Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Overweight" [6] Core Views - In July, the decline in pulp and paper prices slowed, with expectations for a rebound in pulp prices and stabilization in white paper prices, while black paper prices continued to rise [2] Summary by Sections Cultural Paper - Prices for cultural paper have been declining, with the average market price for 70g high white double glue paper at 5094 CNY/ton, down 1.11% month-on-month and 9.34% year-on-year [10][23] - Supply and demand remain imbalanced, with production recovering but overall demand still weak [13][10] - Profitability is stable as both prices and costs are declining, with the average theoretical gross margin at 1.59% [23] White Cardboard - Prices continue to decline due to weak seasonal demand, with the average market price for 250-400g white cardboard at 4036 CNY/ton, down 1.25% month-on-month and 9.02% year-on-year [24] - The supply-demand gap is expected to widen, putting further pressure on prices [27] - Profit margins are decreasing as the price drop exceeds the cost drop, with gross margins declining [39] Boxboard - Prices for boxboard have shown mixed trends, with the average price at 3449 CNY/ton, down 1.49% month-on-month [42] - Demand is expected to recover in August, alleviating some supply pressure [46] - Profitability remains low as the price drop is greater than the cost drop [11] Waste Paper - The supply of waste paper is tight, leading to a gradual increase in prices [12] Wood Chips - Import volumes have increased month-on-month, with overall demand stabilizing [14] Wood Pulp - External prices are stabilizing, but the supply-demand imbalance persists, with average prices for imported hardwood pulp at 490 USD/ton [15][6]

造纸供需矛盾仍存，纸价盈利处于历史较低水平。 截至 8 月第一周，双胶纸、白卡纸价格新低，吨毛利亏损，低于历史十年 20% 分位线，箱瓦纸提价后处 于历史 11-12% 分位水平，毛利低于 10% 分位线 。 箱瓦纸龙头多轮提价， 7 月底至 8 月初提价加速落地 。 7 月以来玖龙多个基地发布多轮提价函，牛卡箱板纸报价累计提涨 30-140 元 / 吨，瓦楞纸报价累 计提涨 60-140 元 / 吨，带动华东、华北、华中再生箱板纸累计涨幅 60-85 元 / 吨， AA 级高瓦累计涨幅 105-130 元 / 吨。从提价落地节奏来看， 7 月底落地明显加速，我们认为主要由于成本端国废价格稳步抬升，促使 7 月中下旬起小厂积极跟随涨价。 瓦楞纸价格涨幅逐步赶上成本涨幅，盈利开始回升 。 25 年一季度箱瓦纸盈利见顶， 7 月纸价回升幅度不及成本涨幅，盈利下行， 8 月瓦楞纸涨幅逐步赶上 成本涨幅，盈利开始回升，箱板纸由于前期主要以再生箱板纸上涨为主，高端箱板纸涨幅有限，总体盈利仍在收窄。 美对巴西木浆关税豁免，龙头浆厂宣布转产、减产，支撑浆价上涨。 7 月 30 日美国对巴西木浆豁免加征 40% 关税，避免了 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the prices of pulp and paper are experiencing a downward trend, with pulp prices expected to remain low and paper prices approaching a weak seasonal period [1][2][3][4] Group 2 - Cultural paper prices and costs are both declining, with a marginal improvement in supply and demand expected. As of May 28, the market average price for 70g high white double glue paper is 5204 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.84% month-on-month. Factors include weak orders from paper mills, general inventory pressure, and limited support from downstream demand [1] - Whiteboard prices initially fell before slightly rebounding, with an overall downward trend in supply and demand. As of May 28, the market average price for 250-400g flat white cardboard is 4075 yuan/ton, down 3.28% month-on-month. The market faced weak orders and a supply surplus, although a slight recovery was noted mid-month due to improved macro sentiment [2] - Boxboard prices and profitability continue to decline as the off-season approaches, with the average market price for corrugated paper at 3511 yuan/ton, down 0.90% month-on-month. Initial price drops were followed by a slight increase due to tariff adjustments, but overall demand remains weak [3] - Pulp prices are declining due to limited demand improvement. External prices for needle and hardwood pulp have been adjusted downwards, with domestic hardwood pulp prices also under pressure. Downstream raw paper companies are maintaining low inventory levels, limiting upward price momentum in the pulp market [4]