Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The pulp futures contract rebounded slightly today but remained weak. The demand side is in the traditional off - season, with downstream paper manufacturers' inventories piling up and low procurement willingness. The supply side shows high - level fluctuations in imports and falling import prices, especially a severe oversupply of hardwood pulp. The next demand peak is expected to start in mid - August, and large - scale restocking may occur after July. The pulp price is under downward pressure in a weak supply - demand environment, and the pulp futures are unlikely to have a continuous upward trend but have limited downside space [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range of pulp is predicted to be between 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 24.32% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 79.5% [2]. - For inventory management, when the softwood pulp inventory is high, enterprises can short pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - For procurement management, when paper manufacturers' inventory is low, they can buy pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs [2]. Core Contradiction Analysis - The pulp futures are weak due to weak demand in the off - season and high - level supply. The next demand peak is expected in mid - August, and large - scale restocking may be after July. The pulp price faces downward pressure, and the futures are unlikely to rise continuously but have limited downside [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - The potential bullish factors include a significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate and the implementation of macro - policies [4]. - The bearish factor is the continuous decline of overseas pulp quotes. The report also lists the price changes of various pulp types and paper products, showing a general downward trend in pulp prices [5][7].

Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The international pulp mills' latest round of price cuts for imported hardwood pulp and the inventory build - up at European ports create short - term negative impacts on the market. Domestically, the prices of base paper are weak, and paper mills mainly purchase at low prices based on rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery progress. A rebound in the downstream operating load rate may boost industry expectations to some extent. There is also support from the cost side below. It is advisable to monitor the stabilization of the market and wait for long - entry opportunities [32]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of pulp futures, SP2507, rebounded from a low level [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of May 8, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,960 yuan/ton, down 2.55% from the previous week before the holiday, with the decline rate widening by 1.59 percentage points compared to the previous period. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,175 yuan/ton, down 3.45% from the previous week before the holiday, with the decline rate widening by 1.34 percentage points. The improvement in downstream demand was poor. Base paper enterprises mainly made purchases at low prices, the shipment speed slowed down, and the pulp market transactions were difficult to increase [13]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In March 2025, China imported 3.249 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 2.0042 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 616.87 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to March increased by 5% and 4.9% respectively compared to the same period last year. In March 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 797,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.47%. The import volume of hardwood pulp in March was 1.4699 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.47% and a year - on - year increase of 22.19% [16]. - **Port Inventory**: As of May 8, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 1.9731 million tons, down 3.33% from the previous week, with the decline rate widening by 0.63 percentage points compared to the previous week [18]. - **European Inventory in March**: According to Europulp data, in March 2025, the total inventory at European ports increased by 7.60% month - on - month and 25.96% compared to March 2024. Only the inventory at German ports decreased by 9.30% month - on - month. Overall, the inventory at most European ports increased month - on - month, driving the total inventory at European ports to increase in March [21]. 3. Future Outlook - Arauco of Chile adjusted its pulp export quotes for April 2025. The price of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was lowered by 55 US dollars/ton to 770 US dollars/ton, the price of natural pulp (Venus) was lowered by 40 US dollars/ton to 650 US dollars/ton, and the price of hardwood pulp (Star) was lowered by 70 US dollars/ton to 560 US dollars/ton, a significant reduction compared to the previous round of quotes. Considering the foreign inventory situation, the overall inventory at European ports increased in March 2025. The price cuts of imported hardwood pulp by international pulp mills and the inventory build - up at European ports create short - term negative impacts on the market. Domestically, the prices of base paper are weak, and paper mills mainly purchase at low prices based on rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery progress. A rebound in the downstream operating load rate may boost industry expectations to some extent. There is also support from the cost side below. It is advisable to monitor the stabilization of the market and wait for long - entry opportunities [32].