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徽酒探花“失速”!二季度省内收入腰斩,口子窖百亿梦悬了
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-09-02 15:21
口子窖广告(孙婉秋 摄) 近期,素有"徽酒老三"之称的口子窖披露2025年中期业绩。报告期内,公司实现营收约25.31亿元,同比下滑20.07%,对应归母净利润为7.15亿元,较 上年同期减少24.63%,毛利率同比下滑2.77个百分点至73.07%。 交出一份营利双跌的 " 成绩单 " 后,口子窖下半年压力陡增。 截至6月末,口子窖来自"大本营"安徽省内的收入约21亿元,较上年同期的26亿元下滑19.31%,省外市场则同比下滑19.24%至3.84亿元。其中第二季 度,公司安徽省内、省外分别实现收入5.15亿元、1.83亿元,同比下滑54.01%、18.57%。 可以看出,第二季度,口子窖在安徽省内的销售更加低迷。而截至5月末,公司在安徽省内的经销商数量为536家,省外经销商数量则实现反超,对应 546家。 动销萎靡之下,口子窖的现金流也开始承压。 按季度拆分来看,今年一季度,口子窖实现营收18.1亿元,同比提升2.42%,归母净利润则同比增长3.59%至6.1亿元。第二季度,公司经营情况急剧 恶化,当季营收同比下滑48.48%至7.21亿元,归母净利润只有1.05亿元,同比跌幅达到70.91%。 财报中, ...
营收利润暴跌,口子窖高端化战略拖累业绩?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-29 13:28
Core Viewpoint - Kouzi Jiao's performance in the first half of 2025 shows significant declines in revenue and profit, primarily due to the failure of its high-end product strategy [2][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Kouzi Jiao achieved revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.07% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 715 million yuan, down 24.63% year-on-year [2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 698 million yuan, a decline of 24.90% year-on-year [2] - Operating cash flow turned negative at -383 million yuan, with a dramatic year-on-year change of -9854.35% [2] - Accounts receivable increased by 59.71% to 22.77 million yuan, while contract liabilities decreased by 46.74% to 298 million yuan [2] Product Performance - Revenue from high-end liquor was 2.385 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.8% year-on-year, accounting for 96% of total revenue [2] - The "Jian Series" products launched in 2023 have not generated the expected growth, with high-end liquor revenue growth rates of 1.94%, 16.58%, and 0.06% from 2022 to 2024, followed by negative growth in 2025 [4] Market Positioning - Kouzi Jiao's brand recognition is primarily associated with traditional products priced around 110-130 yuan, rather than its high-end offerings [6] - The company faces competition from both local brands like Gujing Gongjiu and national giants such as Moutai and Wuliangye, which have stronger brand power and market support [6] - Marketing expenditures in 2024 reached 1.716 billion yuan, with over 60% allocated to advertising, but digital marketing and content creation investments were insufficient [6] Strategic Challenges - The "Jian Series" lacks clear consumer value propositions and cultural narratives necessary for success in the high-end market [6] - The decline in high-end positioning is attributed to the exhaustion of old business models and a disconnect with new consumer contexts [6] - Short-term strategies should focus on digital channel development and targeted marketing, while long-term strategies must establish a clear brand narrative and product scarcity [6]
口子窖上半年“盈利双降”,高档白酒下滑19.80%,省内市场占比超八成
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 10:12
Core Viewpoint - The performance of Kouzi Jiao's first half-year results reflects the development situation of regional liquor companies during an adjustment period, with significant declines in both revenue and profit [2][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 715 million yuan, down 24.63% year-on-year [2][3]. - The second quarter was particularly detrimental, with revenue dropping to 721 million yuan, a decline of 48.48%, and net profit falling to 105 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 70.91% [6][3]. - The cash flow from operating activities was negative 383 million yuan, a staggering decline of 9854.35% compared to the previous year [4]. Product Performance - High-end liquor sales saw the largest decline, with revenue of 2.385 billion yuan, down 19.80% [9]. - Mid-range and low-end products also experienced declines, with revenues of 323 million yuan and 681 million yuan, down 10.82% and 2.59% respectively [10]. - High-end products accounted for nearly 96% of the company's liquor revenue, indicating a heavy reliance on this segment [11]. Market and Channel Analysis - The company’s wholesale and agency channel revenue was 2.352 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.26%, while direct sales (including group purchases) grew by 44.57% to 133 million yuan, but only contributed 5.34% to total revenue [12]. - The company remains heavily dependent on its home market in Anhui, with provincial revenue accounting for 84.54% of total sales [12][13]. - The company has 1,082 distributors, with a nearly equal number in both provincial and non-provincial markets [14]. Strategic Insights - Experts suggest that Kouzi Jiao needs to accelerate its mid-range product layout and explore new markets beyond traditional channels to adapt to changing consumer trends [6][4]. - The company faces internal challenges such as outdated product strategies, channel profit issues, and an aging distribution system [14].
业绩腰斩,突围艰难,口子窖的十年坎怎么过? | 看财报
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 22:45
Core Viewpoint - Kouzi Jiao, known as the "second brother of Huijiu," faces significant challenges as it reports a substantial decline in performance during its 10th anniversary, with revenue and net profit both experiencing sharp decreases [2][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Kouzi Jiao achieved revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.07%, with Q2 revenue plummeting by 48.48% [4][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 715 million yuan, down 24.63% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 698 million yuan, also reflecting a decline of 24.90% [4][5]. - The company reported a negative cash flow from operating activities of -382 million yuan, a drastic decline of 9854.35% compared to the previous year [9]. Sales and Market Dynamics - All product categories experienced sales declines, with high-end products seeing the largest drop in revenue at 2.385 billion yuan, down 19.8% [5][6]. - The company’s sales in both the domestic (Anhui) and national markets fell, with domestic revenue around 2.1 billion yuan, down 19.31%, and national revenue at 384 million yuan, down 19.24% [6]. Inventory and Cash Flow Issues - Kouzi Jiao's inventory reached a record high of 6.159 billion yuan, accounting for 45.92% of total assets, with a turnover rate of only 0.11 times and an average sales cycle nearing four years [7][9]. - The company’s cash flow issues are compounded by a significant reduction in sales and marketing expenses, with advertising costs dropping by 37.20% to 125 million yuan [9]. Strategic Response - In response to these challenges, Kouzi Jiao is implementing a "three-pronged" strategy focusing on deep channel reform, enhancing internal management efficiency, and optimizing marketing and product strategies [9]. - The company continues to expand its dealer network, adding 34 new dealers in Anhui and 29 outside the province during the first half of the year [6]. Shareholder Actions - The controlling shareholder, Liu Ansheng, has begun to reduce his stake, transferring 650,000 shares, which amounts to over 220 million yuan, indicating potential concerns about the company's future [10].
口子窖(603589):2025Q2收入及利润下滑,需求压力下公司主动放缓经营节奏
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-20 07:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [6][4][19] Core Views - In Q2 2025, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit, reflecting demand pressure, with total revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, down 20.1% year-on-year, and net profit of 715 million yuan, down 24.6% year-on-year [1][4] - The product structure faced pressure, particularly in high-end liquor, which saw a revenue drop of 49.6% year-on-year in Q2 2025, while low-end liquor showed a slight increase of 7.5% [2][4] - The company is actively supporting its distribution channels to alleviate pressure, with a net increase of 25 distributors in both provincial and non-provincial markets by the end of Q2 2025 [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 715 million yuan, down 24.6% year-on-year [1] - Q2 2025 saw total revenue of 721 million yuan, a decline of 48.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 105 million yuan, down 70.9% year-on-year [1][4] Product and Market Analysis - High-end liquor revenue in Q2 2025 was 657 million yuan, down 49.6% year-on-year, while low-end liquor revenue was 29 million yuan, up 7.5% [2] - The provincial market in Anhui saw a revenue decline of 54.0% year-on-year, while non-provincial revenue decreased by 18.6% [2] Cost and Profitability - The overall gross margin in Q2 2025 decreased by 9.86 percentage points year-on-year, with tax and management expense ratios increasing due to fixed costs amid declining revenue [3] - The company reduced promotional activities, leading to a sales expense ratio decrease of 0.59 percentage points year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025, anticipating a gradual recovery in provincial market demand in the second half of the year [4][11] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 4.914 billion yuan, 5.077 billion yuan, and 5.378 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.266 billion yuan, 1.315 billion yuan, and 1.409 billion yuan [4][11]
禁酒令下动销放缓,口子窖实控人兼二股东计划减持1000万股
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-29 10:27
Core Viewpoint - Liu Ansheng, a major shareholder of Kuozi Jiao, holds 10.58% of the company's shares and is part of a concerted action group that collectively owns 42.01% of the company [2][3] Shareholder Information - Liu Ansheng directly holds 63,473,529 shares, representing 10.58% of Kuozi Jiao's total shares [2] - The top ten shareholders collectively own 277.8 million shares, accounting for 46.37% of the total share capital, with a decrease of 2.2435 million shares since December 31, 2024 [3] - Liu Ansheng is one of the founding members of Kuozi Jiao and was a significant shareholder at the time of the company's IPO in 2015 [3] Financial Performance - Kuozi Jiao reported a net profit of 610 million yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.59% [5] - The company's gross margin decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 76.21%, and inventory turnover days increased by 10.38 days [5] - Operating cash flow showed a deficit of 246 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 136.38% [5] Sales Performance - Sales of mid-range products are performing well, while high-end product sales have not met expectations [7] - The introduction of a ban on alcohol has significantly impacted the sales of mid to high-end liquor, with a noticeable decline in demand for celebratory events compared to the previous year [7] Shareholding Changes - Goldman Sachs has gradually reduced its holdings since 2016, initially investing 355 million yuan and later cashing out approximately 5 billion yuan [4] - Liu Ansheng is expected to execute a third round of share reduction, potentially selling up to 10 million shares, which could exert a selling pressure of around 300 million yuan on Kuozi Jiao [4]
口子窖:兼系列中档偏低价位产品动销良好
news flash· 2025-06-30 08:10
Group 1 - The company reported that mid-range low-priced products are performing well in sales, while high-end products are underperforming expectations [1] - The prices of products 5, 6, and 8 are stable within the company's guidance price system, while products 10 and 20 are priced slightly below the guidance [1]
口子窖:2024年报及2025年一季报点评全年增速回正,改革仍待显效-20250429
Huachuang Securities· 2025-04-29 05:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 40 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 6.015 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.8% to 1.655 billion yuan. In Q4 alone, revenue increased by 9.0% year-on-year to 1.65 billion yuan, but net profit fell by 7.5% to 350 million yuan [1][4]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 1.81 billion yuan, up 2.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 610 million yuan, which is a 3.6% increase. However, sales receipts decreased by 14.8% to 1.2 billion yuan, and contract liabilities reduced by 290 million yuan compared to Q4 2024 [1][4]. - The company is focusing on channel reform and resource integration, particularly in the Anhui province, while also expanding its product offerings in the 100-300 yuan price range. The introduction of new products is expected to enhance market performance, although challenges remain due to intensified competition [1][8]. Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 5.556 billion yuan, representing a decline of 7.6% year-on-year. The net profit is projected to be 1.499 billion yuan, down 9.4% from the previous year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.50 yuan [4][8]. - The company’s gross margin for Q4 2024 was 74.1%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin fell to 20.8%, down 3.7 percentage points [1][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow to 14.217 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.0% [4][8].
口子窖(603589):2024年报及2025年一季报点评:全年增速回正,改革仍待显效
Huachuang Securities· 2025-04-29 04:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price set at 40 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 6.015 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.8% to 1.655 billion yuan. In Q4 alone, revenue reached 1.65 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 7.5% to 350 million yuan. For Q1 2025, total revenue was 1.81 billion yuan, a 2.4% increase, with net profit rising by 3.6% to 610 million yuan [1][4]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: Total revenue was 6,015 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,655 million yuan, down 3.8% [4]. - **2025 Financial Projections**: Expected total revenue for 2025 is 5,556 million yuan, with a projected decline of 7.6%. The net profit is anticipated to be 1,499 million yuan, a decrease of 9.4% [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS for 2024 is reported at 2.76 yuan, with projections of 2.50 yuan for 2025 and 2.61 yuan for 2026 [4]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected at 13 for 2024, increasing to 14 in 2025, and then decreasing to 12 by 2027 [4]. Market Performance - The company has shown a positive revenue growth in Q4 2024, which has contributed to an overall positive growth for the year, despite challenges in profit margins and sales returns [1][8]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on channel reform and resource integration, particularly in the Anhui province, to enhance market competitiveness. The introduction of new products in the 100-300 yuan price range is expected to strengthen its market position [1][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while short-term financials may face pressure, the ongoing reforms and market adjustments could lead to improved performance in the long run. The target price has been adjusted to 40 yuan, reflecting a cautious but optimistic outlook [1][8].