顺丰控股 (002352. SZ) 物流 聚焦直营强化竞争优势,融合再生拓展成长空间 -顺丰控股首次覆盖深度报告 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | 评级: | 买入(首次) | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师:杜冲 | | 营业收入(百万元) | 258.409 | 284.420 | 312,488 | 339,269 | 370,375 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | -3% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | | 执业证书编号: S0740522040001 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 8.234 | 10.170 | 11,863 | 14.006 | 16.221 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | 33% | 24% | 17% | 18% | 16% | | Email: duchong@zts.com.cn | | ...

格隆汇8月19日丨顺丰控股(002352.SZ)公布，公司2025年7月速运物流业务、供应链及国际业务合计收 入为人民币248.47亿元，同比增长9.95%。其中：速运物流业务收入同比增长14.97%，业务量同比增长 33.69%，保持良好增长态势，主要得益于公司深化落实激活经营策略，加大对前线业务的授权与激 励；同时提升运营保障的投入，强化标准产品及综合物流服务能力，持续渗透生产制造和生活消费各类 物流场景，有效满足客户多元化业务需求。 ...

Core Insights - SF Holding announced that the combined revenue from express logistics, supply chain, and international business for July was RMB 24.847 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.95% [1] - The express logistics business revenue grew by 14.97% year-on-year, with a business volume increase of 33.69% [1] - The international freight market demand has softened due to fluctuations in international trade, and sea freight prices have significantly declined from last year's high levels [1]

Core Insights - SF Holding (002352.SZ) reported a total revenue of RMB 24.847 billion for its express logistics, supply chain, and international business in July 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.95% [1] - The express logistics business generated revenue of RMB 18.657 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.97%, with a total volume of 1.377 billion parcels, up by 33.69% year-on-year [1] Business Performance - The express logistics business maintained a strong growth momentum, attributed to the company's implementation of activation strategies and increased authorization and incentives for frontline operations [1] - The company enhanced its operational support investments, strengthened standard product offerings, and improved comprehensive logistics service capabilities [1] - SF Holding continued to penetrate various logistics scenarios in manufacturing and consumer sectors, effectively meeting diverse customer needs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and business volume for June 2025, indicating strong growth in its logistics and supply chain operations [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The total revenue for June 2025 reached RMB 262.54 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.43% compared to RMB 231.45 billion in June 2024 [1]. - The express logistics business revenue grew by 14.24% year-on-year, with business volume increasing by 31.77% [1]. - The supply chain and international business revenue increased by 10.93% year-on-year, contributing to the overall growth [1]. Group 2: Business Strategy - The growth in express logistics is attributed to the company's implementation of activation strategies, increased authorization and incentives for frontline operations, and high-quality service during peak e-commerce promotional seasons [1][2]. - The company leveraged its global network advantages and diversified business layout to adapt to market changes and explore new demands, which supported the growth of supply chain and international operations [2].

Core Viewpoint - SF Holding (002352.SZ) reported significant growth in its express logistics and supply chain businesses, driven by strategic adjustments and global network advantages [1] Group 1: Express Logistics Business - The express logistics business generated revenue of 19.962 billion yuan in June 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.24% [1] - The business volume reached 1.460 billion tickets, showing a year-on-year growth of 31.77% [1] - The average revenue per ticket was 13.67 yuan, which is a decrease of 13.32% compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Supply Chain and International Business - The supply chain and international business achieved revenue of 6.292 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.93% [1] - Growth in this segment is attributed to the company's global network advantages and diversified business layout [1]

Core Insights - SF Holding reported a revenue of 19.381 billion yuan for its express logistics business in May 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.36% [1] - The total business volume reached 1.477 billion shipments, showing a significant increase of 31.76% year-on-year [1] - The average revenue per shipment was 13.12 yuan, which reflects a decline of 13.97% compared to the previous year [1] - The supply chain and international business generated a revenue of 5.732 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.02% [1] - Overall, the company's total revenue amounted to 25.113 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.34% [1]

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, SF Holding achieved steady revenue growth and improved profitability, driven by high-quality development and cost control measures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, SF Holding reported operating revenue of 69.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.23 billion yuan, up 16.9% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 1.97 billion yuan, increasing by 19.1% [1]. - The express logistics business generated revenue of 51.86 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.2% year-on-year growth, with a total business volume of 3.56 billion parcels, a 19.7% increase year-on-year [1][2]. Group 2: Cost Management and Profitability - The company maintained a gross margin of 13.3%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year, with costs accounting for 86.7% of revenue, down 0.13 percentage points [3]. - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders reached 3.20%, up 0.27 percentage points year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit margin was 2.83%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Returns and Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for 2024 decreased by 27% to 9.9 billion yuan, with the ratio to revenue dropping from 5.2% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024 [4]. - Free cash flow increased by 70% to 22.3 billion yuan, providing a solid foundation for dividends and share buybacks [4]. - The total cash dividend payout ratio for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was 20%, 35%, and 40%, respectively, with a proposed buyback plan for 2025 of no less than 500 million yuan and no more than 1 billion yuan [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for SF Holding from 2025 to 2027 are 319.06 billion yuan, 354.32 billion yuan, and 390.61 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 11%, and 10% respectively [5][6]. - The projected net profit for the same period is 11.796 billion yuan, 13.520 billion yuan, and 15.319 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 15%, and 13% respectively [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][11][12] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady revenue growth and improved profitability, with a resilient performance in its first quarter of 2025 [5][6][9] - The company achieved a revenue of 69.85 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.23 billion yuan, up 16.9% year-on-year [5][6] - The report emphasizes the company's focus on high-quality development, cost reduction, and efficiency improvement, which are expected to continue driving performance [7][9] Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the express logistics business generated revenue of 51.86 billion yuan, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, while the supply chain and international segments saw a 9.9% increase [5][6] - The total business volume reached 3.56 billion parcels, with a year-on-year growth of 19.7% [5][6] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 13.3%, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase, while the net profit margin improved to 3.20% [7][8] Cost Management and Shareholder Returns - The company has successfully implemented cost control measures, resulting in a decrease in the cost-to-revenue ratio to 86.7% [7] - Free cash flow increased by 70% year-on-year to 22.3 billion yuan, providing a solid foundation for dividends and share buybacks [9] - The company plans to repurchase shares with a total amount not less than 500 million yuan and not exceeding 1 billion yuan, with a buyback price capped at 60 yuan per share [9] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 319.06 billion yuan, 354.32 billion yuan, and 390.61 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12%, 11%, and 10% respectively [10][11] - Net profit projections for the same period are 11.796 billion yuan, 13.520 billion yuan, and 15.319 billion yuan, with growth rates of 16%, 15%, and 13% respectively [10][11] - The report highlights the company's commitment to shareholder returns and the potential for value creation through strategic initiatives [9][11]

上天天基金APP搜索【777】领 98 元券包 ，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 4月28日晚间，顺丰控股（002352）披露了2025年首份"成绩单"，一季度公司实现营业收入 698.50亿元，同比增长6.90%；实现总件量35.6亿票，同比增长19.7%；归母净利润实现22.34亿 元，同比增长16.87%，再创上市以来的新高；归母净利润率达到3.2%，同比提升0.3个百分 点。 此外，通过数字化系统优化流程、智能工具精准调度资源，实现管理效率的显著提升。这一系 列举措成效逐步显现，公司主要费用率持续改善，其中管理费用率下降0.6个百分点，研发费用 率下降0.1个百分点，财务费用率基本持平，以精细化运营为业绩增长筑牢坚实基础。 启动新一轮股份回购 4月28日晚间，顺丰控股还披露了新一期的回购方案。据公告，公司计划以自有资金通过二级市 场以集中竞价方式回购部分A股社会公众股份，将用于未来拟推出的A股员工持股计划或股权激 励计划。本次回购的资金总额不低于5亿元且不超过10亿元，回购价格不超过60元/股。 值得一提的是， 知名基金经理张坤管理的易方达蓝筹精选混合型证券投资基金"空降"了顺丰控 股前十大 ...