口子窖广告（孙婉秋 摄） 近期，素有"徽酒老三"之称的口子窖披露2025年中期业绩。报告期内，公司实现营收约25.31亿元，同比下滑20.07%，对应归母净利润为7.15亿元，较 上年同期减少24.63%，毛利率同比下滑2.77个百分点至73.07%。 交出一份营利双跌的 " 成绩单 " 后，口子窖下半年压力陡增。 截至6月末，口子窖来自"大本营"安徽省内的收入约21亿元，较上年同期的26亿元下滑19.31%，省外市场则同比下滑19.24%至3.84亿元。其中第二季 度，公司安徽省内、省外分别实现收入5.15亿元、1.83亿元，同比下滑54.01%、18.57%。 可以看出，第二季度，口子窖在安徽省内的销售更加低迷。而截至5月末，公司在安徽省内的经销商数量为536家，省外经销商数量则实现反超，对应 546家。 动销萎靡之下，口子窖的现金流也开始承压。 按季度拆分来看，今年一季度，口子窖实现营收18.1亿元，同比提升2.42%，归母净利润则同比增长3.59%至6.1亿元。第二季度，公司经营情况急剧 恶化，当季营收同比下滑48.48%至7.21亿元，归母净利润只有1.05亿元，同比跌幅达到70.91%。 财报中， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance showed a significant decline, with total revenue of 7.21 billion yuan, down 48.5% year-on-year, and net profit of 1.05 billion yuan, down 70.9% year-on-year. This decline was greater than expected, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4][5] - Despite the challenges, there is still potential for improvement in the company's organizational capabilities and channel development, justifying the "Accumulate" rating [4] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 25.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.15 billion yuan, down 24.6% year-on-year [4] - The company's revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 9.8 billion yuan (-6.9%), 11.0 billion yuan (-6.4%), and 12.1 billion yuan (-6.0%) respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.64 yuan (-1.14), 1.84 yuan (-1.05), and 2.02 yuan (-0.99) [4] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 21.2, 18.9, and 17.2 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Product and Market Analysis - The revenue decline is attributed to demand pressure and a high base from the previous year due to new product launches. In Q2 2025, revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end products was 6.57 billion yuan (-49.6%), 0.12 billion yuan (-7.7%), and 0.29 billion yuan (+7.5%) respectively [5] - Revenue from domestic and foreign markets in Q2 was 5.15 billion yuan (-54.0%) and 1.83 billion yuan (-18.6%) respectively, with a significant decline in the domestic market due to strict policy enforcement affecting consumption scenarios [5] Cash Flow and Inventory Management - In Q2 2025, the company's cash sales were 10.58 billion yuan, down 24.1% year-on-year, which was better than revenue performance. The company's contract liabilities at the end of Q2 were 2.98 billion yuan, an increase of 0.28 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [6] - The company maintains relatively low channel inventory, and the number of domestic and foreign distributors increased by 25 each in Q2 [6] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin in Q2 2025 decreased by 9.9 percentage points to 65.2%, primarily due to restrictions on mid-range products and a significant decline in product structure [7] - The net profit margin decreased by 11.18 percentage points to 14.51% [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - The company's financial indicators for 2023A to 2027E show a projected revenue decline in 2025E to 4.482 billion yuan (-25.5%), with a recovery expected in subsequent years [8] - The projected net profit for 2025E is 980 million yuan (-40.8%), with a gradual recovery to 1.207 billion yuan by 2027E [8] - The gross margin is expected to decline to 66.1% in 2025E, with a gradual recovery to 70.2% by 2027E [8]

Core Viewpoint - Kouzi Jiao, known as the "second brother of Huijiu," faces significant challenges as it reports a substantial decline in performance during its 10th anniversary, with revenue and net profit both experiencing sharp decreases [2][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Kouzi Jiao achieved revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.07%, with Q2 revenue plummeting by 48.48% [4][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 715 million yuan, down 24.63% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 698 million yuan, also reflecting a decline of 24.90% [4][5]. - The company reported a negative cash flow from operating activities of -382 million yuan, a drastic decline of 9854.35% compared to the previous year [9]. Sales and Market Dynamics - All product categories experienced sales declines, with high-end products seeing the largest drop in revenue at 2.385 billion yuan, down 19.8% [5][6]. - The company’s sales in both the domestic (Anhui) and national markets fell, with domestic revenue around 2.1 billion yuan, down 19.31%, and national revenue at 384 million yuan, down 19.24% [6]. Inventory and Cash Flow Issues - Kouzi Jiao's inventory reached a record high of 6.159 billion yuan, accounting for 45.92% of total assets, with a turnover rate of only 0.11 times and an average sales cycle nearing four years [7][9]. - The company’s cash flow issues are compounded by a significant reduction in sales and marketing expenses, with advertising costs dropping by 37.20% to 125 million yuan [9]. Strategic Response - In response to these challenges, Kouzi Jiao is implementing a "three-pronged" strategy focusing on deep channel reform, enhancing internal management efficiency, and optimizing marketing and product strategies [9]. - The company continues to expand its dealer network, adding 34 new dealers in Anhui and 29 outside the province during the first half of the year [6]. Shareholder Actions - The controlling shareholder, Liu Ansheng, has begun to reduce his stake, transferring 650,000 shares, which amounts to over 220 million yuan, indicating potential concerns about the company's future [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [6][4][19] Core Views - In Q2 2025, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit, reflecting demand pressure, with total revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, down 20.1% year-on-year, and net profit of 715 million yuan, down 24.6% year-on-year [1][4] - The product structure faced pressure, particularly in high-end liquor, which saw a revenue drop of 49.6% year-on-year in Q2 2025, while low-end liquor showed a slight increase of 7.5% [2][4] - The company is actively supporting its distribution channels to alleviate pressure, with a net increase of 25 distributors in both provincial and non-provincial markets by the end of Q2 2025 [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 715 million yuan, down 24.6% year-on-year [1] - Q2 2025 saw total revenue of 721 million yuan, a decline of 48.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 105 million yuan, down 70.9% year-on-year [1][4] Product and Market Analysis - High-end liquor revenue in Q2 2025 was 657 million yuan, down 49.6% year-on-year, while low-end liquor revenue was 29 million yuan, up 7.5% [2] - The provincial market in Anhui saw a revenue decline of 54.0% year-on-year, while non-provincial revenue decreased by 18.6% [2] Cost and Profitability - The overall gross margin in Q2 2025 decreased by 9.86 percentage points year-on-year, with tax and management expense ratios increasing due to fixed costs amid declining revenue [3] - The company reduced promotional activities, leading to a sales expense ratio decrease of 0.59 percentage points year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025, anticipating a gradual recovery in provincial market demand in the second half of the year [4][11] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 4.914 billion yuan, 5.077 billion yuan, and 5.378 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.266 billion yuan, 1.315 billion yuan, and 1.409 billion yuan [4][11]

Core Viewpoint - Liu Ansheng, a major shareholder of Kuozi Jiao, holds 10.58% of the company's shares and is part of a concerted action group that collectively owns 42.01% of the company [2][3] Shareholder Information - Liu Ansheng directly holds 63,473,529 shares, representing 10.58% of Kuozi Jiao's total shares [2] - The top ten shareholders collectively own 277.8 million shares, accounting for 46.37% of the total share capital, with a decrease of 2.2435 million shares since December 31, 2024 [3] - Liu Ansheng is one of the founding members of Kuozi Jiao and was a significant shareholder at the time of the company's IPO in 2015 [3] Financial Performance - Kuozi Jiao reported a net profit of 610 million yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.59% [5] - The company's gross margin decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 76.21%, and inventory turnover days increased by 10.38 days [5] - Operating cash flow showed a deficit of 246 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 136.38% [5] Sales Performance - Sales of mid-range products are performing well, while high-end product sales have not met expectations [7] - The introduction of a ban on alcohol has significantly impacted the sales of mid to high-end liquor, with a noticeable decline in demand for celebratory events compared to the previous year [7] Shareholding Changes - Goldman Sachs has gradually reduced its holdings since 2016, initially investing 355 million yuan and later cashing out approximately 5 billion yuan [4] - Liu Ansheng is expected to execute a third round of share reduction, potentially selling up to 10 million shares, which could exert a selling pressure of around 300 million yuan on Kuozi Jiao [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent share reduction announcement by Liu Ansheng, the second-largest shareholder of Kuozi Jiao, highlights the financial pressures faced by the company amid a challenging market environment, reflecting broader issues within the liquor industry [1][3]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Liu Ansheng plans to reduce his holdings by up to 10 million shares, representing 1.67% of the total share capital, potentially raising around 340 million yuan at the current share price [1]. - Since the expiration of the lock-up period in 2018, Liu has gradually reduced his stake, with cumulative cashing out expected to exceed 1 billion yuan if the current plan is executed [2]. - Currently, 49.7% of Liu's remaining shares are pledged, raising concerns about his financial situation and the stability of the company's equity structure [3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Kuozi Jiao's revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.81 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of only 2.42%, marking the lowest growth rate since 2021 [4]. - For the full year of 2024, the company reported revenue of 6.015 billion yuan, a mere 0.89% increase, and a net profit decline of 3.83%, the first drop since its listing [4]. - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 fell to 47%, the lowest since 2018, raising questions about the company's profit distribution policy [4]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with significant impacts from sales restrictions and a decline in demand for mid-to-high-end liquor [5]. - Kuozi Jiao faces intensified competition, particularly from local brands, which threatens its market position [5]. - The company is struggling with product, channel, and brand challenges, as new product launches have not met market expectations, and its traditional distribution model is becoming less effective [6].

Group 1 - The company reported that mid-range low-priced products are performing well in sales, while high-end products are underperforming expectations [1] - The prices of products 5, 6, and 8 are stable within the company's guidance price system, while products 10 and 20 are priced slightly below the guidance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for 2024 but a decline in net profit, indicating challenges in profitability despite stable revenue growth in certain segments [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 6.015 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.655 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% [1]. - For Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.653 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 7.6% to 345 million yuan [1]. - In Q1 2025, total revenue reached 1.810 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with net profit rising by 3.6% to 610 million yuan [1]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on upgrading its product line, particularly the "Jian" series, with new product launches aimed at enhancing market presence [2]. - In 2024, the white liquor business generated revenue of 5.876 billion yuan, a 0.5% increase, with high-end liquor sales contributing significantly [1][2]. - The proportion of high-end products increased by 1 percentage point to 95.1% in Q1 2025, reflecting a strategic shift towards premium offerings [1]. Regional and Channel Performance - Revenue from the domestic market in Anhui province grew by 1.1% to 4.956 billion yuan in 2024, while revenue from outside the province declined by 2.9% to 0.920 billion yuan [2]. - The company has expanded its dealer network, with an increase of 6 dealers in the province and 62 outside, totaling 502 and 517 dealers respectively by the end of 2024 [2]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 74.59%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, while Q1 2025 saw a slight improvement to 76.21% [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 27.52%, down 1.4 percentage points, but improved to 33.72% in Q1 2025 [3]. Strategic Outlook - The company is undergoing significant reforms in product, channel, and marketing strategies, with expectations for initial results to emerge from these changes [4]. - Despite facing growth pressures due to increased competition and weak demand recovery, the company remains committed to its reform initiatives and market penetration strategies [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates total revenue of 6.131 billion yuan in 2025 and 6.420 billion yuan in 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 1.9% and 4.7% respectively [4]. - Expected net profit for 2025 is projected at 1.701 billion yuan, increasing to 1.807 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 2.8% and 6.2% respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 40 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 6.015 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.8% to 1.655 billion yuan. In Q4 alone, revenue increased by 9.0% year-on-year to 1.65 billion yuan, but net profit fell by 7.5% to 350 million yuan [1][4]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 1.81 billion yuan, up 2.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 610 million yuan, which is a 3.6% increase. However, sales receipts decreased by 14.8% to 1.2 billion yuan, and contract liabilities reduced by 290 million yuan compared to Q4 2024 [1][4]. - The company is focusing on channel reform and resource integration, particularly in the Anhui province, while also expanding its product offerings in the 100-300 yuan price range. The introduction of new products is expected to enhance market performance, although challenges remain due to intensified competition [1][8]. Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 5.556 billion yuan, representing a decline of 7.6% year-on-year. The net profit is projected to be 1.499 billion yuan, down 9.4% from the previous year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.50 yuan [4][8]. - The company’s gross margin for Q4 2024 was 74.1%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin fell to 20.8%, down 3.7 percentage points [1][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow to 14.217 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.0% [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price set at 40 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 6.015 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.8% to 1.655 billion yuan. In Q4 alone, revenue reached 1.65 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 7.5% to 350 million yuan. For Q1 2025, total revenue was 1.81 billion yuan, a 2.4% increase, with net profit rising by 3.6% to 610 million yuan [1][4]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: Total revenue was 6,015 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,655 million yuan, down 3.8% [4]. - **2025 Financial Projections**: Expected total revenue for 2025 is 5,556 million yuan, with a projected decline of 7.6%. The net profit is anticipated to be 1,499 million yuan, a decrease of 9.4% [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS for 2024 is reported at 2.76 yuan, with projections of 2.50 yuan for 2025 and 2.61 yuan for 2026 [4]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected at 13 for 2024, increasing to 14 in 2025, and then decreasing to 12 by 2027 [4]. Market Performance - The company has shown a positive revenue growth in Q4 2024, which has contributed to an overall positive growth for the year, despite challenges in profit margins and sales returns [1][8]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on channel reform and resource integration, particularly in the Anhui province, to enhance market competitiveness. The introduction of new products in the 100-300 yuan price range is expected to strengthen its market position [1][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while short-term financials may face pressure, the ongoing reforms and market adjustments could lead to improved performance in the long run. The target price has been adjusted to 40 yuan, reflecting a cautious but optimistic outlook [1][8].