大家好，关注一下俄罗斯跟乌克兰的最新消息。 11月25日晚间，全球市场发生了异动。 石油价格直线跳水。 乌克兰总统泽连斯基则强调，前路仍有"大量工作"要做。 这名美国官员是在美国陆军部长正在阿布扎比与俄方官员就特朗普政府的和平方案举行会谈之际表示上 述看法的。他说："乌克兰人已经同意这份和平协议，现在还有一些小细节需要处理，但他们已经同意 达成和平协议。" 美方这一说法，似乎比乌克兰官员公开表态更往前迈了一步。乌方官员同样在阿布扎比派出了代表团， 并且一直与陆军部长丹·德里斯科尔保持沟通。 乌克兰国家安全事务秘书鲁斯捷姆·乌梅罗夫在社交平台X上发文称，各方代表团就日内瓦讨论的协议核 心条款"达成了共同理解"。 "接下来我们指望欧洲伙伴在后续步骤中给予支持。"乌梅罗夫写道。他还表示，乌方期待安排泽连斯基 访问美国，"完成最后步骤，并与特朗普达成协议"。 泽连斯基当天早些时候也在X上发文称："在日内瓦会谈之后，我们看到了许多可以让通往和平之路变 得现实的前景。目前已经取得了扎实成果，但前方仍有大量工作要做。" 欧美股市短线拉升。 黄金、白银一度跳水，但随后价格回升。 消息面上，一位美国官员对媒体表示，乌克兰代表团 ...

11月14日，美股三大指数大幅低开，大型科技股多数下跌，黄金、白银跳水，比特币跌破10万美元。 不过此后，纳指转涨，标普几乎完全收复盘初失地，道指仍然跌300点跌幅超过0.6%。（编者注：截至收盘，道指跌309.74点，跌幅为0.65%，报47147.48 点；纳指涨30.23点，涨幅为0.13%，报22900.59点；标普500指数跌3.38点，跌幅为0.05%，报6734.11点。） 美股半导体芯片股逆势拉升，成为推动市场情绪回暖的主要因素。截至发稿时，闪迪涨超7%，美光科技涨超6%。全球芯片龙头英伟达股价大幅拉升，由 跌转涨，截至发稿涨0.82%。 | < > | 英伟达 G Q | | --- | --- | | NVDA | | | 188.390 今开 182.860 最高 188.390 最低 180.580 | | | 082% 1530 快手 | 0.29% 总量 7059万股 总值 4.6万亿 | | 52周高212.190 52周低 86.600 市盈 「M 52.86 | 車を | | 盘前 182.900 -3.960 -2.12% | 09:30 美东 ▼ | | 分时 | 五日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in October and announced to end balance - sheet reduction and fully renew Treasury bonds and agency MBS from December, transitioning the liquidity environment from contraction to stability. - Domestic macro: Domestic policy support has been strengthened, and economic resilience has been maintained. The manufacturing industry slowed down in October, but the construction and service industries remained in expansion. Policy - based financial instruments and special bonds are being implemented faster, and investment recovery is accelerating. - Asset views: With the Fed's actions, Sino - US summit results, and policy announcements, market sentiment has improved. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation strategy. Non - ferrous metals perform relatively well, black commodities have rebound opportunities, bonds are in a slightly stronger oscillation pattern, and precious metals have medium - to - long - term allocation value [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The Fed's actions aim to manage risks during the economic data vacuum period, balancing growth and liquidity stability. - Domestic: Policy emphasis on "science and technology self - reliance, anti - involution, and expanding domestic demand" has strengthened the focus on economic construction. The economy continues to stabilize. - Asset Allocation: Adopt a "balanced allocation, structural offensive" strategy, with different asset classes having different performance characteristics and investment opportunities [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active, but there is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap stocks. Expected to oscillate and rise. - Stock index options: Market turnover has slightly declined, and the option market liquidity may be lower than expected. Expected to oscillate. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market remains weak, affected by policy, fundamental, and tariff factors. Expected to oscillate [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/silver: Due to the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Expected to oscillate, affected by US fundamentals, Fed policy, and global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. Expected to oscillate, with attention on the rate of freight decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: The market is weak, and attention should be paid to cost support. Expected to oscillate, affected by special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production. - Iron ore: Market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to demand changes. Expected to oscillate, affected by overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, and other factors. - Other products in this sector, such as coke, coking coal, etc., are also expected to oscillate, each affected by different factors [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to oscillate, with different influencing factors for each metal. For example, copper is affected by trade frictions, and aluminum is affected by inventory changes [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Most products in this sector are in a situation of weak supply - demand and are expected to oscillate. Some products, such as ethylene glycol and styrene, are expected to oscillate and decline, affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and trade [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - The agricultural sector shows a differentiated trend. Some products, such as protein meal, are expected to oscillate and rise, while others, such as natural rubber and sugar, are expected to oscillate and decline, affected by factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policies [9].

消息面上，现货黄金升破4260美元/盎司，连续第四个交易日创下历史新高。世界黄金协会研究负责人 安凯（Juan Carlos Artigas）表示，尽管黄金今年已创下45次历史新高，但期货市场的投机性持仓、净多 头头寸尚未达到历史峰值，表明市场尚未饱和，而且全球央行的购金趋势仍在持续，可能仍有增量资金 入场空间。(格隆汇) Endeavour Silver涨超8%，Silvercorp Metals涨超7%，黄金资源、金田涨超5%，科尔黛伦矿业、哈莫尼 黄金涨超4%，纽曼矿业涨超4%。 ...

Market Overview - The digital currency market experienced significant volatility, with Bitcoin's price fluctuating dramatically, dropping to around $104,000 before rebounding over $2,000 and then falling nearly $4,000 again, settling at approximately $103,500 [1] - Ethereum also saw a sharp decline, dropping over $200 to a price of $2,440, representing a daily decrease of more than 4.5% [2] - Other cryptocurrencies such as Dogecoin, SOL, and SUI also faced declines exceeding 4% [3] Liquidation Statistics - Over the past 24 hours, more than 130,000 investors were liquidated globally, with total liquidation amounts exceeding $460 million [3] - Long positions were particularly affected, with liquidation amounts surpassing $500 million, and the largest single liquidation occurred in Bitcoin, amounting to approximately $8 million [3] Market Influences - The recent downturn in the digital currency market is attributed to several factors, including unclear global inflation prospects, high geopolitical uncertainties causing liquidity panic, an escalation in SEC policy reviews, and profit-taking by investors who previously went long [5] - Following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, precious metals like gold and silver also saw declines, with gold prices dropping approximately $80 from a peak of $3,450 per ounce [5] Economic Commentary - Former President Trump has called for the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, suggesting that a reduction to 1-2% could save the U.S. up to $1 trillion annually [10][11] - Trump criticized Powell's handling of inflation and hinted at possibly reconsidering his previous stance on Powell's job security [10][11]

Group 1: Spot Gold Fundamentals - The announcement of a significant tariff adjustment agreement between China and the U.S. on May 12, 2025, led to a sharp decline in the spot gold market, with prices dropping nearly $80 to a weekly low of $3245.85 per ounce [2] - Following the agreement, COMEX gold futures fell below the $3200 mark, reaching a one-month low of $3180.70 per ounce, indicating a market reaction to reduced trade risks [2] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to the easing of trade tensions, which diminished gold's safe-haven appeal, as investors shifted their risk appetite towards equities and other risk assets [2] Group 2: Physical Gold vs. Financial Market - There is a noticeable divergence between physical gold and financial markets, with brands like Chow Tai Fook showing less price volatility compared to the financial market, reflecting stable consumer purchasing decisions [3] - In Q1 2025, global gold jewelry consumption decreased by 21% to 380 tons, while investment demand surged by 170%, with China's demand for gold bars and coins reaching 124 tons, marking the second-highest quarterly level in history [3] Group 3: Spot Gold Technical Analysis - The spot gold market in Asia continued to decline, breaking the key support level of $3201.00, with current market quotes around $3185.00 per ounce [4] - Technical analysis suggests a high probability of further price declines, with a trading strategy recommending short positions if prices rebound to the resistance level of $3215.40, with stop-loss set at $3245.40 and take-profit at $3170.00 [4] Group 4: Spot Silver Technical Analysis - The spot silver market also followed expectations, breaking below the lower boundary of the consolidation range at $32.510, reaching the target of $32.110, with current quotes around $32.200 per ounce [6] - Technical indicators suggest a continued likelihood of price declines, with a recommendation to short if prices rebound to the resistance level of $32.510, setting stop-loss at $32.950 and take-profit at $31.950 [6]