周二的行情，继续牛！ 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ （来源：木鱼ETF） 蛰伏已久的券商系、金融科技等ETF终于爆发了，加上市场连续两天成交破2.5万亿，"人气牛"有味道了！ 那么，这对行情有何影响、又会走多远？木鱼边复盘边分享，观点仅供参考！ "人气牛"回归，是给我们设定的"三股风"加码。我们分析指出，人民币资产为首的三股风向是市场做多的主要动力。对于非银金融看好，但主要是看保 险。而另外半壁的券商爆发是补上另外半边，"人气牛"有感觉了！ 谁在做多券商股？我们需要用更新的视角观察。 | 指数 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交额(亿) | 成交变化(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中证500 | 2.13 | 5717 | 13.27 | | 上证50 | 1.9 | 1800 | 6.18 | | 中证1000 | 1.43 | 5808 | 7.12 | | 沪深300 | 1.55 | 7254 | 15.04 | | 中证A500 | 1.68 | 10827 | 13.63 | | 国证2000 | 1.35 | 8557 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector in A-shares has shown significant strength this year, with multiple stocks reaching new highs, driven by external policy benefits and internal asset-liability resonance [3][5][10]. Group 1: Performance Overview - As of December 25, the A-share insurance sector index closed at 1554.89 points, the highest since April 2021 [5]. - The insurance sector has outperformed other financial sectors, with a year-to-date increase of 30.54%, significantly higher than the banking sector's 11.74% and the overall non-bank financial sector's 13.74% [5][8]. - From September of last year to now, the insurance sector has seen a cumulative increase of 58.7% [5]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Notable stocks such as China Pacific Insurance and Ping An have reached new price highs, with China Pacific touching 43 CNY per share and Ping An reaching 71.98 CNY per share [7][8]. - Year-to-date, New China Life and Ping An have recorded price increases of 50% and 40%, respectively, leading the sector [8]. Group 3: Policy and Market Drivers - The rise in insurance stock prices is attributed to a combination of policy support and asset-liability resonance [10][11]. - Regulatory policies have positively impacted both the asset and liability sides of the insurance business, with new guidelines promoting the development of health insurance and improving underwriting profitability in non-auto insurance [11]. - The asset side has benefited from increased investment in A-shares, with insurance companies' stock investments rising to 3.62 trillion CNY, an increase of 1.19 trillion CNY from the previous year [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the insurance sector will enter a golden development period starting in 2026, driven by synchronized improvements in asset and liability conditions [13][15]. - The demand for insurance products remains high, and regulatory support is expected to continue, leading to improved profitability and valuation for insurance companies [15][16]. - The P/EV valuation for major insurance companies is currently low, ranging from 0.6 to 0.8, with expectations for gradual recovery towards 1.0 by 2026 [16].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector in A-shares has shown significant strength this year, with multiple stocks reaching new highs, driven by external policy benefits and internal asset-liability resonance [1][2][6]. Performance Summary - As of December 25, the A-share insurance sector index closed at 1554.89 points, the highest since mid-April 2021 [2]. - The insurance sector has increased by 30.54% this year, outperforming the banking sector's 11.74% and the overall non-bank financial sector's 13.74% [2]. - From September of last year to now, the cumulative increase in the A-share insurance sector has reached 58.7% [2]. Individual Stock Performance - On December 25, China Pacific Insurance reached a new high of 43 CNY per share, while Ping An Insurance hit 71.98 CNY per share, the highest since March 2021 [4]. - New China Life Insurance also reached a new high of 73.45 CNY per share on December 23 [4]. - Year-to-date, New China Life and Ping An have recorded increases of 50% and 40%, respectively, leading the sector [4]. Policy Support and Asset-Liability Resonance - The rise in insurance stock prices is attributed to the highlighting of their allocation value, supported by policy backing and asset-liability resonance [6]. - Regulatory policies have been favorable, with recent guidelines promoting high-quality development in health insurance and improving profitability in non-auto insurance [7]. - The asset side has seen increased investment in A-shares by large state-owned insurance companies, with a significant rise in stock investments [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the insurance sector will enter a golden development period starting in 2026, driven by synchronized improvements in asset and liability sides [10]. - The demand for insurance products remains high, and regulatory policies are expected to continue to support the sector, leading to potential valuation recovery [10][12]. - The P/EV (price to embedded value) ratio for major listed insurance companies is currently low, ranging from 0.6 to 0.8, with expectations for gradual recovery towards 1.0 by 2026 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance and securities sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant increases in stock prices and a positive outlook for 2026 driven by fundamental recovery and regulatory support [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 17, 2025, the CSI 800 Securities and Insurance Index rose by 2.14%, with notable stock increases: Huatai Securities up 6.50%, China Pacific Insurance up 4.27%, and China Life Insurance up 3.61% [1]. - The Insurance Securities ETF increased by 2.04%, with the latest price at 1.45 yuan [1]. Group 2: Investment Trends - In the first three quarters of 2025, listed insurance companies added over 410 billion yuan in equity investments, with high-dividend assets accounting for more than half of the new positions [1]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 800 Securities and Insurance Index account for 63.12% of the index, including major players like Ping An Insurance and CITIC Securities [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Starting in 2026, the sector is expected to see value recovery driven by easing concerns over interest margin losses and positive growth in new business value (NBV) [1]. - Regulatory policies are anticipated to support stable industry growth, with expectations of continued high-speed development in bancassurance and significant transformation in individual insurance channels [1]. - The asset side is projected to continue contributing to profits and stock price elasticity, with expectations of interest rate stabilization and rising equity values [1].

本报记者 昌校宇 近期港股市场虽经历调整，却逆势激发资金布局热情。多家公募机构积极行动，不仅缩短新基金募集期，更有新上市的交 易型开放式指数基金（ETF）产品快速建仓，彰显出机构对港股后市投资机会的乐观预期。 新成立的港股主题ETF同样展现出积极入市的姿态。以定于12月15日上市的汇添富恒指港股通ETF为例，该基金上市交易 公告书披露的基金资产组合数据显示，截至12月8日，其权益资产占基金净值的比例已接近70%，建仓速度较快。 12月份以来，多家公募机构陆续宣布旗下港股主题基金提前结束募集，部分产品甚至将原定长达数月的发行期压缩至数 天。 例如，路博迈基金于12月9日发布公告称，旗下路博迈港股通科技股票基金的募集截止日，从原定的2026年3月6日提前至 2025年12月26日，发行期明显缩短。鹏扬基金也在12月10日宣布，将旗下鹏扬港股通精选混合基金的募集截止日从2026年1月 19日调整至2025年12月12日。更有多只基金采取"闪电发行"模式，如富国基金将旗下富国港股精选混合（QDII）原定12天的募 集期缩减至仅3天，于12月10日便宣告募集结束。 华夏基金相关人士对《证券日报》记者表示："港股经历此轮 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver has once again become a market focus, with significant price increases driven by multiple factors including macroeconomic shifts, industrial demand, supply shortages, capital inflows, and value reassessment [1][4]. Group 1: Price Performance - As of December 12, COMEX silver is priced at $64.25 [2]. - Year-to-date, both London spot silver and COMEX silver futures have seen price increases exceeding 110% [3]. Group 2: Key Drivers - **Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have weakened the dollar and reduced holding costs, directly igniting precious metal pricing [5]. - **Industrial Demand**: Silver consumption in photovoltaic applications accounts for 55%, while demand from AI servers has increased by 30%, and electric vehicles are consuming several times more silver [6]. - **Supply-Demand Gap**: Global exchange inventories are at a ten-year low, sufficient for only 1.2 months of consumption, leading to heightened demand for silver [7]. - **Capital Inflows**: ETFs have increased their holdings by 500 tons over six months, with silver's market capitalization being only one-tenth that of gold, resulting in amplified volatility due to short covering [8]. - **Value Reassessment**: The gold price has reached new highs, the gold-silver ratio is returning to normal, and demand from Indian festivals is quickly realizing the potential for price increases [9]. Group 3: Market Analysis - The interplay of monetary easing, industrial revolution, mine production cuts, ETF-driven supply constraints, and emotional responses to the gold-silver ratio has led to a doubling of silver prices this year [9].

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of various financial products offered by different wealth management companies, highlighting the top-performing products in the "fixed income + equity" category for a 1-2 year investment period [5]. Group 1: Product Performance - Qingyin Wealth Management's "Brilliant Life Achievement Series Open-Ended Net Value Type (Two-Year Open Industry Theme 08)" leads the performance rankings with a net value growth rate of 10.52%, the only product exceeding 10% in the list [5]. - The product has a maximum drawdown of 0.46%, indicating strong risk control alongside high returns [5]. - Since its inception, the product has achieved a net value growth rate of 14.54%, significantly outperforming its benchmark, which had a fluctuation range of 6.58% [6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The product primarily invests in fixed income assets while selectively allocating resources to industry-themed public funds and ETFs, with a performance benchmark based on a combination of fixed deposit rates and the CSI 300 index [5]. - In Q3 2025, the product increased its allocation to resource sector ETFs, with public fund holdings rising to 15.46%, up by 6.81 percentage points from the previous quarter [6]. - The resource sector ETFs performed strongly due to various factors, including global liquidity easing and domestic policy support, with notable gains in non-ferrous metals and steel sectors [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market outlook for the resource sector in Q4 2025 is generally positive, with expectations of a shift from "technology growth" to "value recovery," making the resource sector an attractive option for investors [7]. - Qingyin Wealth Management anticipates a short-term volatile equity market with structural opportunities, while bond yields remain at historically low levels, suggesting a continued focus on stable investment strategies [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite the complete dissipation of geopolitical premiums, the macro - environment is not bearish. Although OPEC has "in principle" started to lift a new round of production cuts, this is more of a test of the "vulnerability" of the current crude oil market by Middle Eastern officials. If the oil price center rises after one month, greater production increases are expected. Therefore, it is still a window for going long in the short term. The short - term oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts still perform well. The current oil price has presented a good opportunity for left - hand side layout, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will regain upward space [15][16] - Overall, the upward space for oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. As OPEC's gradual production increase is implemented, the wide - range oscillation center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Since shale oil will still play a bottom - supporting role, it is difficult to have a continuous trend market, and grasping the driving rhythm will be more important [21] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: This week, crude oil continued its low - level oscillation pattern. The upper limit of the oil price was suppressed by macro - political factors, and the oil price fluctuations gradually converged, moving towards bottom consolidation and value restoration [15] - **Supply - Demand Changes**: OPEC discussed advancing the release of a 1.6 - million - barrel - per - day production cut plan at this meeting, and will start to lift the production cut (increase production) by 137,000 barrels per day in October. Russia announced a monthly production cut of 85,000 barrels per day from July to November and an additional cut of 9,000 barrels per day in December. It also supported extending the gasoline export ban until November. US refinery demand declined due to reduced imports, and shale oil maintained normal fluctuations. The overall crude oil fundamentals were relatively healthy, and the crack spread remained strong [15] - **Macro - Political Factors**: At the macro level, the US FOMC statement cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, restarting the interest - rate cuts that had been suspended since December last year. Powell said that this interest - rate cut was a risk - management - style cut. Overall, the Fed's statement on the subsequent interest - rate cut pace was neutral, and it believed that near - term inflation was high from the PCE perspective, but also acknowledged the risks in the labor market. Politically, the Iranian deputy foreign minister said that Europe's move to restart sanctions was an excuse to escalate the situation. The Caribbean Sea began to be monitored and surrounded by the US Navy, and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela was tense. The Russian foreign minister said that Russia was willing to continue communicating with the US, and Russia saw that the US also had the same intention [15] 3.2 Macro & Geopolitical - **Short - Term High - Frequency Macro Indicators**: The report presents charts of the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term spread in relation to the WTI oil price, which can be used to analyze the short - term impact of macro factors on oil prices [38] - **Medium - Term Macro Forecast Indicators**: The report includes charts of the euro - zone investment confidence index and the euro - zone PMI, the US investment confidence index and the US PMI, the US GDP growth rate forecast and the US crude oil consumption growth rate, and the GDP growth rate forecasts of major global countries, which can be used to predict the medium - term impact of macro factors on oil prices [44] - **Geopolitical Indicators**: The report shows charts of the Middle East geopolitical risk index and the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil from Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Russia in relation to the WTI oil price, which can be used to analyze the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices [47] 3.3 Oil Product Spreads - **Forward Curve**: The report provides charts of the WTI crude oil forward curve, the near - far structure of various crude oils, the WTI crude oil M1/M4 monthly spread, and the WTI crude oil M1 price, which can be used to analyze the forward price trends of crude oil [51] - **Inter - regional Spreads**: The report presents charts of INE/WTI, MRBN/WTI, Brent/WTI, and Brent/Dubai spreads, which can be used to analyze the price differences between different regions [56][58] - **Product Spreads**: The report includes charts of the LGO diesel forward curve, the near - far structure of refined oil products, RB/HO, and LGO/RB spreads, which can be used to analyze the price differences between different oil products [64][69] - **Crack Spreads**: The report provides charts of the crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the US, which can be used to analyze the profitability of oil refining [74][77][80] 3.4 Crude Oil Supply - **Supply from OPEC & OPEC+**: OPEC has carried out a series of production cut and production increase plans. For example, in 2025, it advanced its oil production increase plan multiple times, and on September 7, it advanced the plan to lift production cuts, with a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in October. OPEC+ also issued a new production cut plan to make up for over - production, with a monthly production cut of 189,000 - 435,000 barrels per day until June 2026. The report also presents the production, quota, and idle capacity of OPEC and OPEC+ countries, as well as the supply and export volume forecasts of OPEC 12 countries and OPEC+ major member countries [86][88][92] - **Supply from the US**: The US Treasury announced the most severe sanctions on Iran since 2018. The SPR funds were significantly cut from $1.3 billion to $171 million. The US announced a series of policies and statements, including providing defensive weapons to Ukraine, expressing satisfaction with the $64/barrel oil price, hoping that China and India would buy more US crude oil, and considering lifting sanctions on Venezuela. The US also had some policies related to refinery profit caps and trade issues [118][119]

Core Viewpoint - Dekang Agriculture (02419) has seen a significant stock price increase, with a recent rise of over 6%, currently trading at 88.65 HKD, with a transaction volume of 1.01 billion HKD [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, Dekang Agriculture reported a revenue of 11.695 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.3% [1] - The company's profit before fair value adjustments of biological assets reached 1.273 billion RMB, showing a substantial increase of 250.6% year-on-year [1] - The swine segment generated revenue of 9.879 billion RMB, which is a 32.6% increase compared to the previous year, with a sales volume of 5.1174 million pigs, up by 27.1% year-on-year [1] Market Analysis - CICC's research report indicates that Dekang's growth narrative has improved since the release of its 2024 annual report, with enhanced liquidity contributing to value recovery [1] - The estimated market value per head for the company is 2,623 RMB, suggesting there is still room for valuation improvement compared to industry leaders [1] - CICC maintains a target price of 111 HKD for Dekang Agriculture, reiterating an "outperform" rating based on the company's sustained growth fundamentals and improved trading liquidity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance this year, with sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals leading the way [1][9]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment framework prioritizes competitive barriers, followed by growth potential and valuation, which remains consistent across various market conditions [3]. - Competitive barriers are deemed essential for a company's long-term value and its ability to maintain market share against new entrants [3]. - Growth potential is influenced by the industry in which a company operates, with some industries offering more opportunities for scale and new growth avenues [3]. - Valuation is approached flexibly, with the understanding that market conditions can alter perceptions of what constitutes a fair price [3]. Group 2: Portfolio Management - The investment strategy has evolved from a "bottom-up" stock selection approach to incorporating macro and meso factors, reflecting a sensitivity to policy and capital flow impacts [4]. - The portfolio has been adjusted to a "high dividend + quality growth" strategy, which has helped mitigate losses during market downturns [5]. - The current holdings reflect a balanced approach, including both trendy and traditional sectors, showcasing a unique stock selection style [6]. Group 3: Market Insights - The Hong Kong market is characterized by institutional dominance and is less prone to bubbles, as large shareholders can quickly finance through placements if prices rise excessively [8]. - The market is currently in a phase of value recovery, with key sectors like internet and innovative pharmaceuticals still undervalued [8]. - The influence of southbound capital is significant in the dividend stock sector, while growth stocks remain a battleground for domestic and foreign investors [8]. Group 4: Company Performance - The fund managed by the company has achieved a nearly 45% return over the past year, ranking highly among peers [2][9]. - Notable holdings include companies like Pop Mart, Inspur Digital, and NetEase Cloud Music, indicating a focus on high-quality growth stocks [2][6].