截至2025年8月29日 11:03，国证粮食产业指数(399365)成分股农产品(000061)上涨9.96%，藏格矿业 (000408)上涨6.00%，云图控股(002539)上涨5.59%，利尔化学(002258)，金龙鱼(300999)等个股跟涨。粮 食ETF(159698)上涨0.94%，最新价报0.97元。 消息面上，2025年全国早稻总产量2851.3万吨（570.3亿斤），比2024年增加33.9万吨（6.8亿斤），增长 1.2%。兴业研究指出，展望行业趋势，我国对种业支持政策仍将持续，并且随着新型生物育种技术商 业化趋于成熟，行业竞争格局或有望进一步优化。建议关注以下两个方面：1）从行业层面来看，优先 关注商品化率高、规模占比大的作物品类的种企，其产品需求受行业周期波动、自然环境影响相对较 小，同时需注意当前行业周期情况；2）行业相对分散，但部分品类头部企业存在优势，与中小企业的 差距较大，优先关注具备一定经营规模，且拥有研发创新竞争能力，以及种质资源、生产管理、销售渠 道优势积累的企业。 数据显示，截至2025年7月31日，国证粮食产业指数(399365)前十大权重股分别为大北农(0023 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the Sino - US tariff game, China has implemented tariff counter - measures, which highlights the importance of food security. The self - controllability of seed sources has become crucial, and the seed industry may receive strong policy support [1][2]. - The Chinese government has issued a plan to accelerate the construction of an agricultural powerhouse, with clear goals for different time points to ensure food supply and promote rural development [3][33]. - The Guozheng Grain Industry Index has investment value. It is more focused on the seed and grain planting fields after revision, with reasonable valuation and better performance than some major indices [4]. - The Penghua Guozheng Grain ETF and its linked funds are good investment vehicles for tracking the Guozheng Grain Industry Index [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Tariff Game Background and New Opportunities for the Grain Industry 3.1.1 China's Tariff Counter - measures in Response to Sino - US Tariff Shocks - On April 2, 2025 (Eastern Time), the US government announced a "reciprocal tariff" policy. China issued a statement on April 5, strongly condemning and opposing it. On April 4, China announced a 34% tariff increase on US - originated goods and took other counter - measures [1][10][11]. 3.1.2 The Significance of Food Security under Tariff Counter - measures - China is a major food importer, and the US is an important source of its agricultural imports. In 2024, China imported 3179 tons of grain from the US, accounting for 20.2% of its total imports, a 1.3 - percentage - point decrease from 2023. The import cost of agricultural products will rise, and domestic seed industry upgrading is expected [2][11][13]. - As of April 11, 2025, there were significant price fluctuations in bulk agricultural products [17]. 3.1.3 Government Support for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Powerhouse - The Chinese government issued the "Plan for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Powerhouse (2024 - 2035)", with clear goals for 2027, 2035, and the middle of this century, and detailed plans for ensuring food security [3][31][33]. 3.2 Investment Value Analysis of the Guozheng Grain Industry Index 3.2.1 Introduction - The Guozheng Grain Industry Index aims to reflect the stock price changes of grain - related listed companies. After revision, it focuses more on the seed and grain planting fields, with semi - annual sample adjustments [36]. 3.2.2 Market Value Distribution and Liquidity - As of April 15, 2025, the index has a diversified market - value distribution. In terms of liquidity, 78.36% of the component stocks' weights are in the top three groups of the past - year average daily trading volume [39][40][42]. 3.2.3 Industry Distribution - As of April 15, 2025, the index is highly concentrated in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and basic chemical industries at the Shenwan primary level, and mainly in the seed, livestock and poultry feed, and grain planting industries at the Shenwan tertiary level [44]. 3.2.4 Top Ten Weighted Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks of the index have a total weight of 52.74%, with a moderate concentration. They are mainly in the core sectors of the grain industry, and have a good profitability level [47]. 3.2.5 Reasonable Valuation - As of April 15, 2025, the index's P/E ratio is 24.17 times and the P/B ratio is 2.02 times, both at relatively low historical levels. The valuation center may rise as the grain industry opportunities approach [49]. 3.2.6 Performance - From November 4, 2009, to April 15, 2025, the total return of the index is 151.08%, with an annualized return of 6.33%. Its performance is better than that of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [51]. 3.3 Fund Products - The Penghua Guozheng Grain Industry ETF, listed on August 18, 2023, is the largest and most liquid ETF product tracking the Guozheng Grain Industry Index. It has three linked funds [5][57].