Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment for expected production increases in India and Thailand's 25/26 sugar seasons is high, suppressing sugar prices. Brazil's overall sugarcane pressing situation is poor due to low precipitation, leading to a lower ATR value and an increased sugar - ethanol ratio. China's out - of - quota sugar import window has been fluctuating, resulting in a significant increase in July's import volume and an expected high volume in August [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the sugar market. Positive factors include strong domestic sugar sales in some regions, sufficient end - of - season sugar inventory in India for domestic consumption, suspension of imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder, poor production in Brazil's 25/26 season, and potential increased demand from the return of sugar - containing beverages in the US. Negative factors include increased sugar production in some regions, expected production growth in Brazil and Thailand, early monsoons in India, large import volumes in July and expected high volumes in August, and poor sales in some regions in July [5][8]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for sugar is predicted to be between 5600 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.40% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5800 - 5850 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell call options (SR511C5800) at 30 - 40 with a 25% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5650 - 5700 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SR511P5500) at 20 - 30 with a 75% hedging ratio [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - Market expectations of increased production in India and Thailand's 25/26 seasons suppress sugar prices. Brazil's poor pressing situation due to low precipitation leads to low ATR values, and China's fluctuating import window causes large import volumes [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - As of the end of July, sugar sales in Guangxi and Yunnan increased year - on - year, with higher sales rates and lower industrial inventory in some cases. India's 2024/25 end - of - season sugar inventory is sufficient for domestic consumption from October to November 2025. China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder. Brazil's 25/26 season production is poor, and there are potential demand increases from the return of sugar - containing beverages in the US [5][6][8]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - In the 2024/25 season, sugar production increased in some regions. Analysts expect production growth in Brazil's 25/26 season and Thailand's 24/25 season. India's early monsoons may lead to a production recovery. July's import volume is large, and sales in some regions in July were poor [8][9]. 3.5 Price Data - **Base Price Changes**: On August 21, 2025, the base prices of sugar in different regions and contracts showed various daily and weekly changes [10]. - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 22, 2025, the closing prices of sugar futures contracts had different daily and weekly changes, and there were also changes in the spreads between different contracts [11]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On August 22, 2025, sugar spot prices in different regions and the regional price spreads had specific daily and weekly changes [12]. - **Sugar Import Price Changes**: On August 22, 2025, the quota - in and quota - out import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar had daily and weekly changes, as well as the price spreads compared to domestic prices [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The market has high expectations for increased sugar production in India and Thailand during the 25/26 sugar season, which suppresses sugar prices. Brazil's overall production progress is lower than the historical average, causing concerns about potential production cuts and leading to fluctuations in raw sugar prices. However, data from early July shows an acceleration in production progress and a significant increase in the sugar - to - ethanol ratio. In China, the opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports has strengthened import expectations, causing futures prices to quickly decline to close the profit window [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5600 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.40% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 2.2% [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, it is recommended to short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5800 - 5850. Also, selling call options (SR511C5800) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 can reduce costs and lock in the selling price of spot sugar [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5650 - 5700. Selling put options (SR511P5500) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 40 - 50 can reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price of spot sugar [3]. Core Contradictions - Market expectations of increased production in India and Thailand during the 25/26 sugar season suppress sugar prices. Brazil's slower - than - usual production progress and subsequent acceleration, along with changes in the sugar - to - ethanol ratio, affect raw sugar prices. The opening of the out - of - quota import profit window in China leads to a decline in futures prices [4]. Bullish Factors - As of the end of July, cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi reached 549.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.66 million tons, with a sales - to - production ratio of 85.01%, a 2.51 - percentage - point increase. Industrial inventory was 96.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.3 million tons. In Yunnan, cumulative sugar sales reached 195.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.62 million tons, with a sales - to - production ratio of 80.68%, a 0.7% increase [5]. - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India (NFCSF) expects the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 sugar season to be between 480 - 500 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5]. - From the beginning of the 2025/26 sugar season to the first half of July, the cumulative cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region was 256.14 billion tons, a 9.61% year - on - year decrease. The sugar - to - ethanol ratio was 51.58%, a 2.69 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year [6]. - In June, the import volume of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons [6]. - Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [6]. - Trump stated that Coca - Cola has agreed to use sugar as a beverage additive in the US again, and PepsiCo is also willing to launch sugar - containing cola if there is consumer demand [7]. Bearish Factors - During the 2024/25 sugar season in Guangxi, the cumulative cane crushing volume was 485.954 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 258.47 billion tons, while the mixed - sugar production was 646.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.36 million tons, with a sugar production rate of 13.30%, a 1.22 - percentage - point increase [8]. - Analysis firm JOB predicts a 5% increase in Brazil's sugar production to 46 million tons during the 25/26 sugar season [8]. - Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season is expected to reach 10.39 million tons [8]. - India's monsoon has arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual. The chairman of the federation expects a strong recovery in sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar season, with an estimated output of about 35 million tons [8]. - In June, China's sugar imports were 424,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 397,000 tons, and the out - of - quota import profit window has opened [9]. - In the first half of July, the cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region was 49.823 billion tons, a 14.77% year - on - year increase, and sugar production was 3.406 million tons, a 15.07% year - on - year increase [9]. - In July, Guangxi's single - month sugar sales were 355,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 217,800 tons, and Yunnan's industrial inventory was 467,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 60,600 tons [9]. Price and Spread Information - **Base - difference Changes**: On August 14, 2025, the base - difference between Nanning and SR01 was 321, with a daily increase of 8 and a weekly decrease of 64. The base - difference between Kunming and SR01 was 201, with a daily increase of 3 and a weekly decrease of 44 [10]. - **Futures Price and Spread**: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5664, with a daily increase of 0.09% and a weekly increase of 1.63%. The spread between SR01 and SR05 was 40, with a daily decrease of 11 and a weekly decrease of 2 [10]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: On August 15, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5980, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 30. The price difference between Nanning and Liuzhou was - 20, with no daily or weekly change [11]. - **Sugar Import Price Changes**: On August 15, 2025, the in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4561, with a daily increase of 9 and a weekly increase of 195. The out - of - quota import price was 5796, with a daily increase of 10 and a weekly increase of 253 [12].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has high expectations for increased production in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season in India and Thailand, which suppresses sugar prices. However, due to the slightly slow production progress in Brazil currently and a high sugar - ethanol ratio, the expectation of a decline in Brazil's new - season production in the overseas market is continuously increasing, causing price fluctuations after a sharp drop in the overseas market. The domestic market is slightly stronger with the opening of the out - of - quota profit window, but the rebound strength may be limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5700 - 5900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.94% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.1% [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5850 - 5900 with a 25% hedging ratio. They can also sell call options (SR509C6000) at 30 - 40 with a 50% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5750 - 5800 with a 50% hedging ratio. They can sell put options (SR509P5700) at 10 - 15 with a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot sugar purchase price [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The high expectation of increased production in India and Thailand in the 25/26 season suppresses sugar prices, while the potential decline in Brazil's production in the new season causes price fluctuations in the overseas market. The domestic market is slightly stronger but with limited rebound strength [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Sales and Inventory in Guangxi**: As of the end of June, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 514.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61.44 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 79.51%, a year - on - year increase of 6.29 percentage points. In June, single - month sugar sales were 49.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.73 million tons. Industrial inventory was 132.44 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.08 million tons [5]. - **Indian Sugar Inventory**: The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) in India expects the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season to be between 4.8 - 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic sugar consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - **Import Restrictions**: China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5]. - **Brazilian Production**: As of the first half of May in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.466 million tons (20.24%); the cumulative sugar production was 3.989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 million tons (22.68%) [5]. - **Syrup and Premixed Powder Imports**: In June, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons [6]. - **Brazilian Biofuel Policy**: Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [6]. - **Coca - Cola and Pepsi - Cola**: Coca - Cola plans to re - use sugar as a beverage additive in the US and launch new sugar - containing cola products, and Pepsi - Cola may follow suit [8]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Guangxi Sugar Production**: In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in Guangxi was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons; the mixed sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,600 tons; the sugar production rate was 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points [8]. - **Brazilian Sugar Production Forecast**: Analysis agency JOB expects Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season to increase by 5% to 46 million tons [8]. - **Thai Sugar Production**: Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 season is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [8]. - **Indian Sugar Production Forecast**: Due to favorable monsoon conditions and an increase in the minimum cane purchase price, the sugar production in India's 2025/26 season is expected to strongly recover to about 35 million tons [8]. - **Sugar Imports**: In June, the sugar import volume was 424,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 397,000 tons, and the out - of - quota import profit window has opened [8]. 3.5 Price Data - **Sugar Basis**: On July 22, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 397, with a daily increase of 7 and a weekly decrease of 28; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was 267, with a daily increase of 17 and a weekly decrease of 3 [9]. - **Sugar Futures Prices**: On July 23, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5656, with a daily increase of 0.05% and a weekly increase of 0.35%; the closing price of SR09 was 5834, with a daily increase of 0.19% and a weekly increase of 0.45% [9]. - **Sugar Spot Prices**: On July 23, 2025, the price of Nanning sugar was 6050, with no daily or weekly change; the price of Kunming sugar was 5920, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 15 [10]. - **Sugar Import Prices**: On July 23, 2025, the in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4482, with a daily decrease of 101 and a weekly increase of 68; the out - of - quota import price was 5693, with a daily decrease of 133 and a weekly increase of 88 [11].