Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly in the short - term, with intraday and reference views of "weakly running" and medium - term views of "sideways" [1][5][7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract slightly closed down 0.67% to 14,785 yuan/ton [5] - **Core Logic**: Although macro factors have improved and boosted confidence in the rubber market, the new rubber supply is expected to increase as domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas enter the new tapping season and new rubber output gradually recovers. At the same time, the tire industry's procurement demand is expected to increase. Under the divergence of long and short factors, the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a weakly sideways trend on Friday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Wednesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract slightly closed down 0.87% to 12,010 yuan/ton [7] - **Core Logic**: Although Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress, the approaching US debt crisis in June may trigger a new round of negative macro impacts. Additionally, OPEC+ is increasing production, and the synthetic rubber supply is expected to rise. Under the suppression of bearish industrial factors, the synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract may maintain a weakly sideways trend on Friday [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 and synthetic rubber futures contract 2507 are expected to run strongly on May 14, 2025, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being weakly volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Situation**: On the night of Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed up 1.63% to 15,240 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: Domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas will enter a new round of tapping seasons, and new rubber supply will gradually increase. After the May Day holiday, the tire industry's start - up rate has rebounded, and procurement demand is expected to strengthen. However, due to the lack of continuous improvement in the supply - demand structure and a slight increase in rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, it is difficult to support the continuous strengthening of post - holiday rubber prices. The progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations has boosted market risk appetite [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Situation**: On the night of Tuesday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract rebounded 3.17% to 12,515 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: During the May Day holiday, OPEC+ agreed to continue the accelerated production increase in June, bringing new supply pressure to the crude oil market. After the digestion of bearish sentiment, oil prices stabilized. Supported by cost factors and the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations, market risk appetite has been boosted [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-05-13 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 宏观情绪改善，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 宏观情绪改善，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：国内外天胶产区将陆续进入新一轮割胶旺季，原料产出稳步增长，新胶供应将逐渐回升。 同时下游轮胎行业经历五一长假以后，开工率转入阶段性回升状态，采购需求有望增强。由于供需 结构缺乏持续改 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract and synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract are expected to run strongly on May 9, 2025, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly and a medium - term view of oscillating weakly [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Situation**: On the night of Thursday, the 2509 contract of Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.07% to 14,705 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Friday [5]. - **Core Logic**: Domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas will enter a new round of tapping seasons, and new rubber supply will gradually increase. After the May Day holiday, the downstream tire industry's operating rate has rebounded, and procurement demand is expected to increase. However, due to the lack of continuous improvement in the supply - demand structure and a slight increase in rubber inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, it is difficult to support the continuous strengthening of post - holiday rubber prices. After the bearish sentiment is digested, the futures price shows a stabilizing trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Situation**: On the night of Thursday, the 2507 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and strong trend, with the futures price rising 1.41% to 11,510 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Friday [7]. - **Core Logic**: During the May Day holiday, OPEC + oil - producing countries agreed to continue to accelerate production in June, bringing new supply pressure to the crude oil market. After the bearish sentiment in the crude oil market is digested, the oil price shows an oscillating and stabilizing trend, driving the synthetic rubber futures price to rise [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an intraday view of being oscillating and strong, and a medium - term view of being oscillating and weak [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term is oscillating, medium - term is oscillating and weak, and intraday is oscillating and strong, with a reference view of running strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas will enter a new round of tapping seasons, increasing raw material output and new rubber supply. After the May Day holiday, the downstream tire industry's operating rate is in a stage of recovery, and procurement demand is expected to increase. During the holiday, the Japanese rubber futures rose 1.27%, but international oil prices tumbled. With the recovery of domestic tire enterprises' operating rates after the holiday, demand factors strengthened, boosting the rubber price to stabilize and rebound. On Tuesday night, the Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed slightly up 0.68% to 14,910 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Wednesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term is oscillating, medium - term is oscillating and weak, and intraday is oscillating and strong, with a reference view of running strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: During the May Day holiday, OPEC+ oil - producing countries agreed to continue to accelerate production increase in June, bringing new supply pressure to the crude oil market. After the release of bearish sentiment on the first day after the holiday, international crude oil futures prices rebounded on Tuesday night, driving the synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract to rise slightly. The futures price rose 1.11% to 11,435 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and stable trend on Wednesday [7].