本文源自：智通财经网 智通财经获悉，一拖股份(00038)早盘涨超11%，截至发稿，涨11.39%，报8.02港元，成交额7226.29万 港元。 高盛发布研报称，一拖股份是中国最大的农用拖拉机生产商。在中国为实现粮食安全而向农业现代化转 型的背景下，公司处于有利地位，能够捕捉拖拉机大型化和高端化升级所带来的结构性增长机会。长期 来看，出口业务有望成为公司增长的另一大支柱，随着一拖股份不断提升其全球竞争力，出口有望成为 长期增长的新驱动力。该行认为，这些结构性转变将推动一拖股份的利润率和回报状况逐步向全球同业 靠拢，并为该股偏低的估值带来向上重估机会。 ...

高盛发布研报称，一拖股份是中国最大的农用拖拉机生产商。在中国为实现粮食安全而向农业现代化转 型的背景下，公司处于有利地位，能够捕捉拖拉机大型化和高端化升级所带来的结构性增长机会。长期 来看，出口业务有望成为公司增长的另一大支柱，随着一拖股份不断提升其全球竞争力，出口有望成为 长期增长的新驱动力。该行认为，这些结构性转变将推动一拖股份的利润率和回报状况逐步向全球同业 靠拢，并为该股偏低的估值带来向上重估机会。 一拖股份（601038）(00038)早盘涨超11%，截至发稿，涨11.39%，报8.02港元，成交额7226.29万港 元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，一拖股份(00038)早盘涨超11%，截至发稿，涨11.39%，报8.02港元，成交额7226.29 万港元。 高盛发布研报称，一拖股份是中国最大的农用拖拉机生产商。在中国为实现粮食安全而向农业现代化转 型的背景下，公司处于有利地位，能够捕捉拖拉机大型化和高端化升级所带来的结构性增长机会。长期 来看，出口业务有望成为公司增长的另一大支柱，随着一拖股份不断提升其全球竞争力，出口有望成为 长期增长的新驱动力。该行认为，这些结构性转变将推动一拖股份的利润率和回报状况逐步向全球同业 靠拢，并为该股偏低的估值带来向上重估机会。 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Engineering Machinery Sector Industry Overview - The domestic engineering machinery industry in China is experiencing an unexpected recovery in 2025, with significant growth in excavator sales. In February 2025, domestic excavator sales are expected to exceed 10,000 units, a year-on-year increase of approximately 70% compared to February 2024, which had sales of 5,837 units. The overall sales growth for January and February is projected to be between 30% and 40% year-on-year [3][12][15]. Key Company Insights: Liugong - Liugong has set a clear sales target of 120,000 to 130,000 excavators for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% to 30% compared to 100,000 units in 2024. The demand is driven by new rural construction, high-standard farmland projects, and water conservancy projects [4][10]. - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 50 billion RMB by 2027, with a net profit margin of 8%, translating to a net profit of approximately 4 billion RMB. If valued at a 15x PE ratio, the future market capitalization could reach 60 billion RMB, significantly higher than the current market cap of 26 billion RMB [5][10]. - Liugong has made progress in the electric product sector, with positive feedback on electric products in the European market. The high unit price and gross margin of electric products in Europe are expected to enhance profitability through increased export sales [6][10]. - The company’s 350 horsepower agricultural tractor products show potential for rapid growth, with plans for small-scale production in 2025 and large-scale production in the following years. The high unit price and gross margin of these tractors are expected to improve overall profitability [7][10]. - Liugong is implementing cost-reduction measures through intelligent production, centralized procurement, and increased automation of components. An incentive system for excess profit has been introduced to enhance employee motivation and execution [8][10]. - Given the unexpected recovery in the domestic engineering machinery sector, Liugong, as a leading manufacturer with alpha attributes, is expected to see its valuation rise to 15x PE or higher. The projected revenue for 2025 is 34.6 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 6%, resulting in a net profit of approximately 2 to 2.1 billion RMB [9][10]. Market Dynamics - The overseas demand for engineering machinery is expected to decline in 2025 but at a reduced rate, with a potential recovery in 2026. Demand in regions such as Africa, the Middle East, India, and South America is anticipated to grow, while demand in the Russian-speaking regions, Europe, and North America remains weak [3][13]. - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a strong demand for large excavators driven by the metal and coal mining industries, with small excavators currently performing the best in terms of sales [18][19]. - The overall recovery of the engineering machinery industry is supported by strong demand from downstream projects, despite some discrepancies in construction activity and raw material prices [19][20]. Conclusion - The engineering machinery industry in China is on a robust recovery path in 2025, with Liugong positioned to capitalize on this growth through strategic initiatives and market demand. The company's focus on electric products and high-margin machinery is expected to enhance its profitability and market valuation in the coming years [3][10][20].