Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of China's export tax - rebate policy will likely lead to a phased rush of container shipments before April 1, 2026, which is favorable for near - month contracts and unfavorable for far - month contracts, and the market may show a positive arbitrage logic [4][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event Background - On January 8, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced an adjustment to the export tax - rebate policy for products such as photovoltaics. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled; for battery products, the VAT export tax - rebate rate will be reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1, 2026, and cancelled from January 1, 2027 [2] Impact Assessment - **Product Scope**: Affected products include photovoltaic and battery - related products, as well as chemical raw materials and products, plastic PVC and polymers, kitchenware, ceramic products, silicone, cement, glass products, etc [3][9] - **Export Situation**: From January to November, China's photovoltaic module export volume was 227GW, with 81.7GW exported to Europe, accounting for 35.96%. China's battery export volume was 98.7GW, a year - on - year increase of 84.8%, and nearly 90% was exported to non - European and American countries [4][9] - **Shipping Impact**: Most affected products are transported by containers. Routes to Europe, the Middle East, South America, and India - Pakistan may be more affected. Before April 1, a phased rush of container shipments is expected, which is favorable for near - month contracts and unfavorable for far - month contracts [4][20]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities forecasts that the oil and chemical industry will face short-term pressure on supply and demand, but a recovery point for bulk commodities is expected, with new materials and technologies emerging as highlights [1] Oil Market Outlook - Since Q4 2025, OPEC+ production increases may lead to a relaxed supply situation, but medium to long-term oil prices are expected to have bottom support [1] - Leading companies are focusing on cost reduction and volume increase strategies [1] Chemical Industry Insights - Capital expenditure growth in the chemical raw materials and products sector has shown signs of a turning point since H2 2025 [1] - Improvement in domestic demand combined with export support is anticipated in 2026, with supply optimization aided by trends like "anti-involution" [1] - High-quality chemical assets with global competitive advantages may see a revaluation [1] Specialty Chemicals and Fine Chemicals - Improvement in downstream demand and recovery of profit margins are occurring simultaneously, driven by exports and international expansion [1] Emerging Technologies and Materials - Under the guidance of policies and industry trends, innovation in new materials related to AI, new energy, and robotics is expected to accelerate [1] - Emerging technologies such as biomanufacturing are likely to develop more rapidly [1]