Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views all being "oscillating and bullish" [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Change**: On Wednesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillating consolidation trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.43% to 14,950 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: Recent trade agreements between the US and Japan, upcoming China - US economic and trade meetings from July 27th to 30th in Sweden, and rumors of a tariff agreement between Europe and the US have improved macro factors. This has led to a significant increase in the risk appetite of the commodity market. Although the domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season with large supply pressure, the overall situation is covered by a bullish atmosphere. It is expected that on Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and bullish trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Change**: On Wednesday night, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillating consolidation trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.58% to 11,930 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, the improvement of macro factors has led to an increase in the risk appetite of the commodity market. Supported by a bullish atmosphere, it is expected that on Thursday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and bullish trend [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong pattern. The short - term and intraday views are "oscillating strongly", while the medium - term view is "oscillating" [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Change**: On the night of last Friday, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with the futures price slightly closing down 0.65% to 13,860 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: The bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities by the US over the weekend and Iran's vow to attack US military bases in the Middle East increased geopolitical risks, leading to a rise in the premium of energy - chemical commodities. The resonance factor supported the Shanghai rubber futures to maintain a relatively strong pattern. The unfavorable impact of the weak supply - demand structure of the rubber market itself was covered by the bullish atmosphere. It is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures may maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Change**: On the night of last Friday, the 2508 contract of synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with the futures price slightly closing down 1.12% to 11,460 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: The bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities by the US over the weekend and Iran's vow to attack US military bases in the Middle East increased geopolitical risks, leading to a rise in the premium of energy - chemical commodities. The cost factor and resonance factor supported the synthetic rubber futures to maintain a relatively strong pattern. The unfavorable impact of the weak supply - demand structure of synthetic rubber itself was covered by the bullish atmosphere. It is expected that the 2508 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures may maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Monday [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and intraday views being oscillating and strong, and medium - term views being oscillating [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Thursday night, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillating and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.43% to 14,070 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: Since this week, the conflict between Iran and Israel has continued to escalate, and their missile air - strike targets have shifted to energy facilities, leading to an increase in the premium of energy - chemical commodities. Against the background of the collective strength of energy - chemical sector commodities, resonance factors support Shanghai rubber futures to maintain a strong pattern. Currently, the unfavorable impact of the weak supply - demand structure of the rubber market itself is covered by the bullish atmosphere [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Thursday night, the 2508 contract of synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and strong trend, with the futures price rising 1.38% to 11,765 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: Since this week, the conflict between Iran and Israel has continued to escalate, and their missile air - strike targets have shifted to energy facilities, resulting in an increase in the premium of energy - chemical commodities. Against the background of the collective strength of crude oil futures and energy - chemical sector commodities, cost factors combined with resonance factors support synthetic rubber futures to maintain a strong pattern. Currently, the unfavorable impact of the weak supply - demand structure of synthetic rubber itself is covered by the bullish atmosphere [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly in the short - term, with intraday and reference views of "weakly running" and medium - term views of "sideways" [1][5][7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract slightly closed down 0.67% to 14,785 yuan/ton [5] - **Core Logic**: Although macro factors have improved and boosted confidence in the rubber market, the new rubber supply is expected to increase as domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas enter the new tapping season and new rubber output gradually recovers. At the same time, the tire industry's procurement demand is expected to increase. Under the divergence of long and short factors, the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a weakly sideways trend on Friday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Wednesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract slightly closed down 0.87% to 12,010 yuan/ton [7] - **Core Logic**: Although Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress, the approaching US debt crisis in June may trigger a new round of negative macro impacts. Additionally, OPEC+ is increasing production, and the synthetic rubber supply is expected to rise. Under the suppression of bearish industrial factors, the synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract may maintain a weakly sideways trend on Friday [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 and synthetic rubber futures contract 2507 are expected to run strongly on May 14, 2025, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being weakly volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Situation**: On the night of Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed up 1.63% to 15,240 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: Domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas will enter a new round of tapping seasons, and new rubber supply will gradually increase. After the May Day holiday, the tire industry's start - up rate has rebounded, and procurement demand is expected to strengthen. However, due to the lack of continuous improvement in the supply - demand structure and a slight increase in rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, it is difficult to support the continuous strengthening of post - holiday rubber prices. The progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations has boosted market risk appetite [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Situation**: On the night of Tuesday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract rebounded 3.17% to 12,515 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: During the May Day holiday, OPEC+ agreed to continue the accelerated production increase in June, bringing new supply pressure to the crude oil market. After the digestion of bearish sentiment, oil prices stabilized. Supported by cost factors and the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations, market risk appetite has been boosted [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-05-13 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 宏观情绪改善，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 宏观情绪改善，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：国内外天胶产区将陆续进入新一轮割胶旺季，原料产出稳步增长，新胶供应将逐渐回升。 同时下游轮胎行业经历五一长假以后，开工率转入阶段性回升状态，采购需求有望增强。由于供需 结构缺乏持续改 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract and synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract are expected to run strongly on May 9, 2025, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly and a medium - term view of oscillating weakly [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Situation**: On the night of Thursday, the 2509 contract of Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.07% to 14,705 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Friday [5]. - **Core Logic**: Domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas will enter a new round of tapping seasons, and new rubber supply will gradually increase. After the May Day holiday, the downstream tire industry's operating rate has rebounded, and procurement demand is expected to increase. However, due to the lack of continuous improvement in the supply - demand structure and a slight increase in rubber inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, it is difficult to support the continuous strengthening of post - holiday rubber prices. After the bearish sentiment is digested, the futures price shows a stabilizing trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Situation**: On the night of Thursday, the 2507 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and strong trend, with the futures price rising 1.41% to 11,510 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Friday [7]. - **Core Logic**: During the May Day holiday, OPEC + oil - producing countries agreed to continue to accelerate production in June, bringing new supply pressure to the crude oil market. After the bearish sentiment in the crude oil market is digested, the oil price shows an oscillating and stabilizing trend, driving the synthetic rubber futures price to rise [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an intraday view of being oscillating and strong, and a medium - term view of being oscillating and weak [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term is oscillating, medium - term is oscillating and weak, and intraday is oscillating and strong, with a reference view of running strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas will enter a new round of tapping seasons, increasing raw material output and new rubber supply. After the May Day holiday, the downstream tire industry's operating rate is in a stage of recovery, and procurement demand is expected to increase. During the holiday, the Japanese rubber futures rose 1.27%, but international oil prices tumbled. With the recovery of domestic tire enterprises' operating rates after the holiday, demand factors strengthened, boosting the rubber price to stabilize and rebound. On Tuesday night, the Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed slightly up 0.68% to 14,910 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Wednesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term is oscillating, medium - term is oscillating and weak, and intraday is oscillating and strong, with a reference view of running strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: During the May Day holiday, OPEC+ oil - producing countries agreed to continue to accelerate production increase in June, bringing new supply pressure to the crude oil market. After the release of bearish sentiment on the first day after the holiday, international crude oil futures prices rebounded on Tuesday night, driving the synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract to rise slightly. The futures price rose 1.11% to 11,435 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and stable trend on Wednesday [7].

Core Insights - The report indicates a bearish outlook for both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) in the short and medium term, with expectations of weak performance in the market [5][7]. Summary by Sections Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Short-term and medium-term views are both characterized as "oscillating weak," with a reference viewpoint of weak operation [5]. - The core logic suggests that recent macroeconomic sentiment has improved, helping the market to digest previous negative impacts from the US tariff situation. However, the upcoming rubber tapping season in Southeast Asia and domestic regions like Yunnan and Hainan is expected to increase supply pressure [5]. - The domestic automotive market showed optimistic production and sales data for March, indicating significant year-on-year and month-on-month growth, which could boost rubber demand expectations [5]. - Despite the positive automotive data, tire manufacturers are facing reduced operating rates as the May Day holiday approaches, leading to weakened demand expectations [5]. - On Thursday night, the Shanghai rubber futures contract (2509) closed down 0.41% at 14,595 CNY/ton, with expectations of continued weak oscillation on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Similar to Shanghai rubber, the short-term and medium-term views for synthetic rubber are also "oscillating weak," with a reference viewpoint of weak operation [7]. - The report notes that the macroeconomic sentiment has improved, allowing the market to absorb the adverse effects of the US tariff situation. The domestic automotive market's March production and sales data also showed significant growth [7]. - However, tire manufacturers are expected to reduce their operating rates as the May Day holiday approaches, leading to diminished demand expectations [7]. - The inventory reduction pace for synthetic rubber remains slow, contributing to ongoing supply pressure [7]. - On Thursday night, the synthetic rubber futures contract (2506) fell sharply by 2.08% to 10,840 CNY/ton, with expectations of continued weak oscillation on Friday [7].