机构：华泰证券 研究员：代雯/沈卢庆/孙茗馨 核药：Y90 微球快速放量，核药差异化管线或重塑价值 1H25 核药板块收入4.22 亿港币（+105.5% yoy），驱动于Y90 国内快速上量（1H25 估测收入翻番）。 我们看好该板块收入于25-27 年快速爬坡： 36.1%）；2）24 年并购标的高效整合。展望2H25，考虑2H 较低基数+制药科技/核药板块产品持续放 量，我们预计公司25 年内经营性利润稳健。考虑公司核药/STC3141 管线进展+潜在BD-in 完善制药布 局，维持"买入"。 制药科技：1H25 收入维稳，看好新品整合顺利+存量产品价值挖掘 1H25 制药科技板块实现收入38.4 亿港币(+2.9%yoy)，其中人民币口径呼吸及危重症板块收入+9.9%yoy （双恩放量+布地奈德鼻喷等产品顺利整合放量），五官科收入+22.6%yoy，急救板块收入-21.8%yoy。 我们预计25 年该板块收入有望企稳：1)呼吸:切诺或凭借独家优势稳定增长。2) 心脑血管:利舒安集采影 响进入2H25 有望逐步出清，看好板块并购/自研的新品快速增长。 3) 五官科：独家产品或稳定增长+脉血康并表整合。而 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 12.00 [1][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 6.1 billion in 1H25, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase, and a 25% decrease in net profit to HKD 1.17 billion [1]. - The revenue from innovative and barrier products increased to 51% in 1H25, up from 36.1% in 1H24, indicating a positive trend in product performance [1]. - The nuclear medicine segment showed significant growth, with revenue reaching HKD 422 million, a 105.5% year-over-year increase, driven by the rapid uptake of Y90 microspheres [3]. - The company expects stable operational profit in 2H25 due to a low base effect and continued growth in the pharmaceutical technology and nuclear medicine sectors [1][2]. Summary by Sections Pharmaceutical Technology - The pharmaceutical technology segment achieved revenue of HKD 3.84 billion in 1H25, a 2.9% year-over-year increase, with respiratory and critical care products growing by 9.9% [2]. - The company anticipates stabilization in revenue for 2025, driven by unique product advantages and the gradual clearing of procurement impacts [2]. Nuclear Medicine - The nuclear medicine segment's revenue surged to HKD 422 million in 1H25, primarily due to the rapid market penetration of Y90 microspheres [3]. - The company has a robust pipeline with 27 nuclear medicine projects, focusing on integrated tumor diagnosis and treatment [3]. R&D Pipeline - The STC3141 project is expected to progress to Phase III trials within the year, with promising data from Phase II trials [4]. - The company is also looking to enhance its product portfolio through potential business development opportunities [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of HKD 2.1 billion, HKD 2.4 billion, and HKD 2.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. - The target price of HKD 12.00 is based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025, aligning with comparable companies in the Hong Kong market [5].

Summary of YD Pharma Conference Call Company Overview - YD Pharma's total assets reached HKD 24.9 billion in 2024, with revenue of HKD 11.64 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 2.47 billion, marking a 17.7% year-on-year growth in the pharmaceutical segment [2][5] - The company operates in three main areas: nuclear medicine for oncology, cardiovascular intervention technology, and formulation technology [2][6] Financial Performance - In 2024, YD Pharma's revenue grew by 12.8% year-on-year in RMB terms, with a net profit increase of 34% [4] - The company declared a dividend of HKD 910 million, with a net profit of HKD 1.76 billion excluding fair value changes [5] - The nuclear medicine and cardiovascular intervention segments saw a revenue increase of 148.3% [2][6] Business Segments Nuclear Medicine - The nuclear medicine segment has established a global integrated production and research layout, with significant revenue from the Hepatocyte Injection reaching nearly HKD 500 million [2][7] - The Chengdu production base was completed, enhancing production capabilities for all research pipeline products [7][30] Cardiovascular Intervention - The company focuses on both acute rescue and chronic disease management, with products like Coenzyme Q10 and a second-generation aldosterone receptor antagonist contributing to growth [12] Respiratory and Critical Care - The core product, Ceno, continues to lead the oral market, with plans for various inhalation formulations [9] - A new nasal spray for allergic rhinitis, Raltex, is set to launch in 2025 [9] Research and Development - YD Pharma has 15 innovative products in the registration phase, covering five collaborative projects and seven cancer types [8] - Three products are in Phase III clinical trials, with one international multi-center trial already submitted for approval [8] Sepsis Treatment - Sepsis is a major focus, with YD Pharma's product SC3,141 targeting the overactive immune response associated with the condition [10][11] - The company plans to advance research in this area, addressing a significant public health issue [10] Market Potential - The FDA approved a new indication for the 190 microsphere product for primary liver cancer, expected to significantly boost global sales, particularly in China [16][19] - The domestic sales peak for this product is projected to reach at least RMB 5 billion due to the high incidence of liver cancer in China [19][34] Future Outlook - YD Pharma anticipates a challenging year in 2025 due to the impact of the tenth batch of centralized procurement, but aims for positive revenue growth [39] - The company expects to achieve higher growth rates in 2026, potentially reaching double-digit growth [39] Additional Insights - The Chengdu production base is designed to meet high safety standards and will support the nuclear medicine segment's growth [30] - YD Pharma is exploring partnerships for global sales of its nuclear medicine products, aiming to compete with larger pharmaceutical companies [36][37]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience significant growth in its nuclear medicine sector, with the STC3141 sepsis product projected to become a major global drug. The report emphasizes the potential of new products in various therapeutic areas, including respiratory, critical care, and ophthalmology [3][9]. - The company has a diversified product portfolio and a robust pipeline, with a focus on innovative therapies and strategic acquisitions to enhance its market position [9][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company operates in three main segments: nuclear medicine, pharmaceutical technology, and biotechnology, with a strong emphasis on innovation and market expansion through acquisitions [9][18]. 2. Nuclear Medicine Sector - The nuclear medicine segment is rapidly growing, with a focus on the core product Yttrium-90 (Y[90]) and a pipeline of 12 innovative products targeting various cancers. The company has established partnerships with leading international firms to enhance its research and development capabilities [9][35][37]. 3. Pharmaceutical Technology - The pharmaceutical technology segment is expected to see growth from new products in the respiratory and critical care fields, as well as in ophthalmology. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the market opportunities presented by these new therapies [3][9]. 4. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth from 116.45 billion HKD in 2024 to 146.63 billion HKD by 2027, with net profit expected to rise from 24.68 billion HKD to 27.64 billion HKD in the same period. The projected P/E ratios indicate that the company is undervalued compared to its peers [1][10][24]. 5. Market Potential - The global nuclear medicine market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a rise from 10.7 billion USD in 2023 to 22.8 billion USD by 2030. The Chinese market for radiopharmaceuticals is also expected to expand rapidly, driven by increasing demand and regulatory support [36][38].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 10.15, based on a 17x PE for 2025 [1][8][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a significant player in China's nuclear medicine industry, with a diversified portfolio across pharmaceutical technology, biotechnology, nuclear medicine, and cardiovascular precision intervention [1][5]. - The traditional business segments are expected to maintain steady growth, providing a solid foundation for future development [1][5]. - The nuclear medicine segment is anticipated to experience rapid revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, driven by the commercialization of Y90 microspheres and a robust pipeline of differentiated products focused on integrated tumor diagnosis and treatment [2][20]. Summary by Sections Nuclear Medicine - The company has a unique position in the nuclear medicine market with commercialized products and a differentiated pipeline. Revenue from this segment is expected to grow rapidly from 2025 to 2027, with Y90 microspheres projected to peak at over HKD 3 billion in sales [2][20]. - The low penetration rate of Y90 microspheres presents significant growth potential, supported by hospital access, new indications, and potential insurance coverage [2][21]. Pharmaceutical Technology - The pharmaceutical technology segment is projected to achieve a CAGR of approximately 7% from 2025 to 2027, driven by strong demand for exclusive products in respiratory and cardiovascular categories [3][21]. - The segment is expected to remain stable despite short-term fluctuations due to centralized procurement, with new acquisitions and self-research initiatives supporting growth [3][21]. Biotechnology - The biotechnology segment is expected to maintain steady revenue growth, benefiting from a leading market share in taurine and cysteine, with a nearly 50% global market share in taurine as of 2023 [4][21]. - The segment's performance is supported by stable market demand and the company's strong position in the amino acid market [4][21]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of HKD 2.12 billion, HKD 2.33 billion, and HKD 2.68 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -14%, +10%, and +15% [6][7]. - Revenue is expected to reach HKD 12.65 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 8.63% year-on-year [7][6].