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酒鬼酒(000799):2025年中报点评:深度调整,应变克难
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-24 14:16
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, facing significant challenges but is expected to recover as market demand improves [7] - The company reported a substantial decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue down 43.5% year-on-year and net profit down 92.6% [7] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product layout and enhancing multi-channel construction to drive sales growth [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,830 million, with a significant decline expected in 2024 to 1,423 million, and further down to 1,009 million in 2025 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to drop from 547.81 million in 2023 to just 12.49 million in 2024, and further to 6.84 million in 2025 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to decrease from 1.69 in 2023 to 0.04 in 2024, and then to 0.02 in 2025 [1] - The P/E ratio is projected to be extremely high in 2024 at 1,647.36, reflecting the company's current challenges [1] Revenue and Profit Trends - The company experienced a 43.7% decline in liquor revenue in the first half of 2025, with significant drops in both volume and price for its main product lines [7] - The company is implementing a "2+2+2" product strategy to streamline its offerings and improve sales efficiency [7] - The sales net profit margin has decreased to 1.6%, down 10.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating worsening profitability [7]
酒鬼酒(000799):业绩短期承压 新品孵化构筑第二曲线
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 06:35
事件:公司披露 2025 年半年度业绩,25 年H1 公司实现营收5.61 亿元,同比-43.54%;归母净利润0.09 亿元,同比-92.60%;扣非归母净利润0.08 亿元,同比-92.79%。其中,25Q2 营收2.17 亿元,同 比-56.57%;归母净利润-0.23 亿元,同比-147.77%;扣非归母净利润-0.23亿元,同比-148.77%。 产品体系逐渐完善,回款谨慎致业绩短期承压。分产品来看,25H1 内参系列/酒鬼系列/湘泉系列/其他 系列/其他业务分别实现营业收入1.11/2.90/0.32/1.26/0.04 亿元,分别同 比-35.81%/-51.01%/-35.87%/-28.84%/-17.92%。公司构建"2+2+2"战略单品体系,坚持聚焦主营大单品, 稳步推进主营产品的升级和"妙品"的上市推广工作。通过分阶段分批梳理 SKU,酒鬼系列精简 SKU 超 50%。持续优化产品价值链,通过督察监督、费控管理以及针对性强化动销,解决经销商库存问题,多 措并举,实现产品价格稳中有升。 盈利能力短期承压,新产品有望实现企稳回升。25H1 公司毛利率/净利率分别为68.58%/1.60%, ...
酒鬼酒(000799):深度调整 渠道探机
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 06:35
公司深度精简酒鬼产品SKU,大本营市场精细化建设持续。分产品来看,25H1公司内参系列/酒鬼系列/ 湘泉系列分别实现营收1.1 亿元/2.9 亿元/0.3 亿元,同比-35.8%/-51.0%/-35.9%,上半年公司深度梳理 SKU,酒鬼系列SKU 精简超50%,公司持续优化产品价值链、强化动销。分区域来看,25H1 公司华中/ 华北/华东/华南地区分别实现营收3.1 亿元/1.1 亿元/0.8 亿元/0.3 亿元,同 比-42.5%/-39.6%/-45.7%/-41.2%,25H1 公司在湖南及省外重点市场推进"扫雷"行动,通过签约、开瓶反 向激励、买赠奖励等方式加速终端开发。 毛利率同比下滑、费用刚性致使净利率承压。25H1 公司实现毛利率水平68.6%(yoy-4.8pct),其中内 参/酒鬼产品的毛利率分别为88.9%(yoy+0.9pct)/73.2%(yoy-2.6pct)。费用端来看,25H1 公司销售 费用率/管理费用率/财务费用率分别为32.6% ( yoy-2.1pct ) /13.1% ( yoy+5.2pct ) /-1.3% (yoy+4.7pct),公司采取费用聚焦政策,严控费 ...
酒鬼酒(000799):深度调整,渠道探机
CMS· 2025-08-23 12:02
基础数据 | 总股本(百万股) | 325 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股(百万股) | 325 | | 总市值(十亿元) | 20.6 | | 流通市值(十亿元) | 20.6 | | 每股净资产(MRQ) | 11.6 | | ROE(TTM) | -2.6 | | 资产负债率 | 23.3% | | 主要股东 | 中皇有限公司 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 31.0% | 股价表现 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 23 日 酒鬼酒(000799.SZ) 深度调整,渠道探机 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 25 年半年报,25H1 公司实现收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润 5.6 亿元/895 万元/842 万元,同比-43.5%/-92.6%/-92.8%。25Q2 公司继续处于深 度调整状态,环比 25Q1 下滑幅度加大。报告期内公司持续强化动销,我们预 计渠道库存已较高点回落,同时公司精简 SKU 调整产品结构并重耕省内市场, 有望进一步筑牢基本盘。考虑到公司先于行业进行调整,渠道侧与胖东来新品 稳步推进,后续有望突破困局,重回增长轨道。由此,我们预计 25-2 ...
酒鬼酒: 2025年半年度报告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-22 16:36
酒鬼酒股份有限公司 2025 年半年度报告全文 酒鬼酒股份有限公司 酒鬼酒股份有限公司 2025 年半年度报告全文 公司董事会及董事、高级管理人员保证半年度报告内容的真实、准确、 完整,不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏,并承担个别和连带的法 律责任。 公司负责人程军、主管会计工作负责人赵春雷及会计机构负责人(会计主 管人员)赵春雷声明:保证本半年度报告中财务报告的真实、准确、完整。 所有董事均已出席了审议本次半年报的董事会会议。 本公司已在本半年度报告中"公司面临的风险和应对措施"章节阐述公司 可能面对的风险,敬请投资者予以关注。 公司计划不派发现金红利,不送红股,不以公积金转增股本。 酒鬼酒股份有限公司 2025 年半年度报告全 文 酒鬼酒股份有限公司 2025 年半年度报告全文 一、载有法定代表人、主管会计工作负责人、会计机构负责人(会计主管人员)签名 并盖章的会计报表。 二、报告期内公开披露过的所有公司文件的正本及公告的原稿。 酒鬼酒股份有限公司 2025 年半年度报告全文 释义 释义项 指 释义内容 本公司/公司/酒鬼酒公司 指 酒鬼酒股份有限公司 中粮酒业 指 中粮酒业投资有限公司 中皇公司 ...
酒鬼酒(000799) - 000799酒鬼酒投资者关系管理信息20250804
2025-08-04 13:52
Group 1: Company Performance and Challenges - The company's performance in the first half of the year has been under pressure due to a weakened demand in the white liquor market and intensified competition, leading to a pronounced Matthew effect [2] - The company is undergoing a transformation period, focusing on C-end sales to drive growth, which requires time to yield results [2] - The company has implemented a "雷扫行动" (雷扫行动) to enhance market development and improve service and management levels [2] Group 2: Product Strategy - The company has initiated a "二低一小" (two low and one small) product strategy, which includes low-end liquor, low-alcohol liquor, and small liquor products [2][3] - The low-end liquor strategy aims to leverage increased production capacity to support mid-to-low-end product offerings, emphasizing cost-effectiveness [3] - The low-alcohol liquor is designed to appeal to younger consumers, featuring low alcohol content without compromising flavor [3] Group 3: Collaborations and Market Positioning - The collaboration with 胖东来 (Pang Donglai) on the 酒鬼·自由爱 (Jiu Gui: Free Love) product is based on shared values and cultural alignment [3] - The company has established a cooperative plan with 胖东来, with ongoing progress in various aspects of the partnership [3] Group 4: Pricing and Profitability - The company is focusing on stabilizing the pricing strategy for its internal reference series due to a decline in high-end liquor demand, prioritizing price stability over volume growth [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 is expected to be low due to significant marketing expenditures aimed at boosting terminal sales and reducing inventory [3]
“胖”东来背得动“瘦”酒鬼吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-24 09:26
Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Jiugui Liquor and retail giant Pang Donglai has generated significant industry attention, but Jiugui Liquor's underlying performance remains concerning, with a sharp decline in revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 [1][2][6]. Financial Performance - Jiugui Liquor's revenue for 2023 and 2024 is projected to be 2.83 billion yuan and 1.42 billion yuan, representing year-on-year declines of 30.14% and 49.70% respectively [2]. - The net profit for the same years is expected to be 548 million yuan and 12.49 million yuan, showing declines of 47.77% and 97.72% [2]. - For the first half of 2025, revenue is anticipated to be around 560 million yuan, a decrease of approximately 43%, with net profit expected to be between 8 million and 12 million yuan, a staggering drop of 90.08% to 93.39% [2]. Operational Challenges - The company's gross margin has decreased from 79.97% in 2021 to 70.71% in the first quarter of 2025 [3]. - Inventory issues are becoming more pronounced, with inventory reaching 1.75 billion yuan by the end of 2024, accounting for 34.48% of total assets, and inventory turnover days increasing from 873 days in 2023 to 1576 days in the first quarter of 2025 [3]. - The number of distributors decreased by 438 in 2024, and the concentration of sales among the top five customers fell to 26.01%, down from 34.84% in 2023 and 37.33% in 2022 [3]. Market Position - Jiugui Liquor's market share in its home market of Hunan, valued at approximately 28 billion yuan, has fallen below 3%, facing strong competition from national giants like Moutai and Wuliangye [5]. - The company is caught in a cycle of declining performance, distributor loss, inventory buildup, and further performance deterioration [5]. Strategic Collaboration - The partnership with Pang Donglai is seen as a potential lifeline for Jiugui Liquor, with expectations for improved brand visibility and market penetration [6][10]. - However, there are concerns regarding the alignment of target consumer demographics, as Pang Donglai caters to a mass retail market while Jiugui Liquor is positioned as a high-end brand [8][10]. - The collaboration is viewed as an innovative approach, combining strong brand equity from both parties, which could enhance market reach and sales [11][13]. Future Outlook - The collaboration is anticipated to provide short-term confidence in the capital market, but the long-term success will depend on overcoming significant operational challenges and fierce market competition [13].
日均净利不足7万 酒鬼酒如何借联名产品破局
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-07-23 13:15
Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Jiugui Liquor and Pang Donglai to launch the "Jiugui Freedom Love" product is seen as a crucial step to reverse Jiugui Liquor's declining performance, with expectations for improved sales and brand value amidst a challenging market environment [1][2]. Product Launch and Sales Performance - The "Jiugui Freedom Love" product will be available in multiple channels, including 13 Pang Donglai supermarkets and online platforms like Douyin, with initial sales in four stores in Changsha [1]. - The product has reportedly sold out quickly, indicating strong initial demand, with a retail price of 200 yuan per bottle and 1200 yuan per box [4][6]. Financial Performance and Market Position - Jiugui Liquor is projected to experience a 43% decline in revenue and over 90% drop in net profit for the first half of 2025, with daily net profit estimated to be less than 70,000 yuan [8][9]. - The company's market value has decreased by 82.38% since its peak in September 2021, reflecting significant challenges in the capital market [1][2]. Industry Trends and Consumer Behavior - The white liquor industry is undergoing a structural shift towards lower price segments, with increasing demand for mid to low-priced products, which Jiugui Liquor is now targeting with its new product [7][12]. - The collaboration with Pang Donglai is expected to enhance Jiugui Liquor's sales in the Henan market, although challenges remain in expanding beyond this region [12][13]. Inventory and Channel Issues - Jiugui Liquor has faced significant inventory challenges, with stock levels reaching 17.51 billion yuan, leading to increased inventory turnover days from 873 to 1461 days [11]. - The number of distributors has decreased from 1774 in 2023 to 1336 by the end of 2024, indicating a loss of confidence in the brand's distribution network [10][11]. Strategic Adjustments and Future Outlook - Jiugui Liquor aims to refine its product strategy by reducing SKU counts by 50% and focusing on high-potential products, while also planning to enhance its high-end offerings [14][15]. - The company has adjusted its growth targets, shifting from a long-term goal of reaching 10 billion yuan in revenue to focusing on recovery and positive growth in 2024 [13].
酒鬼酒上半年净利跌超九成 正加速滑向行业边缘地带
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-07-21 07:46
Core Viewpoint - The company, JiuGuiJiu, is experiencing a significant decline in performance, with a projected net profit drop of over 90% in the first half of 2025, indicating a critical situation for the brand in the competitive liquor market [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2023, JiuGuiJiu reported a revenue of 2.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.14%, and a net profit of 548 million yuan, down 47.77% [2]. - The situation worsened in 2024, with revenue plummeting to 1.423 billion yuan, a decline of 49.70%, and a net profit of only 12.49 million yuan, reflecting a staggering drop of 97.72% [2]. - As of the end of 2024, the company's inventory reached 1.751 billion yuan, accounting for 34.48% of total assets, significantly exceeding the healthy industry level [2]. Market Position and Strategy - JiuGuiJiu, once a prominent player in the liquor market, is now facing severe challenges due to the deep adjustment period in the industry that began in 2021, which has favored leading brands over smaller enterprises [2][6]. - The company has struggled with brand innovation and consumer engagement, relying on outdated strategies such as "old packaging + high rebates" [2]. - The high-end product line, "NeiCan Series," has seen a drastic revenue drop from 1.157 billion yuan in 2022 to 235 million yuan in 2024, a decline of 79% [3]. Recent Developments - In June 2025, JiuGuiJiu partnered with the retail giant, Pang Donglai, to launch a new product called "JiuGui Freedom Love," which is seen as a potential key move to revitalize the brand [3]. - The collaboration is noteworthy as it marks a significant shift for JiuGuiJiu, which has struggled to maintain its market presence outside its home province of Hunan [3]. Management Changes - The company has undergone frequent management changes, with three chairpersons and multiple general managers since 2016, leading to inconsistent strategic direction [4][5]. - The latest management shift occurred in 2024, with the return of Cheng Jun as general manager, who has defined 2025 as a strategic year for the company [4][5]. Market Valuation - JiuGuiJiu's market capitalization has dramatically decreased from nearly 90 billion yuan in 2021 to approximately 16 billion yuan as of July 2025, reflecting a severe loss of investor confidence [5][6]. - The company's decline in market value illustrates the significant challenges it faces in a competitive landscape, where it once held a strong position [6].
酒鬼酒股东大会定调“二低一小”战略!基金持仓仅7家处历史低位
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-27 07:36
Core Viewpoint - The recent shareholders' meeting of JiuGuiJiu indicates a strategic shift, but declining attendance and changes in institutional holdings suggest that investors are losing patience with the company's short-term performance [1][15]. Financial Performance - JiuGuiJiu's revenue has plummeted from 34.14 billion in 2021 to 14.23 billion in 2024, with a growth rate dropping from 86.97% to -49.70% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders has decreased from 8.94 billion to 0.13 billion, representing a 97.72% decline year-on-year in 2024 [2]. - In Q1 2025, revenue and net profit continued to decline by 30.34% and 56.78% respectively [2]. Product Strategy - The company is shifting its focus to a new product strategy centered around "two lows and one small" (low-end liquor, low-alcohol liquor, and small bottles) to address market demands [1][8]. - The core product series, Neican, saw its revenue contribution drop to 16.55% in 2024, while the JiuGui series contributed 58.66% but is under pricing pressure [3][4]. Market Competition - The low-end market is highly competitive, with established brands like Niulanshan and Hongxing dominating, alongside emerging brands like Jiangxiaobai and Fenjiu [8]. - The revenue contribution of the Xiangquan series, which targets the low-end market, is only 5.34%, indicating a lack of competitive advantage [8]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The company approved a dividend of 6 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, distributing a total of 1.95 billion, despite a net profit of only 0.13 billion [10][11]. - This marks the second consecutive year of excessive dividends, which may strain cash flow, as the net cash flow from operating activities was -3.61 billion in 2024 [11]. Institutional Holdings - Institutional holdings have significantly decreased, with the number of institutional investors dropping from 115 at the end of 2023 to just 10 by Q1 2025, and the total holding percentage falling from 42.76% to 38.38% [13].