Core Viewpoint - The Chinese baking market is experiencing a shift from independent bakeries to new retail channels such as supermarkets and convenience stores, indicating a change in consumer demand despite stable market demand [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2024, the number of baking stores in China saw a net growth of nearly zero, with 92,000 new stores and 91,000 closures, highlighting a stagnation in traditional bakery growth [1]. - New retail channels are showcasing strong sales, with examples including Sam's Club's Swiss roll sales exceeding 1 billion yuan, Hema's strawberry box cake generating 200 million yuan in seasonal sales, and Pang Donglai's mooncake sales estimated at 200 million yuan [1]. Group 2: International Comparisons - The trends observed in the Chinese baking market are not unique but are part of a broader global phenomenon influenced by the development of industrial food technology and rapid market expansion [4]. - Mature baking markets in Japan, South Korea, Europe, and North America have established stable supermarket baking models that meet consumer needs while continuously creating popular products [5]. Group 3: Asian Market Insights - Japan and South Korea serve as benchmarks in the Asian baking market, characterized by high-frequency purchases and a preference for soft bread, with a supply chain model centered around short shelf-life products [6]. - The emphasis on freshness is a common principle in Japanese and Korean supermarkets, supported by a mature "factory collaboration + regional distribution" system [7]. Group 4: Consumer Preferences - In Japan, 82.8% of consumers prefer to buy bread from supermarkets, while in South Korea, this figure is 76%, indicating a strong consumer preference for supermarket-bought baked goods [11]. - Health considerations have become essential, with products like "no added sugar toast" and "low GI whole grain bread" dominating sales in Japan and South Korea [12]. Group 5: North American Market Characteristics - The U.S. baking market is characterized by family-oriented consumption, with supermarkets catering to bulk purchases and family needs, leading to a unique model of large packaging and high cost-effectiveness [23]. - Supermarkets in the U.S. account for approximately 70% of total bread sales, with a focus on stable quality and low prices, although they lack the innovative marketing strategies seen in Japanese convenience stores [30]. Group 6: European Market Trends - The European baking market is projected to reach $157.36 billion by 2025, with supermarkets contributing approximately 60%-70% of sales, reflecting a high dependency on supermarket channels [31]. - Different countries in Europe have tailored their baking strategies based on local consumer preferences, with Germany focusing on cost control through self-owned factories and local ingredients [33]. Group 7: Strategic Recommendations for China - Chinese supermarkets and chain brands can learn from international practices by adopting strategies such as fine segmentation, local sourcing, and fresh product delivery to enhance consumer trust and satisfaction [42][43]. - Emphasizing family-oriented products and transparent labeling can help build consumer confidence and cater to local market demands [44][46].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the contrasting dynamics in the baking market, particularly the rapid entry and exit of baking stores in China, with a net increase of only 1000 stores over the past year despite 92,000 new openings and 91,000 closures [2] - The article emphasizes the significant market share held by new retail channels in China, such as Sam's Club and Hema, which have achieved impressive sales figures, including over 1 billion in sales for Swiss rolls and 200 million for a single strawberry cake [3][4] - The focus shifts to the Japanese baking market, where convenience stores and supermarkets dominate, accounting for nearly 70% of the market share, contrasting with China's reliance on specialty baking stores [5][6] Group 2 - In Japan, the proportion of consumers purchasing bread from supermarkets has increased from 78.6% in 2017 to 82.8% in 2024, while the percentage of customers at bakeries has decreased from 57.9% to 49.4% [8] - The article notes that Japanese convenience stores and supermarkets rely on partnerships with major bread factories for production, allowing them to offer high-quality, affordable products [11][12] - The article discusses the trend of health-conscious products in Japan, with convenience stores introducing low-sugar and high-quality bread options that have gained significant consumer traction [14][17] Group 3 - Independent bakeries in Japan are carving out a niche by utilizing domestic flour and creating unique products that cannot be mass-produced, such as high-hydration breads [19][23] - The rising costs of ingredients have led independent bakeries to adjust their pricing strategies, with bread prices projected to increase by 28.4% by 2025 compared to 2020 [21][22] - The article concludes by suggesting that the rapid development of the baking market in China could benefit from the marketing and product development strategies observed in Japan's convenience store and supermarket channels [27]