本次2603向2606合约移仓速度偏慢，2603合约持仓量偏高，或是由于本轮债市修复行情中，参与做多的资金对债 市行情的预期仅为超跌反弹，而非系统性看多，对债市的行情的 如何看待本轮期债移仓行情？ 2/24，国债期货市场演绎移仓行情，T2603合约单日减仓约5.5万手，TL2603单日减仓约1.67万手。 同时，2606合约表现明显强于2603合约，跨期价差进一步收窄。 本次2603向2606合约移仓速度偏慢，2603合约持仓量偏高，或是由于本轮债市修复行情中，参与做多的资金对债 市行情的预期仅为超跌反弹，而非系统性看多，对债市的行情的预期可能以春节假期为分界点，而今年春节偏 晚，进而使得春节假期后2月仅剩的4个交易日可能出现2603合约集中平仓需求。 我们假设2603合约的最终交割率与2025年4次交割的均值相同，不进入交割的机构均在2月底前平仓近月合约，则 估算结果显示在2月25日-27日3个交易日，T2603和TL2603分别需要减仓8.1万手和4.8万手。 进入2月尾声，跨期价差策略窗口接近结束，但单边行情或继续演绎。 建议投资者直接参与做多T2606和TL2606合约。 如何看待本轮期债移仓行情？ ...

Group 1 - The bond market has recently shown signs of structural recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield falling below the critical level of 1.8%, attracting market attention [1] - Multiple macro-financial variables have positively changed, supporting the recovery of the bond market, including a significant drop in short-term liquidity rates and stable insurance fund allocations [2] - The bond market's overall performance has remained stable despite fluctuations in other asset classes, indicating a return to its safe-haven asset characteristics [3] Group 2 - There is a growing divergence in opinions regarding the future downward potential of bond yields, with some institutions believing that current yield levels have already priced in rate cut expectations [4] - The support for bond yields has weakened as they approach the 1.8% mark, with the market's focus shifting to whether policy rates will be adjusted downwards [5] - Despite the upcoming holiday and potential market uncertainties, there remains a demand for holding bonds, although caution is advised due to the volatility and supply pressures expected post-holiday [6]