Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil futures are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong [1][5] - Geopolitical risks boost the market, and the weak supply - demand pattern in the oil market is gradually weakening, leading to a strong rebound in crude oil futures prices last Friday and an expected oscillatory and strong trend for domestic crude oil futures on Monday [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - For crude oil 2602, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is strong, with an overall reference view of strong operation [1] 3.2 Core Logic - The US President Trump frequently releases geopolitical risk signals, with Greenland and Mexico potentially becoming targets, and the US threatening a new round of military strikes on Iran, intensifying Middle - East geopolitical risks [5] - The re - strengthening of crude oil premium weakens the weak supply - demand pattern in the oil market, supporting the strong rebound of crude oil futures prices last Friday and the expected strong trend on Monday [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report predicts that the post - holiday domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile and moderately strong trend. Although there are geopolitical factors driving up prices, the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is a long - term drag on prices [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Time - cycle Views - **Short - term (within one week)**: The short - term view for crude oil 2602 is "volatile" [1]. - **Medium - term (two weeks to one month)**: The medium - term view for crude oil 2602 and SC crude oil is "volatile" [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view for crude oil 2602 and SC crude oil is "moderately strong" [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - **Positive Factors**: During the New Year's Day holiday, the US Delta Force raided the capital of Venezuela and kidnapped President Maduro and his wife, and President Trump threatened other South American countries, which led to a rapid increase in geopolitical risks and may drive up oil prices after the holiday [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The long - term logic that weighs down oil prices is the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market. There are still concerns about global supply glut, which keeps the pessimistic sentiment of funds lingering [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic crude oil futures are expected to run weakly and maintain a volatile and weak trend. The short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Situation - For the crude oil 2602 contract, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1]. Driving Logic - The recent sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the direct and strong driving force for the oil price rebound. The US has increased pressure on Venezuela, with about 600 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil seized and about 600,000 barrels per day of exports in November. The number of tankers going to Venezuela has decreased, raising concerns about a global supply gap and increasing the risk premium of oil prices. Additionally, the attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine makes geopolitical factors dominant in the short - term oil market. After the short - term positive factors are digested, the domestic crude oil futures prices showed a volatile and weak trend on the night of last Friday, and are expected to maintain this trend on Monday [5].

Core Insights - The report indicates a strong short-term outlook for crude oil, driven by increased geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, overshadowing the negative impact of supply surplus in the oil futures market [5]. Summary by Sections Short-term Outlook - The short-term outlook for crude oil is characterized as "震荡" (fluctuating) with a strong bias, suggesting a potential for price increases due to geopolitical tensions [5]. Medium-term Outlook - The medium-term perspective remains "震荡" (fluctuating), indicating that while there may be volatility, the overall trend is not expected to change significantly in the near future [5]. Daily Perspective - The daily viewpoint is described as "偏强" (slightly strong), reflecting a positive sentiment in the market for crude oil prices, which are expected to maintain a strong performance [5]. Key Drivers - The core logic driving the current market sentiment includes renewed geopolitical tensions, particularly Israel's concerns over Iran's military expansion, which has heightened risks in the region. This has led to a rebound in domestic crude oil futures prices, despite ongoing supply pressures and accumulating global oil inventories [5].

Report Summary of Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil futures contract 2602 is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and the intraday trend being strong [1][5]. Summary by Related Content Time - cycle Viewpoints - For the crude oil 2602 contract, the short - term trend (within one week) is volatile, the medium - term trend (two weeks to one month) is volatile, and the intraday trend is strong [1]. Price and Market Conditions - Saudi Arabia has lowered the selling price of its main crude oil varieties to Asia to the lowest level in five years, and global crude oil inventories are continuously accumulating, indicating increasing supply pressure in the crude oil market. The weakening of the crude oil market's monthly spread and refined oil cracking spread also shows a weak supply - demand structure in the oil market [5]. Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of the conflict between the US and Venezuela has increased the geopolitical risk premium [1][5]. Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures prices showed a volatile and strong trend with a slight rebound. It is expected that on Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures will maintain a strong pattern [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil futures contract 2602 is expected to run weakly, with a short - term and medium - term trend of oscillation and an intraday trend of weakness [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - period Views - Short - term (within one week): The trend of crude oil 2602 is oscillatory [1] - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The trend of crude oil 2602 is oscillatory [1] - Intraday: The trend of crude oil 2602 is weak, and it is expected to run weakly [1][5] 3.2 Core Logic - Geopolitical premium is weakening as there are signs of compromise in Ukraine and the US is mediating to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which weakens the upward momentum of international oil prices [5] - Saudi Arabia has lowered the price of its main crude oil products for Asia to the lowest level in five years, and global crude oil inventories are accumulating, increasing the supply pressure in the crude oil market [5] - The contango in the crude oil market and the weakening of refined oil crack spreads indicate a weak supply - demand structure in the oil market [5] - The domestic crude oil futures price oscillated weakly and dropped significantly on Tuesday night, and it is expected to maintain a weak pattern on Wednesday [5]