申万宏源发布研报称，可重复使用火箭是未来商业运载火箭技术发展主要方向之一，将逐渐成为国际航 天发射市场的主力。我国商业运载发展加速推进，政策支持推动我国商业航天进入高速发展期，在固 体、液体火箭发动机方面均有所突破。随着技术的持续突破、政策不断落地，国内商业航天发展 （000547）进程将不断加速，坚定看好火箭行业全产业链投资机会。 全球商业运载火箭竞争激烈，我国技术发展加速推进 全球商业航天企业分布广泛，各企业技术及业务布局侧重不同。美国凭借猎鹰9号、格伦1号运载火箭的 可复用技术大幅降低发射成本，处于行业领先地位。我国商业运载发展加速推进，政策支持推动我国商 业航天进入高速发展期，在固体、液体火箭发动机方面均有所突破，未来将加快可重复使用火箭技术突 破，增设商业航天发射场，提高商业运载火箭发射能力。 星座建设需求牵引，打开运载火箭千亿空间 国内卫星星座发射计划加速部署，申请低轨卫星数量总数已达5.13万颗，运载火箭发射次数有望快速增 长，预计至2030E我国运载火箭发射次数将超900次，火箭单次发射费用约为6975万美元，因此预计到 2030E我国运载火箭市场空间达632亿美元。 运载火箭产业链拆分 申万 ...

Core Insights - The discussion between Elon Musk and Jensen Huang at the US-Saudi Investment Forum highlighted a significant collaboration in AI infrastructure, specifically the construction of a 500 MW AI data center in the desert, involving Musk's xAI, Nvidia, and the Saudi AI company Humane [1][29]. Group 1: Innovation and AI Development - Musk emphasized that his focus is on creation rather than disruption, citing SpaceX's reusable rockets as an example of innovation that did not previously exist [3][7]. - The conversation pointed out that humanoid robots are expected to become the largest industry ever, surpassing smartphones, as demand for personal robots will be high [3][11]. - Huang noted that AI is becoming a foundational infrastructure, transforming industries and requiring global AI factories to generate unique content in real-time [12][13]. Group 2: Economic and Employment Implications - Musk argued that AI and humanoid robots could eliminate poverty, suggesting that the only way to achieve widespread wealth is through these technologies [3][11]. - The future of work is predicted to become optional, akin to a hobby, where individuals can choose to work if they desire [15][17]. - Huang highlighted that AI will increase productivity, leading to more tasks and potentially making people busier rather than causing job losses [21][22]. Group 3: Space and AI - Musk stated that AI in space is inevitable, with solar-powered AI satellites expected to become the most cost-effective method for AI computation within five years [5][32]. - The discussion included the potential for space to provide vast energy resources, which would be essential for scaling AI computations beyond what is feasible on Earth [34][35]. Group 4: Market Trends and AI Evolution - Huang described a fundamental shift from general computing to accelerated computing, with a significant decrease in the use of CPUs in favor of GPUs for high-performance tasks [37][38]. - The transition to generative AI is seen as a major opportunity, with the current landscape moving towards intelligent agents that leverage accelerated computing resources [38].

Core Viewpoint - The commercial space industry is recognized as a trillion-dollar market, with significant developments and investments, yet it still faces challenges in achieving profitability and stability [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Development - The commercial space sector has seen the emergence of companies aiming for initial public offerings, with notable advancements in satellite internet and launch capabilities [2][3]. - The "Starlink" project has accelerated the pace of satellite launches, with a record of 38 satellites launched in a short period [2]. - The industry has experienced a shift in focus from "hard technology" to more immediate trends like smart driving, indicating a potential lack of excitement in commercial space developments [3]. Group 2: Investment Landscape - Significant funding has been raised in the commercial space sector, with companies like Xinghe Dynamics securing a record 2.4 billion in Series D financing [2]. - The overall financing scale for the industry exceeded 20 billion last year, marking a new high and indicating growing investor interest [21]. - The presence of numerous unicorns in the commercial space sector suggests a maturing investment landscape [21]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The industry is witnessing breakthroughs in rocket technology, with 12 successful launches by private companies in 2023 [22]. - The focus on reusable rocket technology is critical for reducing launch costs, with several companies making progress in this area [22][30]. - The satellite internet initiative is gaining momentum, with significant projects like "Starlink" and "G60" pushing for rapid deployment and operational capabilities [26]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The commercial space sector is increasingly targeting large clients and government contracts, with companies eager to integrate into supply chains [18]. - There is a notable shift towards providing comprehensive industry solutions rather than merely selling satellite data, indicating a more integrated approach to market needs [18][19]. - The industry is expected to undergo consolidation, with weaker players likely to exit the market, reflecting a maturation process [46][47].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the commercial aerospace industry, suggesting it is entering a rapid development phase [2][16]. Core Insights - The new leadership team at Xingwang Group is diverse and is expected to enhance resource assurance and management efficiency, facilitating the construction of the first-generation and enhanced systems [1][4]. - Significant progress has been made in satellite manufacturing and networking, with successful launches of experimental satellites by New Wang Group [1][6]. - The domestic rocket launch technology has improved but still lags behind SpaceX, particularly in reusable rocket technology [1][7]. - The capital market is increasingly supportive of commercial aerospace, with state-owned funds being established to back industry development [1][8][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The commercial aerospace industry is rated positively, with expectations for accelerated growth and development [2][16]. Management and Market Integration - The new management structure at Xingwang Group is expected to improve operational efficiency and drive technological advancements [3][5]. Satellite Manufacturing and Networking - Shanghai Yuanxin has resolved technical issues with its networking satellites, and New Wang Group has successfully launched its first-generation and second-generation experimental satellites [1][6]. Rocket Launch Technology - Domestic rocket launch capabilities are advancing, but there remains a gap compared to international leaders like SpaceX, especially in reusable technology [1][7]. Capital Market Support - Increased support from the capital market is evident, with state-owned investment funds being established to promote commercial aerospace enterprises [1][8]. Policy Changes - Recent government reports emphasize commercial aerospace as a priority, indicating forthcoming supportive policies [9]. Upcoming Goals in Satellite Internet Engineering - The first-generation enhanced networking plan is set to advance, with significant developments expected in the third quarter [10][12]. Key Focus Areas for Investors - Investors should focus on core supporting enterprises in space segment construction, commercial rocket launch sectors, and potential suppliers benefiting from mobile internet system developments [15].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on upstream suppliers that provide core technologies and high barriers to entry, rather than direct investment in launch vehicle companies that face significant market and capital expenditure risks [4][50]. Core Insights - The global aerospace launch market is undergoing a profound and irreversible structural expansion driven by a revolution in cost structures, shifting from a government budget-dominated paradigm to a commercially driven era focused on high launch frequency and cost efficiency [1][7]. - The key catalyst for this transformation is SpaceX's disruptive cost reductions achieved through reusable rocket technology, which has set new price benchmarks and operational expectations for the market [1][7]. - Future launch demand will be supported by three solid pillars: the large-scale deployment of commercial broadband constellations (e.g., Starlink and Kuiper), increasing geopolitical competition and national security needs, and the revival of scientific and deep space exploration missions represented by the Artemis program [1][10]. Industry Background and Market Drivers - The report highlights a significant increase in global orbital launches, with a record of 259 launches expected in 2024, up from 223 in 2023, and a forecast of over 300 launches in 2025 [7][10]. - The transition to a commercial-driven market is exemplified by SpaceX's 138 launches in 2024, which accounted for half of the global market, establishing a new operational rhythm [7][10]. Core Technology Path Analysis - The competition in the launch market is fundamentally a competition of underlying propulsion technologies, converging on the "Methalox + Reusability + Additive Manufacturing" combination [2][13]. - Methalox engines are recognized as the future mainstream path due to their clean combustion characteristics and ability to simplify the reuse process, addressing the carbon buildup issues of traditional kerosene fuels [15][19]. Value Chain and Supply Chain Analysis - The report identifies a shift in value and profit concentration towards upstream suppliers of core technologies and high-barrier components, moving away from midstream assembly integration [3][36]. - The "smile curve" analysis indicates that high-value areas are concentrated at the upstream and downstream ends of the value chain, while midstream assembly faces profit margin pressures [36][37]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Howmet Aerospace, LOAR, VSE Corporation, BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce, Safran, L3Harris Technologies, and Velo3D, which are positioned as key technology enablers in the supply chain [4][50].

Core Viewpoint - Beijing has initiated the application for the 2025 Innovation and High-tech Industry New Momentum Projects, focusing on funding support for key industrial projects in areas such as humanoid robots, reusable rockets, and lidar technology [1] Group 1: Project Focus Areas - The project application emphasizes 25 sub-sectors, including artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, and intelligent connected vehicles [1] - The aim is to select a batch of demonstration-driven key industrial projects for funding and support [1] Group 2: Objectives and Goals - The initiative is designed to promote the development of high-precision and cutting-edge industries in Beijing [1] - It seeks to enhance the development capabilities of advantageous industries and actively layout future industries [1] - The focus is on fostering new momentum for development through the integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation [1]