航运板块研发报告 集运专题报告 2026 年 1 月 12 日 中国出口退税政策调整对集运的影响点评 第一部分 前言概要 【事件背景】 2026 年 1 月 8 日，财政部、税务总局发布关于调整光伏等产品出口退 税政策的公告，公告指出： 一、自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。具 体产品清单见附件 1。 二、自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起至 2026 年 12 月 31 日，将电池产品 的增值税出口退税率由 9%下调至 6%；2027 年 1 月 1 日起，取消电池产 品增值税出口退税。具体产品清单见附件 2。 三、对上述产品中征收消费税的产品，出口消费税政策不作调整， 继续适用消费税退（免）税政策。 【影响点评】 口日期界定。 从实施范围看，退税政策调整涉及的清单显示，受影响的产品除了光伏 和电池相关产品外，还包括化学原料及制品（基础化工原料、有机磷类化合 物等）、塑料 PVC 及聚合物类、厨房用具、陶瓷用品、有机硅、水泥、玻璃 制品等相关产品。 【策略推荐】 从实施时间看：1）对于电池产品，政策设置了两个增值税退税率调降 节点，自 2026 年尾 4 月 1 日开始，出口 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities forecasts that the oil and chemical industry will face short-term pressure on supply and demand, but a recovery point for bulk commodities is expected, with new materials and technologies emerging as highlights [1] Oil Market Outlook - Since Q4 2025, OPEC+ production increases may lead to a relaxed supply situation, but medium to long-term oil prices are expected to have bottom support [1] - Leading companies are focusing on cost reduction and volume increase strategies [1] Chemical Industry Insights - Capital expenditure growth in the chemical raw materials and products sector has shown signs of a turning point since H2 2025 [1] - Improvement in domestic demand combined with export support is anticipated in 2026, with supply optimization aided by trends like "anti-involution" [1] - High-quality chemical assets with global competitive advantages may see a revaluation [1] Specialty Chemicals and Fine Chemicals - Improvement in downstream demand and recovery of profit margins are occurring simultaneously, driven by exports and international expansion [1] Emerging Technologies and Materials - Under the guidance of policies and industry trends, innovation in new materials related to AI, new energy, and robotics is expected to accelerate [1] - Emerging technologies such as biomanufacturing are likely to develop more rapidly [1]