原标题：九卦 | 面对67万亿存款到期潮，中小银行的留客之道 来源：九卦金融圈 作者：王润石（上海金融发展研究实验室特聘研究员、重庆财经学院副教授、九卦金融圈专栏作家） 2026年，中国银行业将迎来一场规模空前的定期存款集中到期潮，据中金公司测算，到期资金规模预计 在50–75万亿元之间，其中核心部分源自2022–2023年疫情防控期间居民避险情绪催生的中长期定期存 款，1年期及以上长期限存款占比超89%，达67万亿元，较2025年同比增加10万亿元。 与此同时，市场利率持续下行态势未改，三年期定期存款利率普遍跌破1.8%，2026年开年虽有阶段性 回暖，中小银行三年期定存普遍回升至1.95%，但整体仍处于低位，国有大行三年期利率仅1.25%，股 份行在1.55%—1.85%之间，形成清晰的利率分层格局。叠加居民风险偏好持续保守、国有大行吸储能 力边际下降的多重背景，中小商业银行迎来了前所未有的"存款搬家"战略窗口期。 然而，机遇背后暗藏挑战。对于资本实力、品牌影响力均处于劣势的中小银行而言，若盲目跟风通过提 高存款利率揽储，必然会显著抬升负债成本、压缩净息差空间，甚至引发流动性风险，陷入"高成本揽 储—盈利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial struggles faced by individuals in the current economic climate, highlighting the risks of investment and the erosion of purchasing power due to inflation and market volatility [1][12][21]. Group 1: Market Volatility and Investment Risks - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices has led to significant losses for retail investors, who are often left vulnerable in a volatile market [1][5]. - Historical events, such as the 2018 P2P industry collapse and the 2015 stock market crash, illustrate the recurring nature of financial crises that disproportionately affect individual investors [3][5]. - The shift in financial policies, including the end of guaranteed returns on investments, has left many investors exposed to market fluctuations [11][12]. Group 2: Psychological and Behavioral Factors - Many individuals fall into a "trap of identity," becoming complacent with their financial status and making poor investment decisions based on perceived wealth [14][16]. - The desire for social status can lead to overspending and increased financial risk, further diminishing individuals' ability to withstand economic downturns [16][19]. Group 3: Inflation and Erosion of Wealth - The article emphasizes the impact of inflation on purchasing power, noting that stagnant interest rates on savings accounts fail to keep pace with rising living costs [21][22]. - The hidden nature of inflation acts as a "silent thief," gradually reducing the value of money over time, making it difficult for individuals to achieve financial growth [24][36]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Financial Health - The article advocates for a diversified investment approach, suggesting that individuals should maintain a safety net of liquid funds while cautiously exploring other investment opportunities [31][34]. - Emphasis is placed on investing in personal skills and health as core assets that cannot be taken away, highlighting the importance of self-improvement over speculative financial ventures [36][41]. - The concept of "anti-fragility" is introduced, suggesting that building a resilient financial system is crucial for navigating uncertain economic conditions [46].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][30]. Core Insights - The expansion of the deposit-loan gap (存差) reflects the natural mapping of the economic transformation phase, characterized by a decline in credit demand and increased fiscal efforts. This phenomenon has deeply impacted the profitability and balance of the banking sector. The core drivers of high credit growth over the past decade were industrialization and urbanization, but the natural decline in traditional credit demand is an inevitable result of the economy's shift from "investment-driven" to "consumption and innovation-driven" [4][7]. - The banking sector's response to the expanding deposit-loan gap is to enhance intermediary business development. Due to significant differences in resource endowments and customer structures between large and small banks, small banks should focus on wealth management, while large banks should enhance their comprehensive service capabilities to adapt to high-quality economic development [5][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The banking sector is currently experiencing a transition towards high-quality development, with fiscal policy becoming a key support for stabilizing growth and promoting transformation. The new landscape of "weak credit, strong fiscal" has led to a continuous expansion of the deposit-loan gap, which is projected to reach approximately 58 trillion yuan by 2025, up from about 40 trillion yuan in 2019 [4][7]. Impact of Deposit-Loan Gap - The trend of expanding deposit-loan gaps is not merely a signal of liquidity accumulation but has deeply penetrated the operational and systemic balance of the banking industry. This is primarily reflected in two aspects: low bond yields dragging down overall profitability and an imbalanced distribution of deposit-loan gaps between large and small banks, with small banks facing greater pressure [11][12]. Strategies for Addressing the Gap - The core strategy for large banks is to shift their business focus from the bank's balance sheet to the client's balance sheet, providing diversified and comprehensive services. This shift is essential for reducing reliance on credit and addressing the expanding deposit-loan gap. For small banks, the focus should be on wealth management to meet the strong demand for wealth preservation among their primary clientele, which consists of county residents and small enterprises [22][19]. Investment Recommendations - It is anticipated that the decline in net interest margins will significantly converge by 2026, marking the likely end of the current downtrend cycle. The fundamental stabilization of the banking sector is expected to drive a valuation premium for quality stocks. Long-term investment strategies should focus on nationwide banks with strong comprehensive capabilities and small banks with significant wealth management business potential. Recommended stocks include China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, Ningbo Bank, Changsha Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [6][24].