口子窖（603589）在2024年度暨2025年一季度业绩说明会上表示，目前兼系列中档偏低价位产品动销良 好，高端兼系列动销不及预期。兼5、兼6、兼8产品价格稳定在公司指导价格体系，兼10、兼20价格略 低于指导价格。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for 2024 but a decline in net profit, indicating challenges in profitability despite stable revenue growth in certain segments [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 6.015 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.655 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% [1]. - For Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.653 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 7.6% to 345 million yuan [1]. - In Q1 2025, total revenue reached 1.810 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with net profit rising by 3.6% to 610 million yuan [1]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on upgrading its product line, particularly the "Jian" series, with new product launches aimed at enhancing market presence [2]. - In 2024, the white liquor business generated revenue of 5.876 billion yuan, a 0.5% increase, with high-end liquor sales contributing significantly [1][2]. - The proportion of high-end products increased by 1 percentage point to 95.1% in Q1 2025, reflecting a strategic shift towards premium offerings [1]. Regional and Channel Performance - Revenue from the domestic market in Anhui province grew by 1.1% to 4.956 billion yuan in 2024, while revenue from outside the province declined by 2.9% to 0.920 billion yuan [2]. - The company has expanded its dealer network, with an increase of 6 dealers in the province and 62 outside, totaling 502 and 517 dealers respectively by the end of 2024 [2]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 74.59%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, while Q1 2025 saw a slight improvement to 76.21% [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 27.52%, down 1.4 percentage points, but improved to 33.72% in Q1 2025 [3]. Strategic Outlook - The company is undergoing significant reforms in product, channel, and marketing strategies, with expectations for initial results to emerge from these changes [4]. - Despite facing growth pressures due to increased competition and weak demand recovery, the company remains committed to its reform initiatives and market penetration strategies [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates total revenue of 6.131 billion yuan in 2025 and 6.420 billion yuan in 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 1.9% and 4.7% respectively [4]. - Expected net profit for 2025 is projected at 1.701 billion yuan, increasing to 1.807 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 2.8% and 6.2% respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 40 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 6.015 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.8% to 1.655 billion yuan. In Q4 alone, revenue increased by 9.0% year-on-year to 1.65 billion yuan, but net profit fell by 7.5% to 350 million yuan [1][4]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 1.81 billion yuan, up 2.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 610 million yuan, which is a 3.6% increase. However, sales receipts decreased by 14.8% to 1.2 billion yuan, and contract liabilities reduced by 290 million yuan compared to Q4 2024 [1][4]. - The company is focusing on channel reform and resource integration, particularly in the Anhui province, while also expanding its product offerings in the 100-300 yuan price range. The introduction of new products is expected to enhance market performance, although challenges remain due to intensified competition [1][8]. Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 5.556 billion yuan, representing a decline of 7.6% year-on-year. The net profit is projected to be 1.499 billion yuan, down 9.4% from the previous year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.50 yuan [4][8]. - The company’s gross margin for Q4 2024 was 74.1%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin fell to 20.8%, down 3.7 percentage points [1][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow to 14.217 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.0% [4][8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 谢谢谢谢谢寻寻寻 口子窖（603589）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 全年增速回正，改革仍待显效 目标价：40 元 事项： 公司研究 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 6,015 | 5,556 | 5,728 | 5,935 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.9% | -7.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,655 | 1,499 | 1,568 | 1,679 | | 同比增速(%) | -3.8% | -9.4% | 4.6% | 7.1% | | 每股盈利(元) | 2.76 | 2.50 | 2.61 | 2.80 | | 市盈率(倍) | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | | 市净率(倍) | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 风险提示：新品动销不及预期、渠道改革放缓、徽酒竞争加剧。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要 ...

将渠道库存消化摆在更优先位置的徽酒企业们，在安徽省内市场形成了控速纾压、价格带错位竞争的局面。 其中，报表端的压力已与渠道表现同频——与多家徽酒企业去年下半年相对乏力数字对照的，正是本地经销商三季度和中秋节附近表现不佳的回忆。而价格敏感度抬升也是酒企 和经销商共同的感知，尤其是节日批量采购时，单瓶小额价差被放大，影响着同一价格带的产品选择。 不过，来自部分经销商的"今年春节动销好转，终端库存比上一年少15%以上"消息，以及企业将业绩压力分散到多价格带的策略，已释放产业链健康度回升的信号。 徽酒下半年集体走弱后，本地经销商称今年春节动销好转，库存减少15%以上 近日，包括古井贡酒、迎驾贡酒、口子窖、金种子酒在内的四家安徽白酒企业发布2024年报。整体看，四家企业去年逐季度控速营收步伐，且部分企业在三四季度出现负增长。 利润端，四家企业下半年盈利成长表现也弱于上半年。 今日发布的迎驾贡酒2024年报也显示，其去年营收增长8.46%至73.44亿元，归属净利提高13.45%至25.89 亿元。相较于《2024年度财务预算方案》中提出的全年营收80.64亿元、净 利28.66亿元的目标，仍有一定差距。而早在三季报时， ...