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远大医药(0512.HK):创新壁垒产品放量 核药管线价值或重塑
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-22 19:04
机构:华泰证券 研究员:代雯/沈卢庆/孙茗馨 核药:Y90 微球快速放量,核药差异化管线或重塑价值 1H25 核药板块收入4.22 亿港币(+105.5% yoy),驱动于Y90 国内快速上量(1H25 估测收入翻番)。 我们看好该板块收入于25-27 年快速爬坡: 36.1%);2)24 年并购标的高效整合。展望2H25,考虑2H 较低基数+制药科技/核药板块产品持续放 量,我们预计公司25 年内经营性利润稳健。考虑公司核药/STC3141 管线进展+潜在BD-in 完善制药布 局,维持"买入"。 制药科技:1H25 收入维稳,看好新品整合顺利+存量产品价值挖掘 1H25 制药科技板块实现收入38.4 亿港币(+2.9%yoy),其中人民币口径呼吸及危重症板块收入+9.9%yoy (双恩放量+布地奈德鼻喷等产品顺利整合放量),五官科收入+22.6%yoy,急救板块收入-21.8%yoy。 我们预计25 年该板块收入有望企稳:1)呼吸:切诺或凭借独家优势稳定增长。2) 心脑血管:利舒安集采影 响进入2H25 有望逐步出清,看好板块并购/自研的新品快速增长。 3) 五官科:独家产品或稳定增长+脉血康并表整合。而 ...
远大医药(00512):创新壁垒产品放量,核药管线价值或重塑
HTSC· 2025-08-21 05:55
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 12.00 [1][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 6.1 billion in 1H25, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase, and a 25% decrease in net profit to HKD 1.17 billion [1]. - The revenue from innovative and barrier products increased to 51% in 1H25, up from 36.1% in 1H24, indicating a positive trend in product performance [1]. - The nuclear medicine segment showed significant growth, with revenue reaching HKD 422 million, a 105.5% year-over-year increase, driven by the rapid uptake of Y90 microspheres [3]. - The company expects stable operational profit in 2H25 due to a low base effect and continued growth in the pharmaceutical technology and nuclear medicine sectors [1][2]. Summary by Sections Pharmaceutical Technology - The pharmaceutical technology segment achieved revenue of HKD 3.84 billion in 1H25, a 2.9% year-over-year increase, with respiratory and critical care products growing by 9.9% [2]. - The company anticipates stabilization in revenue for 2025, driven by unique product advantages and the gradual clearing of procurement impacts [2]. Nuclear Medicine - The nuclear medicine segment's revenue surged to HKD 422 million in 1H25, primarily due to the rapid market penetration of Y90 microspheres [3]. - The company has a robust pipeline with 27 nuclear medicine projects, focusing on integrated tumor diagnosis and treatment [3]. R&D Pipeline - The STC3141 project is expected to progress to Phase III trials within the year, with promising data from Phase II trials [4]. - The company is also looking to enhance its product portfolio through potential business development opportunities [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of HKD 2.1 billion, HKD 2.4 billion, and HKD 2.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. - The target price of HKD 12.00 is based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025, aligning with comparable companies in the Hong Kong market [5].
远大医药:传统业务远航稳舵,核药布局大业新程-20250520
HTSC· 2025-05-20 07:45
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 10.15, based on a 17x PE for 2025 [1][8][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a significant player in China's nuclear medicine industry, with a diversified portfolio across pharmaceutical technology, biotechnology, nuclear medicine, and cardiovascular precision intervention [1][5]. - The traditional business segments are expected to maintain steady growth, providing a solid foundation for future development [1][5]. - The nuclear medicine segment is anticipated to experience rapid revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, driven by the commercialization of Y90 microspheres and a robust pipeline of differentiated products focused on integrated tumor diagnosis and treatment [2][20]. Summary by Sections Nuclear Medicine - The company has a unique position in the nuclear medicine market with commercialized products and a differentiated pipeline. Revenue from this segment is expected to grow rapidly from 2025 to 2027, with Y90 microspheres projected to peak at over HKD 3 billion in sales [2][20]. - The low penetration rate of Y90 microspheres presents significant growth potential, supported by hospital access, new indications, and potential insurance coverage [2][21]. Pharmaceutical Technology - The pharmaceutical technology segment is projected to achieve a CAGR of approximately 7% from 2025 to 2027, driven by strong demand for exclusive products in respiratory and cardiovascular categories [3][21]. - The segment is expected to remain stable despite short-term fluctuations due to centralized procurement, with new acquisitions and self-research initiatives supporting growth [3][21]. Biotechnology - The biotechnology segment is expected to maintain steady revenue growth, benefiting from a leading market share in taurine and cysteine, with a nearly 50% global market share in taurine as of 2023 [4][21]. - The segment's performance is supported by stable market demand and the company's strong position in the amino acid market [4][21]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of HKD 2.12 billion, HKD 2.33 billion, and HKD 2.68 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -14%, +10%, and +15% [6][7]. - Revenue is expected to reach HKD 12.65 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 8.63% year-on-year [7][6].