projected to meet over 80% of new electricity demand by 2035, with their share of global electricity generation exceeding 50% by 2050 [30][31] Nuclear Energy Development - Nuclear energy is expected to experience a resurgence, with China becoming the largest producer by 2035, contributing approximately 70% of global growth [54][57] - In a low-carbon scenario, global nuclear power generation could more than double by 2050 [57] Emerging Technologies - Low-carbon hydrogen and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) are identified as key solutions for decarbonizing high-emission sectors, although large-scale adoption is not expected until after 2035 [40][41][46] - The demand for low-carbon hydrogen is projected to reach 7.5 million tons by 2050, with significant applications in various industries [42]

中东低碳氢生产商还凭借技术标准与成本优势推动低碳氢发展。标普2024年11月更新的《碳捕集封存制 氢项目全球进展》报告指出，中东正形成低碳氢产业集群，其生产成本甚至低于美国补贴后的水平，产 能目前占全球在建产能的40%。分析师预测认为，随着中东地区成为低碳燃料的主要生产地，美中两国 可能在日韩出口市场展开竞争。 为了促进未来贸易，潜在目标市场欧盟正忙于制定清洁氢规范，并于2023年发布了可再生氢气生产规 则，以建立商业贸易框架。标普旗下普氏能源资讯称，2024年10月卡塔尔碱性电解制氢成本为4.12美 元/千克，显著低于欧洲和日本的8美元/千克。预计2030年中东氢产量达1760万吨，可出口80万吨低碳 氢；2040年产量增至2410万吨，出口240万吨。 标普分析师预计，到2030年底，中东将拥有7.4吉瓦的在线电解槽产能和70万吨/年的碳捕获和甲烷重整 生产。沙特Neom绿氢巨型项目2023年一季度完成84亿美元融资，计划2026年用4吉瓦可再生能源年产24 万吨绿氢，空气产品公司独家承购其绿氨并布局欧洲市场。 行业专家分析，中东氢能项目开发商正凭借近年试运经验和在建产能优势，竞逐亚洲及欧洲低碳氢/氨 招 ...