（原标题：COP30落幕巴西：适应资金增两倍，退出化石能源路线图落空） 21世纪经济报道记者卢陶然、李德尚玉 报道 比原定计划延期一天，巴西贝伦时间11月22日，《联合国气候变化框架公约》第三十次缔约方大会 （COP30）主席安德烈·杜拉戈敲下小木槌，宣告大会闭幕。 不过，COP30也出现了一些突发状况，正式开幕前数日便启动领导人峰会、场馆突发火灾，以及大会主 席因部分国家反对，将"退出化石能源"等两项无法纳入最终决议的路线图转为个人牵头制定。 然而，COP30总体决议中最引起争议之处在于最终文本删除了所有直接提及"化石燃料"的措辞，未能 就能源转型路线图达成一致，这也成为众多参会者心中的一大遗憾。杜拉戈对此表示，将利用未来一年 的主席职权推进这一路线图制定工作，明年4月在哥伦比亚举行首届全球终结化石燃料国际会议。 在《巴黎协定》达成十周年这一时间节点，COP30为期12天的议程里集齐共194个缔约方、2214家观察 员组织、1457家媒体，约5.6万人注册参会。 《全球动员：团结协作应对气候变化挑战》总体协议明确，到2035年每年向发展中国家提供1.3万亿美 元气候资金，确保持续推动至少每年动员3000亿美 ...

Core Insights - The global energy landscape is undergoing a fundamental transformation, with a significant reduction in carbon emissions expected alongside a doubling of global GDP from 2023 to 2050 [2][5][58] - Oil and gas will continue to play crucial roles in the energy mix, but their dominance will shift as renewable energy sources gain traction [6][9][32] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil consumption is projected to remain stable in the near term, with daily consumption at 101.8 million barrels, primarily driven by road transportation and petrochemical feedstock [6][10] - By 2050, oil's role as a feedstock is expected to account for approximately 45% of total oil demand in a low-carbon scenario [9] - OPEC+ is anticipated to increase its market share from around 50% to 60% by 2050, as non-OPEC+ countries, particularly the U.S., face production declines [11][16] Natural Gas Outlook - Natural gas is expected to become the largest fossil fuel by 2050, with its share in primary energy reaching 27% under the current trajectory [17][22] - LNG is projected to see significant growth, with global exports expected to increase by over 50% by 2035, driven by demand from Asia [22] - In a low-carbon scenario, natural gas demand will decline sharply, with its share dropping to 15% by 2050 [17][33] Coal Consumption Trends - Coal is expected to peak in the late 2020s and decline thereafter, with a projected consumption drop of over 5% by 2035, primarily due to increased renewable energy adoption in China [23][26] - By 2050, coal's share in primary energy could fall to 15% under the current trajectory and to 5% in a low-carbon scenario [26] Renewable Energy Growth - Renewable energy is set to dominate the energy landscape, with its share expected to reach 28% by 2050 under the current trajectory and 56% in a low-carbon scenario [32][33] - Wind and solar power are projected to meet over 80% of new electricity demand by 2035, with their share of global electricity generation exceeding 50% by 2050 [30][31] Nuclear Energy Development - Nuclear energy is expected to experience a resurgence, with China becoming the largest producer by 2035, contributing approximately 70% of global growth [54][57] - In a low-carbon scenario, global nuclear power generation could more than double by 2050 [57] Emerging Technologies - Low-carbon hydrogen and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) are identified as key solutions for decarbonizing high-emission sectors, although large-scale adoption is not expected until after 2035 [40][41][46] - The demand for low-carbon hydrogen is projected to reach 7.5 million tons by 2050, with significant applications in various industries [42]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance and trends in the modern energy sector, particularly focusing on the Central State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) and their investment activities in renewable energy projects [3][4][5] - As of August 29, 2025, the Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF has shown a net value increase of 19.80% over the past two years, with a maximum monthly return of 10.03% since its inception [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Index account for 48.28% of the index, indicating a concentrated investment in key players within the energy sector [5] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, China's total investment in new energy projects reached approximately 1.4 trillion yuan, despite a year-on-year decline of 32.2%, with wind and solar power investments showing significant decreases [3] - Wind power projects attracted 365.4 billion yuan, while solar power projects received 195 billion yuan, reflecting a saturation in traditional energy markets but continued interest in offshore wind and other niche areas [3] - Water power sector demonstrated resilience in profitability, with leading companies like Yangtze Power achieving a 14.9% year-on-year increase in net profit despite challenges in water supply [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. energy policy under the government has shifted focus towards traditional energy sources, particularly oil and gas drilling, while significantly reducing support for the clean energy sector, marking an end to the previous era of clean energy growth [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The Trump administration's energy policy aims to terminate the "Green New Deal" and revive traditional energy industries, especially oil and gas production [1]. - A series of executive orders were signed to roll back climate change initiatives, including the cancellation of significant environmental regulations and halting funding for clean energy projects [1][2]. - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill signed in July 2025 eliminated various clean energy incentives, signaling a systemic shift in U.S. energy policy [1]. Group 2: Impact on Clean Energy Sector - The clean energy sector, once thriving, is now struggling due to the abrupt policy changes, with many projects facing delays or cancellations [2]. - Over half of the nearly $30 billion clean technology projects planned for 2025 are at risk of being postponed or scrapped [2]. - Standard & Poor's Global Insights predicts that the "Big and Beautiful" bill could lead to a 20% reduction in clean energy projects in the next decade [2]. Group 3: Historical Context - The current situation mirrors past energy policy shifts, such as the termination of solar initiatives under President Reagan after Carter's promotion of renewable energy [3]. - Historical patterns indicate that U.S. energy policy often lacks continuity, leading to wasted investments across different administrations [3]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Challenges - The supply side faces challenges due to the long construction cycles and slow returns on investment for fossil fuel infrastructure, with drilling activity at a four-year low [4]. - On the demand side, the rapid growth of the artificial intelligence sector is expected to increase electricity consumption significantly, putting additional pressure on the energy supply [5]. Group 5: Broader Implications - The shift in energy policy is likely to hinder the transition to clean energy, with solar and wind industries being the biggest losers [6]. - Predictions indicate that the removal of clean energy subsidies will lead to a rise in electricity prices, with wholesale prices expected to increase by 25% by 2030 and 74% by 2035 [6]. - The reversal of U.S. energy policy undermines global climate governance efforts, potentially jeopardizing international climate agreements [7].

Group 1 - The China Securities National New Central Enterprise Modern Energy Index (932037) has seen a strong increase of 2.11%, with constituent stocks such as China Energy Engineering (601868) rising by 10.20% and China Power Construction (601669) by 10.02% [3] - The Central Enterprise Modern Energy ETF (561790) experienced a peak increase of over 2%, currently up by 1.66%, marking a potential four-day consecutive rise [3] - The ETF has shown a cumulative increase of 4.08% over the past week, ranking in the top third among comparable funds [3] Group 2 - The Yashan Hydropower Project has a total installed capacity of approximately 60-70 million kilowatts, equivalent to three times the capacity of the Three Gorges Project, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan, comparable to six Three Gorges Projects [4] - The project will utilize advanced construction techniques, with a water level drop of 2300-2400 meters, significantly increasing construction difficulty and technical requirements [4] - The increasing electricity load, with some regions experiencing over 10% year-on-year growth, has led to a rise in electricity prices, benefiting peak-shaving power sources [4] Group 3 - As of July 21, the Central Enterprise Modern Energy ETF has seen a net value increase of 6.42% over the past six months, with a maximum single-month return of 10.03% since inception [5] - The ETF has a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [5] - The ETF closely tracks the China Securities National New Central Enterprise Modern Energy Index, which includes 50 listed companies involved in green energy, fossil energy, and energy transmission and distribution [5] Group 4 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities National New Central Enterprise Modern Energy Index account for 49.93% of the index, including companies like Yangtze Power (600900) and China Nuclear Power (601985) [6]

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" Act signed by Trump is seen as a significant shift in U.S. energy policy, favoring fossil fuels over renewable energy, which may have devastating effects on clean energy development and the U.S.'s international climate responsibilities [1][3][12]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The "Big and Beautiful" Act effectively repeals or undermines much of the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act, particularly in terms of clean energy support [1][3]. - The Act prioritizes fossil fuels, reduces regulations, and limits support for renewable energy, marking a systematic shift in energy policy [3][4]. - Solar and wind energy sectors are identified as the biggest losers under the new law, with tax credits for new projects being significantly restricted [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Reactions - Traditional fossil fuel industries have welcomed the Act, viewing it as transformative legislation that addresses their priorities [4][5]. - Critics argue that the Act will lead to higher energy costs and weaken the U.S. automotive industry, while proponents claim it will lower energy prices by increasing domestic production [5][4]. Group 3: Historical Context - The U.S. has a long history of inconsistent energy policies, often influenced by political changes and various interest groups, leading to a lack of coherent long-term strategy [6][9]. - Previous administrations have oscillated between promoting renewable energy and supporting fossil fuels, with significant policy reversals occurring with each change in leadership [8][9]. Group 4: International Implications - The Act is seen as a step back from global climate commitments, potentially damaging the U.S.'s international image and its ability to compete in the clean energy sector [12][10]. - Allies have expressed concerns over U.S. energy policies, particularly regarding trade discrimination and the potential for increased competition for investments [10][11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the federal shift, individual states may continue to support clean energy initiatives based on their specific industry needs, indicating a potential divergence in energy policy at the state level [13].