2026年度策略： 迎接破晓时刻 证券研究报告 | 年度策略 2026 01 01 年 月 日 分析师 杨义韬 分析师 尹乐川 执业证书编号：S0680522080002 执业证书编号：S0680523110002 邮箱：yangyitao@gszq.com 邮箱：yinlechuan@gszq.com 打造极致专业与效率 化工几乎每年都有优异的投资机会 | 年份 | 驱动因素 | 代表公司及区间最高涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2010 | 景气周期：化纤、制冷剂 | 华西股份（125%、涤纶短纤）、华峰化学（99%、氨纶）、东岳集团（456%、制冷剂）、 | | | | 巨化股份（245%，制冷剂） | | 2011 | 景气周期：制冷剂、钛白粉 | 巨化股份（182%，制冷剂）、东岳集团（128%，制冷剂）、安纳达（181%，钛白粉） | | 2012 | 景气周期：草甘膦、TDI | 江山股份（178%，草甘膦）、沧州大化（192%，TDI） | | 2013 | 景气周期：染料 | 闰土股份（218%，染料）、安诺其（136%，染料）、浙江龙盛（139%，染料） | | 20 ...

2026 年化工策略报告：看好全球供给反内卷大周期，看 好全球 AI 需求大周期 20251217 摘要 AI 驱动需求增长：AI 时代推动燃气轮机、冷却液、储能材料等上游产品 需求大幅增长，相关公司如英力股份、巨化股份等有望受益于电力和算 力散热领域的发展。 中国企业价值优势：中国龙头企业凭借技术和成本优势，在周期底部实 现超以往利润水平，ROE 和净利润水平显著高于欧洲企业，有望创造净 自由现金流并演变为高分红公司。 供给端反内卷：国内反内卷政策限制新增产能，推动 PTA、有机硅等行 业景气度上行，行业可能从深亏状态回归盈利，带来投资机会。 行业估值处于底部：基础化工行业整体 PB 估值处于历史底部水平，石 油化工行业几乎处于历史最低水平，为投资者提供较好入场机会。 自由现金流改善：基础化工行业上市公司自由现金流显著改善，预计未 来长周期内净自由现金流将在 2,500 亿以上，固定资产投资预计将显著 下降，提升分红能力。 需求端和供给端优化：企业联合减产优化竞争格局，全球经济韧性及 AI 投资拉动需求，欧洲化工品产能退出提振国内及全球相关产品价格。 供给端反内卷对行业有何影响？ 随着国内提出反内卷政策，未 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully entered the high-end new materials sector in China through a dual approach of internal innovation and external mergers and acquisitions [2] Group 1: Company Developments - The subsidiary, Zhongjin Technology, focuses on advanced materials in the non-ferrous metal sector and is the core entity of the company's new materials segment [2] - Zhongjin Technology specializes in high-performance powder materials, thermal bimetals, and energy storage materials, holding national-level "specialized and innovative" qualifications and multiple invention patents [2] - In 2023, the company acquired Foshan Precision, a leading domestic thermal bimetal enterprise, to quickly enter the high-end composite metal materials market [2] Group 2: Future Plans - In 2024, the company plans to further extend its copper deep processing chain by acquiring a controlling stake in Shandong Zhongjin New Materials Technology Co., Ltd [2] - The company aims to continuously strengthen the collaborative advantages of the new materials industry chain and accelerate the cultivation of new productive forces to create long-term value for shareholders [2]

证券代码：000060 证券简称：中金岭南 深圳市中金岭南有色金属股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 今年以来，中金岭南深入践行 FAITH 经营理念，以"增资源、优结构、 强战新"为主线，内外发力提质增效，强力推进深化改革，深入开展科技 创新，加快优化产业结构，保持了稳中向好、稳中提质的发展态势。前三 季度，中金岭南实现营业总收入 485.05 亿元，同比增长 11.81%；实现归母 净利润 8.41 亿元，同比增长 5.18%。 3、请介绍公司未来发展战略。 公司秉承高效集约、绿色高端、安全智能、以人为本、融合发展的基 本要求，提出"一体两翼"新战略。"一体"即掌握丰富金属资源的行业头 部企业，"两翼"即：大力发展铜铅锌冶炼及精深加工产业，大力发展金、 银、镓、锗、铟、硒、碲、铋、铂、钯、铑等稀有稀散稀贵金属及新材料 精深加工产业，加快形成新质生产力，为国家供应链安全作贡献。公司坚 持"外延发展"与"内涵发展"并举，坚持"聚焦主业+资本运营"双轮驱 动，以项目建设、投资并购、资本运作为抓手，不断完善产业链布局，优 化产品结构，多措并举促进高质量、高效益发展。 编号：2025-08 投资者关系活动 类别 □ ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhongjin Lingnan, has successfully entered the high-end new materials sector in China through a dual strategy of internal innovation and external mergers and acquisitions [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - The company emphasizes its focus on advanced materials in the non-ferrous metal sector through its subsidiary, Zhongjin Technology, which is the core of its new materials segment [1] - Zhongjin Technology specializes in high-performance powder materials, thermal bimetals, and energy storage materials, holding national-level "specialized and innovative" small giant qualifications and multiple invention patents [1] Group 2: Recent Developments - In 2023, the company acquired Foshan Precision, a leading domestic thermal bimetal enterprise, to quickly enter the high-end composite metal materials market [1] - In 2024, the company plans to further extend its copper deep processing chain by acquiring a controlling stake in Shandong Zhongjin New Materials Technology Co., Ltd [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company aims to continuously strengthen the collaborative advantages of the new materials industry chain and accelerate the cultivation of new productive forces to create long-term value for shareholders [1]

Core Viewpoint - Qinghai Province is launching a market-oriented sub-fund application guide for its high-quality development government investment fund, with a total scale of 5 billion yuan and an initial capital of 1.5 billion yuan already in place [1] Investment Focus and Direction - The fund aims to support key industries in Qinghai, focusing on the unique resource endowment of the province, promoting the upgrade of salt lake industries, optimizing industrial layout, and enhancing resource utilization [2] - It will support the energy revolution, develop a clean energy industry chain, and establish a national energy storage development demonstration zone [2] - The fund will also promote zero-carbon industry development, new power system development, technological innovation, and the establishment of national-level tourism and organic agricultural enterprises [2] - At least 70% of the fund's investments will be directed towards sub-funds supporting the "Four Places" construction [2] Types of Sub-Funds - Sub-funds are categorized into major (special) sub-funds, regional sub-funds, and market-oriented sub-funds [3] - Major sub-funds are established according to the directives of the Qinghai Provincial Party Committee and government [3] - Regional sub-funds operate through market mechanisms, focusing on cooperation with local parks and cities to achieve coordinated regional development [3] - Market-oriented sub-funds are initiated by professional fund managers in collaboration with social capital, targeting key supported industries and areas [3]

Group 1: Resource and Mining Operations - The company prioritizes resource strategy, aiming to build a globally competitive non-ferrous metal industry chain, with significant holdings in major lead-zinc-silver mines in Asia [1] - As of the end of 2024, the company holds metal resources of 7.13 million tons of zinc, 3.66 million tons of lead, 143,000 tons of copper, 6,607 tons of silver, 90 tons of gold, 92,400 tons of nickel, 717 tons of gallium, 240 tons of germanium, and 16,500 tons of tungsten [1] Group 2: New Materials Sector - The company has entered the high-end new materials sector through internal innovation and external acquisitions, focusing on advanced materials such as high-performance powder materials and energy storage materials [2] - In 2023, the company acquired a leading domestic enterprise in thermal bimetals, rapidly entering the high-end composite metal materials market [2] Group 3: Future Development Strategy - The company adopts a "one body, two wings" strategy, focusing on mastering rich metal resources and developing deep processing industries for various metals and new materials [3] - The strategy emphasizes both external and internal development, aiming to enhance industrial chain layout and optimize product structure for high-quality growth [3] Group 4: Financial Performance (H1 2025) - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 31.089 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.54%, and a net profit of 559 million yuan, up 3.12% [4] - The company produced 125,400 tons of lead-zinc metal from its mining operations and 447,800 tons of copper-lead-zinc products from its smelting operations during the same period [4]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic investment signing ceremony for Zhongjin Technology, a subsidiary of Zhongjin Lingnan, marks the completion of its first round of capital increase and expansion, facilitating mixed-ownership reform and introducing several strategic partners with significant advantages in resources, technology, and capital [1][3][5]. Group 1: Capital Structure Optimization - Zhongjin Lingnan plans to transfer 16.12% of Zhongjin Technology's shares to Guangsheng Capital by December 2024 to support the company's full industry chain development [2]. - The transaction aims to optimize the capital structure, introduce strategic resources, achieve complementary advantages, and enhance management capabilities [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - The introduction of strategic investors is expected to inject new capital and bring valuable market resources, cutting-edge technology, and advanced management concepts to Zhongjin Technology [3][4]. - Southern Media Group and Guangsheng Capital, both state-owned enterprises in Guangdong, will leverage their unique advantages to support Zhongjin Technology's growth [5]. Group 3: Business Development and Performance - Zhongjin Technology has evolved from producing battery zinc powder to becoming a diversified company with three major sectors, including high-end battery zinc alloys and energy storage materials [8]. - The company has achieved significant growth, with revenue and net profit doubling in recent years, reaching 1.374 billion yuan in revenue and 36.68 million yuan in net profit in the first half of 2025 [8][9]. Group 4: Future Growth and Innovation - The company is focused on innovation-driven development, aiming to replace imports with high-end materials and maintain or exceed international standards in product quality and technology [8]. - Recent acquisitions, including the purchase of a leading domestic bimetal company, are part of Zhongjin Technology's strategy to strengthen its high-end composite metal materials sector [9].

Core Viewpoint - The new materials industry is a strategic and foundational sector that supports modern industrial development and is crucial for optimizing and upgrading industrial structures, enhancing manufacturing capabilities, and fostering emerging industries [5][6][13]. Group 1: Overview of New Materials - New materials refer to materials with superior performance and special functions that are either newly developed or significantly improved from traditional materials [4]. - New materials can be classified based on composition, function, and application, with three main directions: technological innovation, process improvement, and new applications [4][5]. Group 2: Characteristics of the New Materials Industry - The new materials industry is characterized by "three highs and three longs": high difficulty, high investment, high barriers, long life cycle, long application period, and long R&D cycle [6][9]. - Most new materials companies struggle to achieve profitability within three years due to high upfront costs and uncertain market prospects [6][9]. - The industry emphasizes core technology development rather than individual flagship products, making it foundational across various sectors [7][9]. Group 3: Global Competitive Landscape - Countries are placing significant emphasis on new materials, with developed nations striving to secure technological advantages, leading to a shift in the industry focus towards the Asia-Pacific region [10][11]. - China lags in advanced high-end materials, with only 13 materials being internationally leading and 39 being advanced, while 101 materials are significantly behind, particularly in comparison to the U.S. [10][11]. Group 4: Current Status of China's New Materials Industry - The new materials industry in China has grown rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 20%, and the total output value surpassing 6 trillion yuan by 2021 [13][14]. - The market size is projected to reach 7.6 trillion yuan in 2023 and exceed 8 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 13.5% from 2020 to 2025 [14][19]. Group 5: Key Areas of Development - The industry encompasses various categories, including advanced electronic materials, composite materials, and nanomaterials, with 42 key development directions identified [9][15]. - Key materials for future development include advanced steel, new display materials, high-performance alloys, and green energy materials [16]. Group 6: Investment Trends and Opportunities - Investment in the new materials sector is increasing, with significant capital flowing into areas such as clean technology, semiconductors, and biotechnology [36][37]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards consolidation, with companies leveraging capital markets for mergers and acquisitions to enhance market share [30][31]. Group 7: Challenges Facing the Industry - The new materials industry faces challenges such as long project cycles, high capital requirements, and a fragmented market with many small players [22][23]. - There is a significant gap in high-end materials, with foreign companies dominating the market and setting high standards that complicate domestic companies' entry [22][23]. Group 8: Future Development Trends - The industry is expected to accelerate transformation and upgrade, focusing on high-end materials for emerging sectors like aerospace, automotive, and renewable energy [28][29]. - The push for domestic substitution of imported materials is becoming increasingly urgent due to geopolitical shifts and trade tensions [29].