行业研究丨深度报告丨机械 [Table_Title] 矿山机械系列二：周期景气与全球化共振，"设 备+后市场+资源品"布局打开成长空间 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 矿山机械设备空间广阔、利润可观，是装备制造中的优质赛道。从需求侧来看，资源品价格、 矿石品位、资本密集度影响行业需求总量，在宏观宽松、供给受限及需求扩张背景下，资源品 价格有望维持强势，当前矿山机械行业景气有望加速上行，叠加新能源、无人化渗透率提升有 望贡献增量。从供给侧来看，外资龙头格局集中，出海有望成为我国矿机企业成长机遇。近年 来我国矿山机械出海蓬勃发展，龙头企业全球竞争力日益提升，"设备+后市场+资源品"业务 并进，看好我国矿机企业的成长性。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵智勇 臧雄 曹小敏 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490518070005 SAC：S0490521050001 SFC：BRP550 SFC：BVO790 王硕 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / ...

Core Viewpoint - The mining excavator market is expected to be a key growth area, particularly in overseas and emerging markets, with SANY's earnings forecast revised upwards due to increased sales volume and finance income following its recent Hong Kong IPO [1][3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Large-size mining excavators are identified as a significant growth area for 2026, driven by a replacement-driven upcycle and early-stage recovery in crane demand in China [1]. - SANY aims to increase annual mining excavator sales from RMB2 billion in 2025E to RMB6 billion in 2028E [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Following the Hong Kong IPO, SANY raised approximately HK$15 billion (around RMB13.7 billion), with a forecasted net cash of RMB25 billion by the end of 2025E [3]. - The target price for SANY-A has been revised to RMB27 from RMB24, reflecting an earnings upcycle with a target P/E of 24x [1]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - SANY plans to separate its mining excavator operations to enhance collaboration with its mining truck unit, aiming to expand its overseas mining equipment segment [2]. - More than half of the IPO proceeds will be allocated to global sales network and overseas capacity expansion [3].

Industry Outlook - The latest report by CMB International highlights that large overseas mining excavators and emerging markets will be growth areas in 2026 [1][2] - In the domestic market, growth drivers are expected to come from: (1) an upward cycle driven by the replacement of excavators; (2) early-stage recovery in demand for lifting machinery [1][2] Company Forecast - CMB International has raised the profit forecast for SANY Heavy Industry (06031) for 2025E-27E by 2-5%, primarily due to increased sales assumptions and higher financial income estimates following the recent Hong Kong IPO [1][2] - The valuation benchmark has been rolled over to 2026, maintaining a target price-to-earnings ratio of 24 times, which is 0.5 standard deviations above the historical average of 20 times since 2017, reflecting the profit upcycle [1][2] - The target price for SANY's A-shares has been increased to RMB 27 from RMB 24, with a reiterated "Buy" rating [1][2] - Coverage has been extended to SANY's H-shares, with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 29.5, assuming no discount relative to A-shares [1][2]

Core Insights - The global mining excavation equipment market is experiencing stable growth, driven by the continuous demand for coal, metals, and industrial minerals, with a projected market size of 362 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 49.14% of the global mining equipment market [1][5] - The market is expected to reach 378.9 billion yuan in 2025, representing approximately 44.84% of the global mining equipment market [1][5] Industry Definition and Classification - Mining equipment refers to specialized machinery used for mineral extraction, processing, and exploration, categorized into excavation equipment, transportation equipment, and auxiliary equipment [3][5] - Excavation equipment is the core of mining operations, including various types such as hydraulic excavators, wheel loaders, and drilling machines [3][5] Industry Development Status - The mining excavation equipment market is characterized by a diverse range of equipment types suitable for different mining scenarios, with significant growth driven by global material demand [5] - The market size is projected to grow from 362 billion yuan in 2024 to 378.9 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory [5] Industry Chain - The mining excavation equipment industry chain consists of upstream raw materials (steel, copper, aluminum, etc.), midstream manufacturing, and downstream applications in mining sectors [6] - The industry relies on technological breakthroughs, integrated innovation capabilities, and a prosperous mining market for healthy development [6] Industry Policies - Recent government policies aim to promote the development of mining excavation equipment and encourage the advancement of intelligent construction technologies [10] Competitive Landscape - Major international players like Caterpillar and Komatsu lead the market in revenue and technology, while domestic companies such as XCMG, SANY, and others are gaining ground in the mid-range market [11][12] - Domestic giants are innovating and expanding into high-end markets, showcasing strong R&D and manufacturing capabilities [11][12] Industry Development Trends - Chinese companies are increasingly significant in the global mining excavation equipment market, with a focus on technological innovation and market expansion [15] - Trends include the demand for complete equipment solutions, electric and intelligent mining equipment, and advancements in large-scale and efficient mining technologies [16][17]

Group 1 - UBS has a more optimistic view on the Chinese construction machinery industry compared to market expectations, believing the current upward cycle will last until 2029, rather than the commonly predicted 2028 to 2029 [1] - The growth potential and strong profitability resilience of companies' mining-related businesses have not been fully reflected in stock performance [1] - It is estimated that the global market share of Chinese equipment manufacturers in mining trucks and excavators will exceed 20% by 2030, with mining-related businesses potentially becoming another growth driver for companies [1] Group 2 - UBS maintains a "Neutral" rating on Zoomlion Heavy Industry (01157) and Lonking Holdings (03339), with earnings per share growth forecasts for 2025-2026 raised to 49%, 27% and 21%, 17% respectively [1] - XCMG (000425.SZ) is identified as the industry favorite with a "Buy" rating, due to its high proportion of mining-related business, strong growth, and attractive valuation [1] - Target prices for Zoomlion Heavy Industry and Lonking Holdings have been raised to HKD 7.8 and HKD 3.2, respectively, from HKD 6.4 and HKD 2.2 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS expresses a more optimistic outlook on the Chinese construction machinery industry compared to market expectations, predicting that the current upward cycle will last until 2029, rather than the commonly anticipated peak in 2028 to 2029 [1] Industry Summary - The growth potential and strong profitability resilience of companies in the mining-related business have not been fully reflected in stock performance [1] - It is estimated that the global market share of Chinese equipment manufacturers in mining trucks and excavators will exceed 20% by 2030, with mining-related business potentially becoming another growth driver for companies [1] Company Summary - Zhonglian Heavy Industry and China Longgong are rated "Neutral," with target prices raised to HKD 7.8 and HKD 3.2, respectively [1] - Earnings per share growth forecasts for 2025 to 2026 have been adjusted upwards to 49% and 27% for Zhonglian Heavy Industry, and 21% and 17% for China Longgong [1] - XCMG is listed as the industry favorite with a "Buy" rating, supported by its high proportion of mining-related business, strong growth, and attractive valuation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lingong Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd. has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for a main board listing, marking its second attempt to enter the capital market after withdrawing its A-share listing application in early 2024 [1][5]. Company Overview - Established in 2012, Lingong Heavy Machinery operates in multiple sectors, focusing on mining equipment and aerial work machinery, which are both high-margin business segments. Its mining equipment sales cover regions including China and Southeast Asia, while its aerial work machinery is sold in Europe and North America [3]. - According to a Frost & Sullivan report, Lingong Heavy Machinery ranks third among domestic companies in the global mining transportation equipment and excavator market by revenue in 2024. It holds the first position globally in the non-road wide-body dump truck sector and ranks fifth in the global aerial work equipment market among domestic companies, as well as third in the Asia-Pacific region [3]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the years 2022 to 2024 is projected to be 10.529 billion yuan, 9.897 billion yuan, and 12.028 billion yuan, respectively. Net profits for the same years are expected to be 0.954 billion yuan, 0.974 billion yuan, and 1.000 billion yuan [5]. - In the first half of 2025, despite revenue of 5.531 billion yuan, the net profit reached 0.635 billion yuan, indicating a trend of profit growth without a corresponding increase in revenue [5]. Fundraising and Investment Focus - The company plans to use the funds raised from the IPO primarily for research and development innovation and capacity upgrades, with a focus on enhancing the competitiveness of core products such as autonomous mining equipment and electric aerial work platforms [7].

Core Viewpoint - Lingong Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd. has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to leverage its position as a leading global provider of mining and aerial work equipment through innovation and technology [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Lingong Heavy Machinery is recognized as the first domestic manufacturer to develop electric-controlled mining excavators, known for their high reliability and stability [3]. - The company has achieved cumulative shipments of nearly 600 mining excavators as of June 30, 2025 [3]. - Lingong Heavy Machinery also offers auxiliary mining machinery, such as water trucks, providing comprehensive solutions for efficient and high-quality mining operations [3]. Group 2: Market Position and Innovations - The company has proactively introduced new energy and unmanned mining equipment to align with trends in electrification and automation, characterized by high reliability, high availability, and low operating costs [3]. - As of June 30, 2025, approximately 1,600 units of new energy mining transport equipment have been sold [3]. - According to Frost & Sullivan, Lingong Heavy Machinery ranks first among domestic companies in the global new energy mining transport equipment sector based on projected revenue for 2024 [3]. Group 3: Global Reach - As of November 1, 2025, Lingong Heavy Machinery's sales network has expanded to over 100 countries and regions worldwide, holding significant market positions in Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Americas [3].

Company Overview - Lingong Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd. has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with China International Capital Corporation and Xingzheng International as joint sponsors [1] - The company is a global leader in mining and aerial work equipment, focusing on providing intelligent, efficient, and green solutions through innovation and technology [3] - As of November 1, 2025, Lingong Heavy Machinery's sales network has reached over 100 countries and regions, holding significant positions in major markets across Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Americas [3] Market Position - According to Frost & Sullivan, Lingong Heavy Machinery ranks third among domestic companies in the global mining transportation equipment and excavator market based on 2024 revenue [3] - The company is ranked first in the global non-road wide-body dump truck sector and first in the global new energy mining transportation equipment sector among domestic companies, based on 2024 revenue [3] - In the global aerial work equipment market, Lingong Heavy Machinery ranks fifth among domestic companies, and third in the Asia-Pacific region based on 2024 revenue [3] Product Offerings - The company's mining transportation equipment includes diesel non-road wide-body dump trucks, new energy non-road wide-body dump trucks, mining dump trucks, and articulated trucks, which have become mainstream products in the 50-100 ton range [4] - As of June 30, 2025, Lingong Heavy Machinery has shipped nearly 600 mining excavators and approximately 1,600 new energy mining transportation devices [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for Lingong Heavy Machinery from 2022 to 2024 was RMB 10.529 billion, RMB 9.897 billion, and RMB 12.028 billion, respectively, with revenue of RMB 5.531 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [5] - The company reported net profits of approximately RMB 0.954 billion, RMB 0.974 billion, and RMB 1 billion for the fiscal years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with net profits of RMB 0.635 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [6] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross profit margins for Lingong Heavy Machinery were 17.7%, 18.8%, 20.1%, and 22.4% for the fiscal years 2022, 2023, 2024, and the six months ending June 30, 2025, respectively [9] Industry Overview - The global mining market size has grown from RMB 38.5 trillion in 2020 to RMB 54.8 trillion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.3% from 2020 to 2024 [11] - The global mining equipment market is expected to expand from RMB 736.7 billion in 2024 to RMB 1,025.6 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 5.7% from 2024 to 2030 [11] - In China, the mining equipment market is projected to reach RMB 123 billion by 2024, growing at a CAGR of 6.3% and expected to reach RMB 177.1 billion by 2030 [12]

Company Overview - Lingong Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd. has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with China International Capital Corporation and Xingsheng International as joint sponsors [1] - The company is a global leader in mining and aerial work equipment, focusing on providing intelligent, efficient, and green solutions through innovation and technology [3] - Lingong Heavy Machinery is the first domestic manufacturer to develop electric-controlled mining excavators, known for their high reliability and stability [3] Market Position - As of November 1, 2025, Lingong Heavy Machinery's sales network has reached over 100 countries and regions, holding significant positions in major markets across Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Americas [3] - According to Frost & Sullivan, the company ranks third among domestic enterprises in the global mining transportation equipment and excavator market based on 2024 revenue [3] - The company ranks first in the global non-road wide-body dump truck sector and first in the global new energy mining transportation equipment sector among domestic companies, based on 2024 revenue [3] Product Offerings - The company's mining transportation equipment includes diesel non-road wide-body dump trucks, new energy non-road wide-body dump trucks, mining dump trucks, and articulated trucks, which have become mainstream products in the 50-100 ton range [4] - As of June 30, 2025, Lingong Heavy Machinery has shipped nearly 600 mining excavators and approximately 1,600 new energy mining transportation devices [4] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the years 2022 to 2024 was RMB 10.529 billion, RMB 9.897 billion, and RMB 12.028 billion, respectively, with revenue of RMB 5.531 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [5] - Lingong Heavy Machinery reported net profits of approximately RMB 0.954 billion, RMB 0.974 billion, and RMB 1 billion for the years 2022 to 2024, with net profits of RMB 0.635 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [6] Profitability - The overall gross profit margins for Lingong Heavy Machinery were 17.7%, 18.8%, 20.1%, and 22.4% for the years 2022 to 2025, respectively [9] Industry Overview - The global mining market is projected to grow from RMB 38.5 trillion in 2020 to RMB 54.8 trillion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.3% [11] - The global mining equipment market is expected to expand significantly, reaching RMB 736.7 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 5.9% from 2020 to 2024 [11] - The Chinese mining equipment market is projected to reach RMB 123 billion by 2024, growing at a CAGR of 6.3% [12] Equipment Demand - Excavation equipment, including mining excavators and drills, is expected to maintain its leading market position, driven by continuous demand for coal, metals, and industrial minerals [15] - The transportation equipment market is anticipated to grow significantly, with a projected increase from RMB 1.729 trillion in 2020 to RMB 3.451 trillion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 7.3% from 2024 to 2030 [15]