上市酒企的首份2025年业绩预告出炉了。 口子窖广告孙婉秋/摄 1月7日晚间，口子窖披露公告，预计2025年全年实现归母净利润6.6亿至8.28亿元，同比减少50%至60%；扣非后归母净利润约6.45亿至8.11亿元，相比上 年同期减少49.65%至59.93%。 口子窖将业绩下滑归咎于大环境影响。其表示，报告期内白酒行业市场分化与渠道变革加剧，叠加需求下行及政策变化影响，核心利润来源高端窖产品销 量大幅下滑，导致营收减少。 同时，为保证公司运营及市场持续投入，口子窖管理费用、销售费用下降幅度均小于营收下降幅度，导致利润总额下降幅度较大。 对于这份腰斩的"成绩单"，市场似乎并不意外。1月8日，口子窖以30.1元的价格低开，收跌0.92%，收盘价30.04元。 回溯来看，今年一季度，口子窖实现营收18.1亿元，同比增长2.42%，对应归母净利润同比增长3.6%至6.1亿元。报告期内，口子窖在安徽省内市场营收 15.86亿元，同比增长6.87%。 该季度，口子窖只有高档产品保持增长，对应收入17.3亿元，同比增长3.53%；中档及低档产品均呈下降趋势，分别同比下跌12.5%、9%，对应2058.2万 元、3889 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kuozi Jiao's mid-year performance report for 2025 shows significant declines in both revenue and net profit, indicating increased pressure in the second half of the year [3][4]. Revenue Performance - The company reported revenue of approximately 2.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 20.07%, with a corresponding net profit of 715 million yuan, down 24.63% from the previous year [3]. - In Q1, Kuozi Jiao achieved revenue of 1.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.42%, while net profit grew by 3.59% to 610 million yuan. However, Q2 saw a drastic decline, with revenue dropping 48.48% to 721 million yuan and net profit plummeting 70.91% to 105 million yuan [3]. Product Sales - The decline in revenue is attributed to reduced sales of high-end products, which generated 2.385 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.8%, accounting for approximately 96% of the total revenue from the liquor business [3][4]. - Mid-range product revenue fell by 10.82% to 32 million yuan, while low-end products saw a slight decline of 2.59% to 68 million yuan [3]. Channel Structure - The wholesale and agency channel remains crucial, contributing about 2.352 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 21.26%, representing around 95% of total liquor revenue. Q2 revenue from this channel dropped 51% to 642 million yuan [4]. - The average revenue per distributor decreased by over 27%, from 2.9967 million yuan to 2.1741 million yuan, indicating weakened profitability for distributors [4]. Market Performance - Revenue from the home market in Anhui province was approximately 2.1 billion yuan, down 19.31% from 2.6 billion yuan, while revenue from outside the province fell 19.24% to 384 million yuan [5]. - In Q2, sales in Anhui province and outside dropped significantly, with declines of 54.01% and 18.57%, respectively [5]. Cash Flow and Future Outlook - Cash flow is under pressure, with Q2 cash receipts of 1.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 24.1%. Contract liabilities stood at 3 billion yuan, down 5.9% [5]. - The company aims to double its sales volume as part of its "100 billion Kuozi" strategy, but current trends suggest significant challenges ahead [5].

Core Viewpoint - Kouzi Jiao, known as the "second brother of Huijiu," faces significant challenges as it reports a substantial decline in performance during its 10th anniversary, with revenue and net profit both experiencing sharp decreases [2][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Kouzi Jiao achieved revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.07%, with Q2 revenue plummeting by 48.48% [4][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 715 million yuan, down 24.63% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 698 million yuan, also reflecting a decline of 24.90% [4][5]. - The company reported a negative cash flow from operating activities of -382 million yuan, a drastic decline of 9854.35% compared to the previous year [9]. Sales and Market Dynamics - All product categories experienced sales declines, with high-end products seeing the largest drop in revenue at 2.385 billion yuan, down 19.8% [5][6]. - The company’s sales in both the domestic (Anhui) and national markets fell, with domestic revenue around 2.1 billion yuan, down 19.31%, and national revenue at 384 million yuan, down 19.24% [6]. Inventory and Cash Flow Issues - Kouzi Jiao's inventory reached a record high of 6.159 billion yuan, accounting for 45.92% of total assets, with a turnover rate of only 0.11 times and an average sales cycle nearing four years [7][9]. - The company’s cash flow issues are compounded by a significant reduction in sales and marketing expenses, with advertising costs dropping by 37.20% to 125 million yuan [9]. Strategic Response - In response to these challenges, Kouzi Jiao is implementing a "three-pronged" strategy focusing on deep channel reform, enhancing internal management efficiency, and optimizing marketing and product strategies [9]. - The company continues to expand its dealer network, adding 34 new dealers in Anhui and 29 outside the province during the first half of the year [6]. Shareholder Actions - The controlling shareholder, Liu Ansheng, has begun to reduce his stake, transferring 650,000 shares, which amounts to over 220 million yuan, indicating potential concerns about the company's future [10].

Core Viewpoint - Liu Ansheng, a major shareholder of Kuozi Jiao, holds 10.58% of the company's shares and is part of a concerted action group that collectively owns 42.01% of the company [2][3] Shareholder Information - Liu Ansheng directly holds 63,473,529 shares, representing 10.58% of Kuozi Jiao's total shares [2] - The top ten shareholders collectively own 277.8 million shares, accounting for 46.37% of the total share capital, with a decrease of 2.2435 million shares since December 31, 2024 [3] - Liu Ansheng is one of the founding members of Kuozi Jiao and was a significant shareholder at the time of the company's IPO in 2015 [3] Financial Performance - Kuozi Jiao reported a net profit of 610 million yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.59% [5] - The company's gross margin decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 76.21%, and inventory turnover days increased by 10.38 days [5] - Operating cash flow showed a deficit of 246 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 136.38% [5] Sales Performance - Sales of mid-range products are performing well, while high-end product sales have not met expectations [7] - The introduction of a ban on alcohol has significantly impacted the sales of mid to high-end liquor, with a noticeable decline in demand for celebratory events compared to the previous year [7] Shareholding Changes - Goldman Sachs has gradually reduced its holdings since 2016, initially investing 355 million yuan and later cashing out approximately 5 billion yuan [4] - Liu Ansheng is expected to execute a third round of share reduction, potentially selling up to 10 million shares, which could exert a selling pressure of around 300 million yuan on Kuozi Jiao [4]

Group 1 - The company reported that mid-range low-priced products are performing well in sales, while high-end products are underperforming expectations [1] - The prices of products 5, 6, and 8 are stable within the company's guidance price system, while products 10 and 20 are priced slightly below the guidance [1]