2026年大量存款到期，低利率时代下，"固收+"产品或成资 金新去向，有望迎来爆发式增长。 作者：王海言 封图：图虫创意 随着2026年大量居民定期存款到期，以公募基金"固收+"为代表的中低风险资管产品将承接多少 到期的定期存款？ 1月15日，中国人民银行相关负责人在新闻发布会上表示，2026年将有规模较大的三年期及五年 期等长期存款到期重新定价。中金公司的研究报告指出，测算居民定期存款2026年到期规模约75 万亿元，其中1年期及以上存款到期约67万亿元，高于市场50万亿左右的测算；估算2026年居民 全部和1年期以上定期存款到期相比2025年增长分别为12%和17%，同比增加8万亿元和10万亿 元*。考虑到当前消费意愿仍相对偏弱以及房地产需求相对有限，预计上述活化资金或大概率将流 向投资领域，部分银行存款"搬家"或已成市场共识。 如果说宏观环境和风险偏好是部分存款资金流向"固收+"的重要动力，经过多年发展提升和投资者 教育，"固收+"的产品和理念被越来越多投资者接受，则是另一个水到渠成的因素。 2025年以来，在权益市场结构性机会显现、赚钱效应相对较不错的背景下，渠道端的银行理财子 公司与公募基金也积极推 ...

随着2026年大量居民定期存款到期，以公募基金"固收+"为代表的中低风险资管产品将承接多少到期的 定期存款？ 1月15日，中国人民银行相关负责人在新闻发布会上表示，2026年将有规模较大的三年期及五年期等长 期存款到期重新定价。中金公司（601995）的研究报告指出，测算居民定期存款2026年到期规模约75万 亿元，其中1年期及以上存款到期约67万亿元，高于市场50万亿左右的测算；估算2026年居民全部和1年 期以上定期存款到期相比2025年增长分别为12%和17%，同比增加8万亿元和10万亿元*。考虑到当前消 费意愿仍相对偏弱以及房地产需求相对有限，预计上述活化资金或大概率将流向投资领域，部分银行存 款"搬家"或已成市场共识。 与此同时，已发展超过10年的公募基金"固收+"产品经过快速起步、调整优化以及再度爆发，无论是满 足适配投资者需求，还是优质产品的资产配置、价值发现能力都步入新阶段，"固收+"会在2026年再次 成为投资者的"心头好"，迎来爆发式增长吗？ 多因素或有望推动"固收+"承接到期存款 2026年，宏观经济或将延续边际改善态势，整体呈现"修复式增长"格局，在此背景下，银行储户风险偏 好或整体保 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Yunjigroup's stock price dropped by 5.21% to 29.84 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 7.01 billion CNY as of the report date [1] - Yunjigroup, established on September 28, 2003, specializes in the research, design, production, and sales of energy-saving and environmentally friendly conveyor machinery, primarily belt conveyors [1] - The main revenue composition of Yunjigroup includes 76.11% from conveyor equipment, 9.83% from permanent magnet motor drums, 8.51% from technical services and spare parts, and 5.55% from other sources [1] Group 2 - According to data, Bosera Fund's Bosera Convertible Bond Enhanced Bond A (050019) entered the top ten circulating shareholders of Yunjigroup in the third quarter, holding 1.6096 million shares, which is 1.06% of the circulating shares [2] - The estimated floating loss for Bosera Convertible Bond Enhanced Bond A today is approximately 2.6397 million CNY [2] - The fund was established on November 24, 2010, with a current scale of 1.213 billion CNY, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 28.7%, ranking 17th out of 6222 in its category [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a strong rise in the technology sector led by AI and self-sufficiency, while the bond market continues to adjust due to multiple factors, prompting investors to shift towards "fixed income +" strategies for risk-return balance [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of the end of Q3, the total scale of "fixed income +" funds reached 2.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 513.997 billion yuan from the end of Q2, becoming the main growth driver in the public fund market [2]. - The bond market is experiencing adjustments due to the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, and tight liquidity at the end of the quarter [1][2]. Group 2: Company Performance -博时基金's "fixed income +" segment has shown remarkable performance, achieving both scale and performance growth, with its fixed income + funds exceeding 52 billion yuan by the end of Q3 [2][3]. - Several博时基金 products demonstrated strong capital-raising capabilities, with博时恒乐债券 reaching 18.924 billion yuan, a 259% increase from Q2, and博时稳健增利债券 growing from 39.3 million yuan to 1.0575 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 2590.84% [2]. Group 3: Fund Performance -博时基金's fixed income + products have shown strong performance, with six products achieving over 10% returns in the past year [2]. -博时转债增强债券 A achieved a return of 34.25%, significantly outperforming its benchmark return of 2.87%, resulting in an excess return of 31.38% [2]. Group 4: Investment Strategies -博时基金 employs a comprehensive product matrix covering various risk profiles, including aggressive, balanced, and low-volatility strategies, to match different investor risk-return preferences [3]. - The aggressive strategy focuses on high-growth sectors such as technology and defense, while the balanced strategy aims for optimal risk-return through dynamic equity and bond allocation [4][5]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The global economic slowdown and challenges in the Chinese economy, including real estate adjustments and fluctuating consumer confidence, are expected to impact market dynamics [7]. -博时基金 managers anticipate continued market differentiation, with a focus on sectors with reasonable valuations and growth potential in the upcoming quarter [8].

Core Viewpoint - 博时基金管理有限公司 announced adjustments to large-scale subscription, conversion, and regular investment operations for the 博时转债增强债券型证券投资基金 effective from August 18, 2025, to protect the interests of fund shareholders [1] Group 1: Fund Adjustments - 博时转债增强债券型证券投资基金 will implement changes to large-scale subscription and investment limits [1] - Specific details regarding the adjustments for the sub-funds are provided, including the suspension of large-scale subscriptions and the limits for subscriptions, transfers, and regular investments [1] - The adjustments aim to safeguard the interests of fund shareholders amidst changing market conditions [1]

Core Insights - Yunjigroup has experienced a decline for five consecutive trading days, with a cumulative drop of -8.28% [1] - Sichuan Zigong Transportation Machinery Group Co., Ltd. was established in September 2003 and is a leading enterprise in the design, manufacturing, and installation of bulk material conveying machinery in China [1] - The company is recognized as a key high-tech enterprise under the National Torch Program and is a prominent manufacturer in the western region of China [1] Financial Performance - Bosera Fund's Bosera Convertible Bond Enhanced Bond A has entered the top ten shareholders of Yunjigroup and is a new addition in the second quarter of this year [1] - The fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 17.73%, ranking 8th among 1229 similar funds [2] Fund Management - The fund managers for Bosera Convertible Bond Enhanced Bond A are Guo Jun and Gao Hui [4][7] - Guo Jun has extensive experience in fixed income and has been with Bosera Fund since 2005, managing various funds over the years [5][6] - Gao Hui has been managing funds since 2011 and currently oversees multiple funds, including the Bosera Convertible Bond Enhanced Bond A [7]

Core Insights - In the first half of 2023, 95% of the 6,831 comparable bond funds reported positive performance, with 6,505 funds increasing in value, 29 remaining flat, and 297 declining [1][2] - The top-performing funds included Huashang Fengli Enhanced Regular Open Bond A and C, with returns of 18.35% and 18.11% respectively, primarily investing in convertible bonds [1][2] - Historical data shows that Huashang Fengli Enhanced Regular Open Bond A/C has achieved a cumulative return of over 130% since its inception in September 2016, indicating strong stability [1] Fund Performance - The second tier of funds, such as China Europe Convertible Bond A and Bosheng Convertible Bond Enhanced A, reported gains exceeding 12%, with specific returns of 12.53% and 12.36% respectively [2][3] - The top holdings of these funds predominantly include convertible bonds, with a small allocation to government bonds [2] - The fund managers of these top-performing funds have extensive experience, with some managing public funds for nearly two decades [2][3] Declining Funds - Despite the overall positive market trend, only 9 bond funds experienced declines of over 2%, with the largest drop being 2.47% for the Green Ju Xin Enhanced Bond C, which held no bond assets [3][4] - Other funds that declined include Norde Enhanced Yield Bond, which fell by 2.33%, primarily holding government bonds and a small percentage of stocks [4] - The overall trend indicates a strong bond market performance, with only a few exceptions among the funds [3][4]

Group 1 - In the first four months of this year, 5702 out of 6860 comparable bond funds reported positive performance, accounting for 83% of the total [1] - The top-performing funds include Huashang Fengli Enhanced Regular Open Bond A and C, with returns of 11.21% and 11.03% respectively [1] - The majority of the assets in these top funds are in bonds, with Huashang Fengli Enhanced Regular Open Bond A holding 73.79% in bonds, primarily convertible bonds [1] Group 2 - The fund manager of the top-performing FuGuo Optimized Enhanced Bond has 9 years of experience managing public funds and has held various roles in fixed income research and management [2] - The top four bond holdings of FuGuo Optimized Enhanced Bond are all financial bonds, indicating a focus on the financial sector [2] - Huabao Convertible Bond and Boshi Convertible Bond Enhanced funds are managed by experienced professionals with extensive backgrounds in fixed income securities [3] Group 3 - A few bond funds, such as Renbao Xinli Bond C and ZheShang Fengli Enhanced Bond, experienced declines of over 2% in the same period, despite the overall positive trend in the bond market [4] - The first major holding of Renbao Xinli Bond is medium-term notes, which constitute 44.56% of its net asset value [4] - ZheShang Fengli Enhanced Bond primarily invests in convertible bonds, with significant holdings in companies like Midea Group and Guizhou Moutai [4] Group 4 - The performance data for the top 100 bond funds shows a significant disparity, with some funds experiencing declines while others achieve substantial gains [5][6] - The overall trend indicates a strong performance in the bond market, with only a few funds reporting significant losses [3][4] - The data highlights the importance of fund management experience and strategy in achieving positive returns in the bond market [2][3]