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宝城期货原油早报-20250605
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 02:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The core view is that the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being mainly oscillatory and intraday showing a tendency of weak oscillation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Time - Cycle Viewpoints - The short - term view of crude oil 2507 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1]. 3.2 Price and Driving Logic - As the US debt crisis approaches in June, the "gray rhino" effect may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the pace of production increase, with an additional increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July. It is speculated that the remaining voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day may be completely cancelled by the end of October. After the geopolitical factors are digested, the domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices have begun to give back premiums [5]. - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract showed a weakly oscillatory trend, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.07% to 462.6 yuan per barrel. It is expected that the oil price on Thursday may maintain a weakly oscillatory trend [5]. 3.3 Fluctuation Criteria - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The end price is the closing price of the day's daytime session. A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is weakly oscillatory, an increase of 0 - 1% is strongly oscillatory, and an increase of more than 1% is a rise. The terms "strongly/weakly oscillatory" only apply to intraday views [2][3][4].
宝城期货原油早报:地缘风险加大,原油震荡偏强-20250604
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 01:53
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2507 will continue to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend on Wednesday [1][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Trends and Views - In the short - term (within a week), the crude oil 2507 contract is expected to be volatile; in the medium - term (two weeks to a month), it will also be volatile; and intraday, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with an overall view of a slightly stronger operation [1] Core Logic - As the US debt crisis approaches in June, the "gray rhino" effect may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the production increase rhythm, with an additional increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July. It is speculated that the remaining voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day may be completely cancelled by the end of October. Due to the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and increased geopolitical risks, international crude oil futures prices have risen slightly [5]
宝城期货原油早报-20250603
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 05:20
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being volatile, volatile, and volatile but on the stronger side respectively [1][5]. - The main reasons are the increasing geopolitical risks, the approaching US debt crisis in June which may trigger a new round of macro negative impacts, and OPEC+ accelerating the production increase rhythm. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Price and Trend - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of crude oil 2507 are volatile, volatile, and volatile but on the stronger side respectively, with a reference view of strong operation [1]. Driving Logic - With the approaching of the US debt crisis in June, the "gray rhino" effect may trigger a new round of macro negative impacts [5]. - OPEC+ is accelerating the production increase rhythm, with a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July. It may completely cancel the remaining 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts by the end of October [5]. - Due to the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and increasing geopolitical risks, international crude oil futures prices rose slightly during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, so the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger after the holiday [5].
宝城期货原油早报:偏空因素占优,原油震荡偏弱-20250529
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 01:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of the crude oil 2507 contract are mainly volatile, with an intraday weak - volatile trend, and the overall reference view is a weak operation [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract slightly rose 0.84% to 457.4 yuan/barrel [5] 3.2 Core Logic - As the US debt crisis approaches in June, the "gray rhino" effect may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the pace of production increase, and the market generally expects an additional increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July. Based on the current monthly increase rate, it may completely cancel the remaining 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts by the end of October, increasing supply pressure [5]
宝城期货橡胶早报-20250523
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 02:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly in the short - term, with intraday and reference views of "weakly running" and medium - term views of "sideways" [1][5][7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract slightly closed down 0.67% to 14,785 yuan/ton [5] - **Core Logic**: Although macro factors have improved and boosted confidence in the rubber market, the new rubber supply is expected to increase as domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas enter the new tapping season and new rubber output gradually recovers. At the same time, the tire industry's procurement demand is expected to increase. Under the divergence of long and short factors, the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a weakly sideways trend on Friday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Wednesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract slightly closed down 0.87% to 12,010 yuan/ton [7] - **Core Logic**: Although Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress, the approaching US debt crisis in June may trigger a new round of negative macro impacts. Additionally, OPEC+ is increasing production, and the synthetic rubber supply is expected to rise. Under the suppression of bearish industrial factors, the synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract may maintain a weakly sideways trend on Friday [7]