Report Overview - The report is a pulp morning report released by the Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team on January 20, 2026 [2] SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on January 19, 2026, was 5362.00. The closing prices on January 16, 15, 14, and 13 were 5362.00, 5436.00, 5494.00, and 5492.00 respectively. The corresponding dollar prices were 672.52, 672.00, 681.32, 688.33, and 687.77. The daily changes were 0.00000%, -1.36130%, -1.05570%, 0.03642%, and 0.03643% respectively. The Shandong Yinxing basis was 48, 48, 79, 56, and 58, and the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing basis was 48, 48, 74, 66, and 68 [3] Import Profit Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, the Canadian Golden Lion (CFR) had a port dollar price of 780, a Shandong region RMB price of 6300, and an import profit of 95.46. The Canadian Lion (CFR) had a port dollar price of 730, a Shandong region RMB price of 5365, and an import profit of -401.30. The Chilean Yinxing (CFR letter of credit 90 days) had a port dollar price of 700, a Shandong region RMB price of 5410, and an import profit of -165.36 [4] Pulp and Paper Price Information - From January 13 to January 19, 2026, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, unbleached pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The Shandong region average prices also remained unchanged. The cultural paper (double-offset index, double-copper index), packaging paper (white card index), and living paper (living index) prices remained unchanged. The profit margins of double-offset paper, double-copper paper, white card paper, and living paper changed to -4.5583%, 5.9250%, -9.2032%, and 6.2044% respectively, with the living paper profit margin increasing by 0.1437 [5] Price Difference Information - On January 19, 2026, the price differences between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and unbleached pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood pulp and waste paper were 730.00, 10, 1535, and 3834 respectively [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with limited orders and expectations of futures listings contributing to a wait-and-see attitude among participants [1][2] - Downstream printing factories are experiencing average order volumes, with some manufacturers in South China facing temporary shutdowns due to weather, leading to slower consumption of raw paper [2][3] Group 2: Cultural Paper - As of September 28, the market average price for 70g wood pulp high white double glue paper is 4807 RMB/ton, down 137 RMB/ton or 2.77% month-on-month [2] - The resumption of production lines in Shandong has increased market supply pressure, causing some distributors to lower their order prices [2] Group 3: White Cardboard - As of September 28, the market average price for 250-400g flat white cardboard is 3960 RMB/ton, up 0.35% from August but down 8.08% year-on-year [3] - Cost pressures remain high, with paper mills raising prices by 100 RMB/ton, which has a positive upward impact on the market [3] Group 4: Corrugated Paper - As of September 28, the market average price for AA-grade corrugated paper (120g) is 2777 RMB/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 5.27% and a year-on-year increase of 6.97% [4] - Major paper mills continue to raise factory prices and have announced shutdown plans for the National Day holiday, leading to a shift in market transaction focus [4] Group 5: Wood Pulp - The average price of imported wood pulp in September showed a downward trend, with only broadleaf pulp prices slightly increasing [5] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's main contract price for wood pulp has been fluctuating downwards, impacting the average price of imported needle wood pulp [5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - In June, the prices of pulp and paper have stabilized after a decline, with pulp prices expected to remain low and paper prices showing weakness during the off-season [3] Summary by Sections Cultural Paper - Prices and costs have stabilized with a marginal improvement in supply and demand. As of June 27, the average market price for 70g high white double glue paper was 5153 CNY/ton, down 47 CNY/ton (0.90%) month-on-month and down 573 CNY/ton (10.01%) year-on-year [5][8] - Supply and demand are expected to improve marginally as the publishing order cycle approaches, although the overall demand remains weak [10] - Profitability is stable as the average theoretical gross margin for double glue paper was 1.81%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points from May [21] White Cardboard - Prices initially increased before declining, with the average market price for 250-400g flat white cardboard at 4088 CNY/ton, a 0.29% increase from May but a 6.17% decrease year-on-year [24] - Supply and demand are expected to widen, with a forecast of increased production and limited demand during the traditional off-season [28] - Profitability has improved due to a decrease in costs, with the gross margin rising by 1.46 percentage points from May [37] Boxboard Paper - The market price for boxboard paper has decreased, with an average price of 3503 CNY/ton, down 11 CNY/ton (0.31%) from May and down 3.68% year-on-year [40] - The industry is entering a traditional off-season, leading to increased supply pressure and weak demand [44] - The profitability of the industry is under pressure due to rising costs and declining prices [40] Pulp - External prices for pulp are declining, with a supply-demand imbalance expected to persist. The new external prices for needle pulp are set at 720 USD/ton and for bleached pulp at 620 USD/ton [6][8] - The demand side remains weak, with paper mills adopting price-cutting strategies to optimize raw material procurement costs [6][8] Waste Paper - Prices have fluctuated, with overall supply and demand remaining weak. The market is experiencing a traditional off-season, leading to reduced demand [4][6]