Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict involving Iran, which has led to significant disruptions in oil supply and increased market volatility [1][3][4] - WTI crude oil prices surged approximately 19% last week, reaching around $108 per barrel, following a record increase of 36% in the previous week, indicating a volatile oil market influenced by geopolitical events [3] - The U.S. stock index futures fell by 1.5% on Monday, reflecting investor concerns over rising oil prices and inflation expectations, while the Australian 3-year government bond yield soared to its highest level since July 2011 due to these pressures [3] Group 2 - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) spiked to nearly 30, indicating heightened market volatility and investor anxiety, with spot prices exceeding their three-month futures prices, marking the largest price inversion in nearly a year [4] - Recent U.S. labor market data showed a decrease of 92,000 non-farm jobs last month, the largest drop since the pandemic began, contributing to rising unemployment rates at 4.4%, which may influence monetary policy decisions [4] - The ongoing crisis has created a dilemma for investors, balancing the risks of high oil prices leading to renewed inflation against signs of a cooling U.S. labor market that may necessitate monetary easing [3]

期货研究报告 2026年03月02日 周报 原油期货：地缘冲突升级 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号：F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：2月28日，美国中央司令部表示在美国总统的指示下启动了"史诗怒火行动 （OPERATION EPIC FURY）"行动。伊朗与美国、以色列之间的地缘冲突已经正式升级，预计进一步推动原油走 强。其他方面，OPEC+宣布增产，供应端对原油的压制增强。当前地缘冲突主导油价，走势偏强。 2、对于后市。据央视新闻消息，石油输出国组织（欧佩克）1日发表声明说，8个主要产油国决定4月日均 增产20.6万桶，供应增加压制原油。伊朗与美国、以色列之间的地缘冲突已经正式升级。整体来看，供应增速 压力仍存；短期看战争走向，战争走向主导当前油价。 3、关注因素：1.地缘政治；2.原油周度数据。 2、本周基本面数据周度变化： 原油 单位 最新一周 上一期 周度环比变化量 周度环比变化率 频率 SC原油期货 元/桶 483.60 506.46 -22.86 -4.51% 日度 阿曼原油现货 美元/桶 71.36 67.25 4.11 6.11% 日度 ...