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光伏行业月度跟踪:产业链价格持续承压,抢装高潮后需求转向海外市场-20250626
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-26 11:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant policy developments aimed at promoting green electricity and enhancing the quality of products in the renewable energy sector [2] - It notes a historical high in domestic monthly installations, with a substantial increase in exports following a surge in domestic demand [4] - The report emphasizes the ongoing price decline across the supply chain, leading to production cuts among mid and downstream manufacturers [3] Summary by Sections Industry Chain - Prices are under pressure due to weak terminal demand, with silicon material prices dropping significantly; as of June 18, N-type recycled and granular silicon prices were 34,400 and 33,500 CNY/ton respectively, down 8.3% and 2.9% from late May [15] - The production of silicon materials is expected to increase by 4% in June, reaching approximately 106,000 tons, while silicon wafer production is projected to decrease by 3% to around 57 GW [3][30] - Battery cell prices are experiencing differentiation, with stable prices for 210R orders, while 183N and 210N prices continue to decline [17] - Component prices remain stable, with a projected production decrease of 9% to 53 GW in June [3][30] Demand - Domestic installations reached a record high in May with an addition of 92.92 GW, a year-on-year increase of 388% [4][35] - Exports of battery components in May totaled 28.87 GW, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7% [4][41] Procurement Data Tracking - The procurement data for June shows a significant year-on-year increase in bidding volumes, with N-type standard prices rising by 0.03 CNY/W [5][65] - The total bidding, opening, and awarding volumes for large state-owned enterprises in June were 48.6 GW, 90.7 GW, and 54.4 GW respectively [5][65] Important Industry Events - The report discusses the implications of the "Great American Clean Energy Act," which has seen changes that may benefit storage projects significantly [76][77] - The SNEC 2025 photovoltaic exhibition highlighted a shift in focus from technical disputes to efficiency improvements and application potential [2][76]