J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 28 January 2026 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Power Equipment Expert call takeaways on 15th FYP grid capex; Nari Tech and Sieyuan Electric our top picks in 1H26 The share prices of China po ...

2026年开年以来，中国电力设备板块表现亮眼。摩根大通1月28日发布一份研究报告，称其覆盖的电力 设备公司股价年初至今平均上涨约20%，大幅跑赢同期上证综指约5%的涨幅。 摩根大通认为，这一强劲表现背后，是超预期的电网资本开支与持续旺盛的出口需求形成的双重支撑。 随着"十五五"规划对电网投资的部署逐步明晰，特高压、配网自动化等关键领域投资加速，电力设备行 业正迎来新一轮黄金发展周期。 01 十五五电网投资蓝图明晰 摩根大通与行业专家交流确认，"十五五"期间中国电网投资将呈现加速态势，投资重点明确且增长动力 强劲。 在投资规模方面，特高压作为电网投资的核心抓手，投资额度将实现显著跃升。"十五五"期间特高压投 资将从"十四五"的3800亿元增至5000亿元以上，规划批准20条直流特高压线路和15条交流特高压线路。 其中，仅"十五五"前两年就将批准6条直流特高压线路，特高压审批速度的加快将直接拉动相关设备需 求集中释放。 投资结构上，"十五五"电网投资将聚焦三大核心领域：特高压工程、二次设备以及配网建设。具体来 看，继电保护设备、电力调度自动化系统、虚拟电厂相关系统、电力交易系统等产品需求将持续旺盛， 直流特高压线 ...

中证智能财讯华明装备（002270）1月22日晚间披露2025年业绩快报，公司实现营业收入24.25亿元，同比增长4.43%；归母净利润7.08亿元，同比增长 15.29%；扣非净利润6.76亿元，同比增长16.15%；基本每股收益0.7828元，加权平均净资产收益率为22.08%。以1月22日收盘价计算，华明装备目前市盈率 （TTM）约为40.4倍，市净率（LF）约9.55倍，市销率（TTM）约11.73倍。 以本次披露业绩快报数据计算，公司近年市盈率（TTM）图如下所示： 资料显示，公司核心业务为电力设备业务，主要为变压器分接开关的研发、生产、销售和全生命周期的运维检修；此外还有电力工程业务，主要为新能源电 站的承包、设计施工运维；以及数控机床业务，成套数控设备、激光设备的研发、生产和销售。 据公告，公司核心业务电力设备实现营业收入21亿元，同比增长约16%，首次突破20亿元，其中电力设备业务海外用户收入（直接加间接出口）同比增长约 47%。公司数控设备业务实现营业收入2.44亿元，同比增长约40%，其中出口收入同比增长约233%。公司电力工程业务营业收入0.29亿元，同比减少约 90%。 数据显示，20 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Huaming Equipment with a "Buy" rating, assigning a target price of 29.5 RMB based on a 30.4x PE for 2026 [3][8][15]. Core Views - Huaming Equipment ranks first in the domestic transformer tap changer industry and second globally, with a robust growth outlook driven by overseas expansion, maintenance services, and ultra-high voltage (UHV) business [3][15]. - The global power grid investment is entering an upward cycle, which is expected to boost the company's performance significantly, with a projected CAGR of 18.7% for net profit from 2025 to 2027 [3][15]. - The company is transitioning from a "device manufacturer" to a "full lifecycle service provider," leveraging its high installed base for maintenance services, which presents substantial growth potential [5][18]. Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - The report highlights that global power grid investments are on the rise, with significant constraints on overseas power equipment supply. The company’s export scale is expected to grow, with direct and indirect exports projected at 3.4 billion, 4.9 billion, and 3.1 billion RMB for 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 61.9%, 42.6%, and 45.3% [4][16]. - The company is actively exploring opportunities in Europe, Southeast Asia, and North America, with a focus on localized layouts and customized solutions [4][16]. Ultra-High Voltage and Maintenance Services - The domestic ultra-high voltage market is anticipated to grow significantly, with the company expected to capture a 60% market share, translating to an additional revenue of 2.2 billion RMB during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5][17]. - The maintenance business is projected to reach a potential revenue scale of 7 billion RMB, with a significant increase in orders expected in the coming years [18]. Competitive Advantages - The company maintains a high gross margin, consistently above 55% since 2019, attributed to its strong market position and R&D capabilities, which create substantial barriers to entry for competitors [6][19]. - Huaming Equipment's comprehensive manufacturing capabilities, with 80% of components produced in-house, enhance its cost control and supply chain stability, particularly advantageous during periods of overseas market tightness [6][19]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 7.30 billion, 8.66 billion, and 10.28 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.81, 0.97, and 1.15 RMB [7][12]. - The company’s overall revenue is expected to grow from 2.32 billion RMB in 2024 to 3.29 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [12][13].

Group 1: Real Estate Industry - The core viewpoint is that the official launch of commercial real estate REITs marks a significant step towards a new development model in the real estate sector, with policies expected to accelerate the growth of C-REITs [2] - The introduction of 30 REITs-related policies by the CSRC and stock exchanges is seen as a catalyst for expanding asset classes and enhancing efficiency, which could lead to a revaluation of related assets and companies [2] - Companies deeply involved in commercial real estate and management services are expected to benefit significantly from this development [2] Group 2: Financial Services Industry - The recent guidelines from the central bank and financial regulatory authority aim to reduce the pricing cap for small loan companies, which may lead to a rapid industry cleanup [3] - The guidelines require small loan companies to stop issuing loans with comprehensive financing costs exceeding 24% immediately and to gradually lower pricing to within four times the one-year LPR by the end of 2027 [3] - The impact of these guidelines on the broader financial technology sector will depend on whether banks and consumer finance companies follow suit [3] Group 3: Transportation Industry - The outlook for January indicates a seasonal decline in passenger and cargo volumes, but there are positive signs for airline profitability and oil transportation demand [5] - The airline sector is expected to see improved revenue levels due to steady demand growth and favorable oil prices, while oil transportation rates may rise due to geopolitical tensions [5] - Recommendations include focusing on specific stocks in the airline and oil transportation sectors, as well as logistics and express delivery companies [5] Group 4: ETF Market - By the end of 2025, the total scale of ETFs in China surpassed 6 trillion yuan, with a significant increase driven by stock ETFs, which saw a 42% growth [5] - There is a notable divergence in the performance of broad-based ETFs and thematic industry ETFs, with the latter experiencing continued inflows [5] Group 5: Key Companies - Century Huatong is covered for the first time with a "buy" rating and a target price of 24.52 yuan, driven by its leadership in SLG games and strong performance in overseas markets [6] - New and emerging companies like Xinhecheng and Huaming Equipment are also highlighted for their growth potential and strategic initiatives, with target prices set at 38.24 yuan and 29.5 yuan respectively [10][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and market expansion for companies like Sanqi Interactive Entertainment and China Jushi, which are expected to benefit from new game launches and incentive plans [8][9]

Core Insights - A new global "power shortage cycle" is emerging, driven by aging power grids in Western countries and a surge in electricity consumption due to AI, leading to a widening supply-demand gap in power equipment [1] - China is positioned as a key solution provider in this cycle, leveraging its advantages in supply, manufacturing, and cost [2] Group 1: Global Power Shortage Cycle - The rapid development of AI in the U.S. exacerbates the "power shortage" phenomenon, resulting in significant electricity price increases and shifting market focus towards the broader "power-related AI" sector [1] - Historical trends indicate that global power shortage phases are typically accompanied by increased investment in power and grid infrastructure, as well as an expansion in the export share of manufacturing powerhouses [1] - The aging of power grids in Europe and the U.S. is critical, with over 50% of transmission lines in service for more than 20 years, and a projected additional power demand of 89GW from data centers in the U.S. between 2025 and 2028 [1] Group 2: China's Role and Advantages - China has a significant surplus in electricity supply relative to economic growth, providing ample opportunity for energy export through related commodity trade [2] - The transition from "selling equipment" to "selling systems" highlights China's manufacturing advantages, as the global power shortage reflects a systemic deficiency rather than just a lack of power plants [2] - China controls 55% of global refined copper and 60% of electrolytic aluminum capacity, with lower production costs compared to overseas, creating a closed loop of "power shortage-price increase-profit return to China" [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Domestic power equipment companies that actively expand into overseas markets, particularly in Europe and the U.S., are poised for significant growth opportunities, with recommendations for companies involved in transformers and smart grid solutions [3] - The rise in physical consumption due to power system construction suggests a focus on upstream resources like copper and aluminum [4] - Related materials in high demand due to increased downstream renewable energy needs include separators, lithium iron phosphate anodes and cathodes, and lithium hexafluorophosphate [4]

Group 1: Company Overview and Market Position - Huaming Power Equipment Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in the transformer sector, focusing on products applicable to 35kV and above transformers [3][39]. - The company has a high market share in domestic sales volume, but its sales revenue share is lower due to a significant presence of imported products in high-end markets [38]. - The company has seen an increase in overseas revenue, primarily due to a low base in previous years, but this growth is not expected to be sustainable in the long term [3][4]. Group 2: Overseas Market Dynamics - The company has limited channels and understanding of overseas markets, but recent growth has led to increased confidence in international expansion [4]. - Key regions contributing to overseas growth include Europe, Southeast Asia, and South America, with multiple countries contributing to overall revenue growth [5][6]. - The U.S. market is a significant focus due to high demand for power equipment driven by energy transition and infrastructure upgrades, but rapid progress is challenging [11]. Group 3: Product and Revenue Insights - The company’s product demand is closely tied to large infrastructure projects, making it sensitive to macroeconomic factors [40]. - The average price of products has increased due to a shift in product structure and a higher proportion of overseas revenue [18]. - The company has been focusing on improving production efficiency and reducing fluctuations in financial performance by exiting engineering business [29][34]. Group 4: Challenges and Strategic Considerations - Key challenges include ensuring product reliability across different international standards, talent acquisition in manufacturing, and brand building in new markets [44]. - The company aims to maintain a cash dividend of no less than 60% of distributable profits as part of its shareholder return plan [45]. - Future growth targets are ambitious, considering the long growth cycle experienced in recent years [46].

Core Insights - The company primarily focuses on transformer tap changers, which are typically used in transformers rated at 35kV and above [2] - The demand for the company's products in the wind power sector is limited, as they are only required in the booster stations of wind power generation projects [2] Company Overview - The main business of the company is transformer tap changers [2] - The application of the company's products is primarily in high-voltage transformers [2] Industry Context - The annual demand for the company's products in the wind power sector is relatively small [2]

Group 1 - The company primarily focuses on transformer tap changers, typically used for transformers rated at 35kV and above [2] - In the wind power sector, the company's products may be utilized in the booster stations of wind power generation projects, but the annual demand is relatively limited [2]

Group 1 - The stock price of Huaming Equipment is reported at 19.50 yuan, down 0.10 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 2.09 billion yuan [1] - The company operates in the electric equipment industry, focusing on the research and manufacturing of transformer tap changers, with applications in power grid construction and industrial automation, particularly in ultra-high voltage transmission [1] - From August 7 to 20, Huaming Equipment was the most researched A-share company by foreign institutions, receiving attention from 82 overseas institutions, surpassing the second-ranked Desay SV's 18 institutions [1] Group 2 - Data on capital flow indicates a net outflow of 6.27 million yuan on that day, accounting for 0.04% of the circulating market value [1] - Over the past five trading days, there has been a cumulative net inflow of 6.13 million yuan, also representing 0.04% of the circulating market value [1]