价值修复并未结束 原油周报 2025/09/20 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 05 原油需求 02 宏观&地缘 06 原油库存 03 油品价差 07 气象灾害 04 原油供应 08 另类数据 01 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估&策略推荐 周度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/11 2025/6/18 2025/6/25 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dekang Agriculture (02419) has seen a significant stock price increase, with a recent rise of over 6%, currently trading at 88.65 HKD, with a transaction volume of 1.01 billion HKD [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, Dekang Agriculture reported a revenue of 11.695 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.3% [1] - The company's profit before fair value adjustments of biological assets reached 1.273 billion RMB, showing a substantial increase of 250.6% year-on-year [1] - The swine segment generated revenue of 9.879 billion RMB, which is a 32.6% increase compared to the previous year, with a sales volume of 5.1174 million pigs, up by 27.1% year-on-year [1] Market Analysis - CICC's research report indicates that Dekang's growth narrative has improved since the release of its 2024 annual report, with enhanced liquidity contributing to value recovery [1] - The estimated market value per head for the company is 2,623 RMB, suggesting there is still room for valuation improvement compared to industry leaders [1] - CICC maintains a target price of 111 HKD for Dekang Agriculture, reiterating an "outperform" rating based on the company's sustained growth fundamentals and improved trading liquidity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance this year, with sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals leading the way [1][9]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment framework prioritizes competitive barriers, followed by growth potential and valuation, which remains consistent across various market conditions [3]. - Competitive barriers are deemed essential for a company's long-term value and its ability to maintain market share against new entrants [3]. - Growth potential is influenced by the industry in which a company operates, with some industries offering more opportunities for scale and new growth avenues [3]. - Valuation is approached flexibly, with the understanding that market conditions can alter perceptions of what constitutes a fair price [3]. Group 2: Portfolio Management - The investment strategy has evolved from a "bottom-up" stock selection approach to incorporating macro and meso factors, reflecting a sensitivity to policy and capital flow impacts [4]. - The portfolio has been adjusted to a "high dividend + quality growth" strategy, which has helped mitigate losses during market downturns [5]. - The current holdings reflect a balanced approach, including both trendy and traditional sectors, showcasing a unique stock selection style [6]. Group 3: Market Insights - The Hong Kong market is characterized by institutional dominance and is less prone to bubbles, as large shareholders can quickly finance through placements if prices rise excessively [8]. - The market is currently in a phase of value recovery, with key sectors like internet and innovative pharmaceuticals still undervalued [8]. - The influence of southbound capital is significant in the dividend stock sector, while growth stocks remain a battleground for domestic and foreign investors [8]. Group 4: Company Performance - The fund managed by the company has achieved a nearly 45% return over the past year, ranking highly among peers [2][9]. - Notable holdings include companies like Pop Mart, Inspur Digital, and NetEase Cloud Music, indicating a focus on high-quality growth stocks [2][6].