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纸浆数据日报-20260327
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 07:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - The weak pattern of the pulp futures fundamentals continues. The upside space for short - term position reduction is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pulp Futures and Spot Prices - On March 26, 2026, for pulp futures, SP2701 had a price of 5492 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of - 1.05% and a weekly -环比 of 0.66%; SP2609 was 5242 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of - 1.43% and a weekly -环比 of 0.38%; SP2605 was 5156 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of - 1.30% and a weekly -环比 of 1.02% [5]. - For spot prices, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5200 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of 0.00% and a weekly -环比 of 2.97%; coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5050 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of 0.00% and a weekly -环比 of 3.06%; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4600 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of 0.00% and a weekly -环比 of 1.10% [5]. Pulp Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, with a month -环比 of - 4.23%, and its import cost was 5559 yuan/ton, with a month -环比 of - 4.19%. The outer - disk quote of Chilean Star was 620 dollars/ton, with a month -环比 of 3.33%, and its import cost was 5073 yuan/ton, with a month -环比 of 3.30%. The outer - disk quote of Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, with a month -环比 of 0.00%, and its import cost was 5073 yuan/ton, with a month -环比 of 0.00% [5]. Pulp Supply - side Data - In February 2026, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 58.02 tons, a month -环比 decrease of 30.86% compared to January; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 147.13 tons, a month -环比 decrease of 2.94% [5]. - The shipment volume of pulp to China in January 2026 was 170 thousand tons, a decrease of 19.80% [5]. - On March 26, 2026, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp was 26.2 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 25.3 tons [5]. Pulp Inventory - side Data - As of March 26, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 239.5 tons, an increase of 9.8 tons from the previous period, a 4.3% increase [5]. - The inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 18.6 tons [5]. Pulp Demand - side Data - On March 26, 2026, the production of double - offset paper was 21.60 tons, copper - plate paper was 8.20 tons, tissue paper was 31.21 tons, and white cardboard was 38.50 tons [5]. - The demand side of pulp has been stable recently. The price of finished paper is stable, and the production has increased this week. The price increase letters issued by paper mills are expected to be difficult to implement [5].
纸浆数据日报-20260326
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 03:04
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The weak fundamental situation of pulp futures continues, with limited room for short - term rally due to position reduction. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On March 25, 2026, SP2701 was 5550 yuan/ton, up 0.36% day - on - day and 2.93% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5318 yuan/ton, up 0.26% day - on - day and 3.02% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5224 yuan/ton, up 0.27% day - on - day and 3.65% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5200 yuan/ton, down 0.95% day - on - day but up 2.97% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5050 yuan/ton, down 0.98% day - on - day and up 3.06% week - on - week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4600 yuan/ton, with no day - on - day change and up 1.10% week - on - week [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton, Chilean Star was 600 dollars/ton, and Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, all with no change compared to the previous period [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5802 yuan/ton, Chilean Star was 4911 yuan/ton, and Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, all with no change compared to the previous period [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In February 2026, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 58.02 tons, down 30.86% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 147.13 tons, down 2.94% month - on - month [5] - **Shipment Volume to China**: In January 2026, the shipment volume of pulp to China was 170 thousand tons, down 19.80% month - on - month [5] - **Domestic Production**: On March 19, 2026, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 26.3 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 24.5 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of March 19, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 229.7 tons, down 7.6 tons from the previous period and 3.2% month - on - month; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 18.2 tons [5] - **Finished Paper Production**: On March 19, 2026, the production of offset paper was 20.60 tons, coated paper was 7.60 tons, tissue paper was 31.00 tons, and white cardboard was 37.50 tons [5] Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: In March, Chilean Arauco adjusted its pulp quotes. Coniferous pulp was offered at 880 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star at 620 dollars/ton (supplying 5% of the quantity), and unbleached pulp Venus at 620 dollars/ton [5] - **Demand - side**: The demand for pulp has been stable recently, the price of finished paper is stable, and the production has increased this week. However, the price increase notices issued by paper mills are unlikely to be implemented [5]
纸浆数据日报-20260319
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-19 06:53
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - Pulp futures have significantly increased positions and declined. The main reason is the weak current situation leading to the expectation of further decline in foreign market quotes. The bearish sentiment has not been fully released, so short - term bottom - fishing is not recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - Futures prices: SP2701 is 5392 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.52% and a weekly decline of 1.75%; SP2609 is 5162 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.69% and a weekly decline of 2.93%; SP2605 is 5040 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.94% and a weekly decline of 4.18% [5]. - Spot prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star is 5050 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.94% and a weekly decline of 5.61%; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle is 4900 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.00% and a weekly decline of 4.85%; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish is 4550 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly decline of 1.09% [5]. - Foreign market quotes: Chilean Silver Star is 710 dollars/ton, Chilean Star is 600 dollars/ton, and Chilean Venus is 620 dollars/ton, all with no monthly change [5]. - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star is 5802 yuan/ton, Chilean Star is 4911 yuan/ton, and Chilean Venus is 5073 yuan/ton, all with no monthly change [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - Import volume: In December 2025, coniferous pulp import volume was 72.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.31% compared to November; broad - leaf pulp import volume was 176.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.40% [5]. - Shipment volume to China: In January 2026, the shipment volume of pulp to China was 170 thousand tons, a decline of 19.80% [5]. - Domestic production: On March 12, 2026, broad - leaf pulp domestic production was 23.8 tons, and chemimechanical pulp domestic production was 24.5 tons [5]. - Port inventory: As of March 12, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 237.3 tons, a decrease of 3.5 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 1.5% [5]. - Futures delivery warehouse inventory: As of March 12, 2026, it was 18.0 tons [5]. - Finished paper production: On March 12, 2026, double - offset paper production was 20.10 tons, coated paper production was 7.80 tons, tissue paper production was 30.07 tons, and cardboard production was 33.40 tons [5]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Chilean Arauco's March coniferous pulp offer is 710 dollars/ton, unchanged; broad - leaf pulp Star is quoted at 620 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; natural pulp Venus is quoted at 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. - Demand: The demand side of pulp has been stable recently. Finished paper prices are stable, and production has increased this week. The price increase letters issued by paper mills are expected to be difficult to implement [5].
纸浆数据日报-20260316
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-16 07:43
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp are weak, with "Golden March and Silver April" failing to effectively boost papermaking demand. However, the chemical price increase due to the US - Iran war has a driving effect on the pulp futures market, so the overall situation is seen as oscillating [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On March 13, 2026, SP2701 futures price was 5526 yuan/ton, up 0.51% day - on - day and 0.11% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5330 yuan/ton, up 0.53% day - on - day and down 0.71% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5272 yuan/ton, up 0.38% day - on - day and down 0.94% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5300 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5150 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.98% week - on - week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4600 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week [5] - **External Quotes and Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star's external quote was 710 dollars/ton, unchanged; its import cost was 5802 yuan/ton, unchanged. Chilean Star's external quote was 600 dollars/ton, unchanged; its import cost was 4911 yuan/ton, unchanged. Chilean Venus's external quote was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged; its import cost was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In November 2025, coniferous pulp import volume was 72.5 tons, and in December 2025, it was 77.8 tons, up 7.31% month - on - month. In December 2025, broadleaf pulp import volume was 176.5 tons, and in the subsequent period, it was 135.2 tons, down 23.40% [5] - **Domestic Production Volume**: On March 12, 2026, broadleaf pulp domestic production volume was 23.8 tons; chemical mechanical pulp was 24.5 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of March 12, 2026, pulp port inventory was 237.3 tons, down 3.5 tons from the previous period, a 1.5% decline. Futures delivery warehouse inventory was 18.0 tons [5] - **Finished Paper Production Volume**: On March 12, 2026, double - offset paper production volume was 20.10 tons; coated paper was 7.80 tons; daily production of tissue paper was 30.07 tons (with another value of 33.40 tons mentioned) [5] Supply - Demand and Strategy - **Supply**: Chilean Arauco's March coniferous pulp offer was 710 dollars/ton, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Star's quote was 620 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; natural pulp Venus's quote was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] - **Demand**: Pulp demand has been stable recently, finished paper prices are stable, and production volume increased this week. Price - increase letters issued by paper mills are expected to be difficult to implement [5] - **Strategy**: This week, pulp futures warrants increased significantly, and port inventory, especially coniferous pulp, is still at an absolute high. Overall, the situation is seen as oscillating [5]
纸浆数据日报-20260203
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-02-03 03:07
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - The recent supply side of pulp has seen disruptions again, but the demand side shows a decline. The overall commodity market has been highly volatile recently. It is recommended to observe cautiously [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On February 2, 2026, SP2601 was 5440 yuan/ton, down 1.13% day-on-day and 2.33% week-on-week; SP2609 was 5306 yuan/ton, down 0.82% day-on-day and 2.21% week-on-week; SP2605 was 5266 yuan/ton, down 0.64% day-on-day and 2.01% week-on-week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On February 2, 2026, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5320 yuan/ton, down 1.12% day-on-day and 1.48% week-on-week; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5150 yuan/ton, down 0.96% day-on-day and 1.90% week-on-week; the price of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4600 yuan/ton, unchanged day-on-day and down 1.08% week-on-week [5] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% month - on - month; the quote of Chilean Star was 590 dollars/ton, up 3.51% month - on - month; the quote of Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5802 yuan/ton, up 1.42% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Star was 4830 yuan/ton, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In December 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 77.8 tons, up 7.31% month - on - month compared to November; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.2 tons, down 23.40% month - on - month [5] - **Domestic Production**: The production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated slightly from December 2025 to January 2026 [5] - **Pulp Port Inventory**: As of January 29, 2026, the inventory of Chinese pulp mainstream port samples was 216.9 tons, up 4.9% compared to the previous period, showing a continuous inventory accumulation trend for four weeks [5] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: The inventory of the futures delivery warehouse also fluctuated from December 2025 to January 2026 [5] - **Finished Paper Production**: The production of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard decreased to varying degrees [5] Supply, Demand and Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: In January, Chilean Arauco's coniferous pulp offer was 710 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; the offer of broadleaf pulp Star was 590 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; the offer of natural pulp Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] - **Demand Side**: The demand side of pulp has been stable recently. The price of tissue paper has increased slightly, and the prices of other paper products have been stable. The production of major wood - pulp paper has decreased [5] - **Inventory Side**: As of January 29, 2026, the inventory in Chinese pulp mainstream ports continued to accumulate [5]
纸浆早报-20260120
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-20 03:28
Report Overview - The report is a pulp morning report released by the Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team on January 20, 2026 [2] SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on January 19, 2026, was 5362.00. The closing prices on January 16, 15, 14, and 13 were 5362.00, 5436.00, 5494.00, and 5492.00 respectively. The corresponding dollar prices were 672.52, 672.00, 681.32, 688.33, and 687.77. The daily changes were 0.00000%, -1.36130%, -1.05570%, 0.03642%, and 0.03643% respectively. The Shandong Yinxing basis was 48, 48, 79, 56, and 58, and the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing basis was 48, 48, 74, 66, and 68 [3] Import Profit Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, the Canadian Golden Lion (CFR) had a port dollar price of 780, a Shandong region RMB price of 6300, and an import profit of 95.46. The Canadian Lion (CFR) had a port dollar price of 730, a Shandong region RMB price of 5365, and an import profit of -401.30. The Chilean Yinxing (CFR letter of credit 90 days) had a port dollar price of 700, a Shandong region RMB price of 5410, and an import profit of -165.36 [4] Pulp and Paper Price Information - From January 13 to January 19, 2026, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, unbleached pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The Shandong region average prices also remained unchanged. The cultural paper (double-offset index, double-copper index), packaging paper (white card index), and living paper (living index) prices remained unchanged. The profit margins of double-offset paper, double-copper paper, white card paper, and living paper changed to -4.5583%, 5.9250%, -9.2032%, and 6.2044% respectively, with the living paper profit margin increasing by 0.1437 [5] Price Difference Information - On January 19, 2026, the price differences between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and unbleached pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood pulp and waste paper were 730.00, 10, 1535, and 3834 respectively [5]
纸浆数据日报-20251031
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 03:51
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp fundamentals have not significantly improved, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 needle pulp contract, and the futures price may be priced according to the price of Russian needle pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 30, 2025, SP2601 was 5224, down 0.34% day - on - day and 0.50% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4846, up 0.21% day - on - day and down 0.16% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5264, down 0.23% day - on - day and 0.49% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On the same day, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian needle pulp was 5100, unchanged; and hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, unchanged [6]. - **Foreign Quotes**: The quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars, down 2.86% month - on - month; the quote of a certain product type was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; and the quote of Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [6]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% month - on - month; and the import cost of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [6]. 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month, and the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, up 4.50% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 tons, up 0.3% month - on - month, showing a narrow - range inventory accumulation trend [11]. - **Demand**: The current demand for paper products is basically stable, and paper prices have not rebounded significantly. The positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [11]. 3. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 30, 2025, the Russian needle pulp basis was 254, with a quantile level of 0.912; the Silver Star basis was 654, with a quantile level of 0.881 [6]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59, with a quantile level of 0.512; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.556 [6].
纸浆数据日报-20251028
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 06:58
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 needle pulp contract, and the futures price may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [11] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 27, 2025, SP2601 was 5258 with a daily increase of 0.34% and a weekly increase of 1.98%; SP2511 was 4836 with a daily decrease of 0.33% and a weekly decrease of 0.04%; SP2605 was 5298 with a daily increase of 0.38% and a weekly increase of 1.65% [6] - **Spot Prices**: On October 27, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500 with no daily or weekly change; Russian needle pulp was 5100 with no change; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250 with no change [6] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In October 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, a 2.86% decrease from the previous period; the quote of a certain product type was 530 dollars/ton, a 3.92% increase; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6] - **Import Costs**: In October 2025, the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, a 3.87% increase from the previous period; Chilean Silver Star was 5559, a 2.83% decrease; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a 12.54% increase from August; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a 7.79% increase. The pulp shipment volume to China in August was 162, a 4.50% increase [6] - **Production**: The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed fluctuations from August 28 to October 23, 2025 [6] - **Inventory**: As of October 23, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 205.5 tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.6 tons [6][11] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed certain fluctuations from August 28 to October 23, 2025 [6] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 27, 2025, the basis of Russian needle pulp was 264 with a quantile level of 0.913; the basis of Silver Star was 664 with a quantile level of 0.89 [6] - **Import Profit**: On October 27, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.512; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.556 [6] Market Situation - **Supply - side**: Chilean Arauco's October softwood pulp quote decreased by 20 dollars/ton to 680 dollars/ton, and the hardwood pulp Star quote remained at 540 dollars/ton. The quote of natural pulp Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6][11] - **Demand - side**: The current demand for paper products has remained basically stable, paper product prices have not rebounded significantly, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [11] - **Inventory - side**: As of October 23, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China showed a narrow - range destocking trend [11]
南华期货底部震荡
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 12:49
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The pulp futures contract rebounded slightly today but remained weak. The demand side is in the traditional off - season, with downstream paper manufacturers' inventories piling up and low procurement willingness. The supply side shows high - level fluctuations in imports and falling import prices, especially a severe oversupply of hardwood pulp. The next demand peak is expected to start in mid - August, and large - scale restocking may occur after July. The pulp price is under downward pressure in a weak supply - demand environment, and the pulp futures are unlikely to have a continuous upward trend but have limited downside space [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range of pulp is predicted to be between 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 24.32% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 79.5% [2]. - For inventory management, when the softwood pulp inventory is high, enterprises can short pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - For procurement management, when paper manufacturers' inventory is low, they can buy pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs [2]. Core Contradiction Analysis - The pulp futures are weak due to weak demand in the off - season and high - level supply. The next demand peak is expected in mid - August, and large - scale restocking may be after July. The pulp price faces downward pressure, and the futures are unlikely to rise continuously but have limited downside [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - The potential bullish factors include a significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate and the implementation of macro - policies [4]. - The bearish factor is the continuous decline of overseas pulp quotes. The report also lists the price changes of various pulp types and paper products, showing a general downward trend in pulp prices [5][7].
纸浆周报:低位反弹,关注盘面企稳情况-20250511
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-11 10:01
Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The international pulp mills' latest round of price cuts for imported hardwood pulp and the inventory build - up at European ports create short - term negative impacts on the market. Domestically, the prices of base paper are weak, and paper mills mainly purchase at low prices based on rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery progress. A rebound in the downstream operating load rate may boost industry expectations to some extent. There is also support from the cost side below. It is advisable to monitor the stabilization of the market and wait for long - entry opportunities [32]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of pulp futures, SP2507, rebounded from a low level [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of May 8, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,960 yuan/ton, down 2.55% from the previous week before the holiday, with the decline rate widening by 1.59 percentage points compared to the previous period. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,175 yuan/ton, down 3.45% from the previous week before the holiday, with the decline rate widening by 1.34 percentage points. The improvement in downstream demand was poor. Base paper enterprises mainly made purchases at low prices, the shipment speed slowed down, and the pulp market transactions were difficult to increase [13]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In March 2025, China imported 3.249 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 2.0042 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 616.87 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to March increased by 5% and 4.9% respectively compared to the same period last year. In March 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 797,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.47%. The import volume of hardwood pulp in March was 1.4699 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.47% and a year - on - year increase of 22.19% [16]. - **Port Inventory**: As of May 8, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 1.9731 million tons, down 3.33% from the previous week, with the decline rate widening by 0.63 percentage points compared to the previous week [18]. - **European Inventory in March**: According to Europulp data, in March 2025, the total inventory at European ports increased by 7.60% month - on - month and 25.96% compared to March 2024. Only the inventory at German ports decreased by 9.30% month - on - month. Overall, the inventory at most European ports increased month - on - month, driving the total inventory at European ports to increase in March [21]. 3. Future Outlook - Arauco of Chile adjusted its pulp export quotes for April 2025. The price of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was lowered by 55 US dollars/ton to 770 US dollars/ton, the price of natural pulp (Venus) was lowered by 40 US dollars/ton to 650 US dollars/ton, and the price of hardwood pulp (Star) was lowered by 70 US dollars/ton to 560 US dollars/ton, a significant reduction compared to the previous round of quotes. Considering the foreign inventory situation, the overall inventory at European ports increased in March 2025. The price cuts of imported hardwood pulp by international pulp mills and the inventory build - up at European ports create short - term negative impacts on the market. Domestically, the prices of base paper are weak, and paper mills mainly purchase at low prices based on rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery progress. A rebound in the downstream operating load rate may boost industry expectations to some extent. There is also support from the cost side below. It is advisable to monitor the stabilization of the market and wait for long - entry opportunities [32].