中国动力 20251216 摘要 中国动力受益于全球船舶周期上行，尽管 2025 年新船订单量下降，但 散货船和油轮老化及新船交付减少导致供给侧脆弱，需求侧受西芒杜铁 矿投运和美联储降息影响，干散货船订单有望增长，未来仍具市场潜力。 中国动力当前市值约 400 亿元，与账上现金相当，PB 约为 1.1 倍，PE 预计 2026 年十几倍，估值较低。股价上涨驱动因素包括新船订单量和 价格回升、原材料成本下降与产品价格提升的剪刀差效应，以及并购整 合带来的产能扩张。 船用柴油发动机市场由设计端（曼恩、瓦锡兰）和制造端（韩国、中国、 日本）构成。中国动力在制造端市场份额达 40%-50%，产能接近 1,000 万马力，双燃料主机需求增加推动产品价格上涨，具备提升市场 份额与盈利能力潜力。 供给侧沿海车间扩产受限，双燃料主机造价高，供给有限。需求侧新船 订单增长，散货船和油轮老化带来新需求，中国动力还将受益于温机后 续 MRO 市场，长期发展前景乐观。 自 2021 年以来，中国动力单位马力价格逐年上涨，2024 年平均涨幅 约 6%。钢材成本下降，毛利率从 2021 年的 12.9%增至 2024 年的 21%，表 ...

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 51.7 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.391 billion yuan, up 78% [1] - The company's diesel engine business generated revenue of 22.9 billion yuan in 2024, a 33% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 21%, up 5.2 percentage points [1] - The company is focusing on high-quality orders, with new low-speed engine orders decreasing by 20.09% year-on-year, while the gross margin for new orders increased by 4 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The company has established a global service network for low-speed engines, covering major shipping ports in the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and America, which could contribute approximately 1.1 billion yuan in net profit annually if the maintenance business fully covers the WinGD brand [2] - The acquisition of minority stakes in the ship diesel engine business from the parent company is a key valuation consideration, with potential costs ranging from 22.6 billion yuan to 71 billion yuan depending on the financing method [2] Group 3 - The implementation of the 301 new plan is expected to positively impact shipyards by eliminating certain fees for new ship orders, which may lead to a recovery in order volumes and ship prices [3] - The company is expected to see an increase in net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with projected profits of 2.053 billion yuan, 3.101 billion yuan, and 3.572 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]