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策略周报:行业轮动ETF策略周报-20260112
金融街证券· 2026-01-12 07:40
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategy based on industry and theme ETFs was constructed by the Financial Street Securities Research Institute, and the portfolio was updated weekly. From January 5 - 9, 2026, the strategy's cumulative net return was about 8.72%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 5.94%. From October 14, 2024, to January 9, 2026, the strategy's out - of - sample cumulative return was about 41.66%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 15.74% [3] - In the week of January 12, 2026, the model recommended allocating sectors such as aviation equipment, aerospace equipment, and aviation airports. The strategy would add holdings of products like Aerospace ETF, Grain ETF, and Power Grid Equipment ETF, and continue to hold products like Satellite Industry ETF, Tourism ETF, and Communication Equipment ETF [13] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Strategy Construction - The Financial Street Securities Research Institute constructed a strategy portfolio based on industry and theme ETFs, referring to the strategy reports "Strategy Portfolio Report under Industry Rotation: Quantitative Analysis from the Perspective of Industry Style Continuity and Switching" (20241007) and "Research on the Overview and Allocation Methods of the Stock - type ETF Market: Taking the ETF Portfolio Based on the Industry Rotation Strategy as an Example" (20241013) [2] Strategy Update - The strategy updated the holdings of ETFs. Newly added holdings included Aerospace ETF, Grain ETF, and Power Grid Equipment ETF. Continued holdings included Satellite Industry ETF, Tourism ETF, etc. [3][13] Performance Tracking - From January 5 - 9, 2026, the strategy's cumulative net return was about 8.72%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 5.94%. From October 14, 2024, to January 9, 2026, the strategy's out - of - sample cumulative return was about 41.66%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 15.74% [3] Future Recommendations - In the week of January 12 - 16, 2026, the model recommended allocating sectors such as aviation equipment, aerospace equipment, and aviation airports, and recommended products for investment [13]
策略周报:行业轮动ETF策略周报-20251215
金融街证券· 2025-12-15 05:39
Core Insights - The report emphasizes the construction of a strategy portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, leveraging insights from previous strategy reports on industry rotation and ETF market overview [2]. - The strategy has shown a cumulative net return of approximately 1.44% during the period from December 8 to December 12, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 ETF by about 1.53% [3]. - Since October 14, 2024, the strategy has achieved a cumulative return of approximately 26.05%, with an excess return of about 5.03% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [3]. ETF Holdings and Performance - The report lists various ETFs with their respective market values and sector weights, indicating a shift in holdings towards sectors such as batteries, photovoltaic equipment, and automation equipment [3]. - The weekly performance of the ETF portfolio shows an average return of 1.44%, while the CSI 300 ETF had a return of 1.53%, indicating a slight underperformance of the strategy in that week [12]. - The report recommends increasing positions in ETFs related to batteries, photovoltaic equipment, automation equipment, chemical products, and airport sectors for the upcoming week [12].
行业轮动ETF策略周报-20251201
金融街证券· 2025-12-01 06:44
Core Insights - The report emphasizes the construction of a strategy portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, leveraging insights from previous strategy reports on industry rotation and ETF market overview [2][3]. Strategy Update - The strategy has seen a cumulative net return of approximately 4.59% during the period from November 24 to November 28, 2025, with an excess return of about 3.03% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [3][12]. - Since October 14, 2024, the cumulative return of the strategy sample has reached approximately 23.58%, with an excess return of about 4.05% relative to the CSI 300 ETF [3][4]. ETF Holdings and Performance - The report lists various ETFs with their respective market values and holdings, indicating adjustments in positions such as the addition of real estate, grain, petrochemical, chemical, and tourism ETFs, while continuing to hold the electric grid equipment ETF [3][12]. - The weekly performance of the ETF portfolio shows an average return of 4.59%, with specific ETFs like the electric grid equipment ETF maintaining a strong position [3][12]. Recommended Sectors and Products - For the upcoming week, the strategy recommends increasing holdings in sectors such as real estate development, agriculture, refining and trading, and tourism, while continuing to hold the electric grid equipment ETF [12].
从微观出发的风格轮动月度跟踪-20251201
Soochow Securities· 2025-12-01 06:35
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Style Rotation Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model is built from basic style factors such as valuation, market capitalization, volatility, and momentum. It incorporates a style timing and scoring system, leveraging micro-level features and machine learning techniques to optimize style selection and rotation[4][9]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. Start with 80 fundamental micro factors as raw features, categorized based on the proprietary multi-factor system of Dongwu Securities[9]. 2. Construct 640 micro-level features from these factors[4][9]. 3. Replace the absolute proportion division of style factors with commonly used indices as style stock pools, creating new style returns as labels[4][9]. 4. Use a rolling training process with a Random Forest model to avoid overfitting, select optimal features, and generate style recommendations[4][9]. 5. Combine style timing results and scoring outcomes to build a monthly frequency style rotation framework[4][9]. **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively integrates micro-level features and machine learning to enhance style rotation performance, mitigating overfitting risks[4][9]. Model Backtesting Results - **Style Rotation Model**: - Annualized Return: 16.52% - Annualized Volatility: 20.46% - IR: 0.81 - Monthly Win Rate: 57.01% - Maximum Drawdown: 25.68% - Excess Annualized Return (Hedged against Benchmark): 11.04% - Excess Annualized Volatility (Hedged against Benchmark): 11.08% - Excess IR (Hedged against Benchmark): 1.00 - Excess Monthly Win Rate (Hedged against Benchmark): 55.14% - Maximum Drawdown (Hedged against Benchmark): 9.00%[4][10][11]
行业轮动ETF策略周报-20250922
金融街证券· 2025-09-22 09:21
Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strategy based on industry rotation and thematic ETFs, recommending sectors such as agriculture, film and cinema, and aerospace equipment for the upcoming week [2][3]. - The strategy has shown a cumulative net return of approximately -0.21% for the period from September 15 to September 19, 2025, with an excess return of about 0.16% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [3][11]. - Since October 14, 2024, the strategy has achieved a cumulative return of approximately 24.91%, outperforming the CSI 300 ETF by about 6.36% [3]. Strategy Update - For the week of September 22, 2025, the model recommends increasing positions in the following ETFs: Grain ETF, Film ETF, Industrial Mother Machine ETF, and Oil & Gas ETF, while continuing to hold Aerospace ETF and Green Electricity ETF [2][10]. - The report includes specific ETFs and their respective weights, indicating a focus on sectors like agriculture (46.77% in Grain ETF) and film (45.35% in Film ETF) [10]. Performance Tracking - The report details the performance of various ETFs over the past week, highlighting that the average return of the ETF portfolio was -0.37%, while the CSI 300 ETF had a return of -0.21% [11]. - The report also notes that certain ETFs, such as the Green Electricity ETF and Aerospace ETF, continue to be held despite recent performance fluctuations [11].
粮食ETF(159698)上涨近1%,机构称种业竞争格局有望优化
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-29 03:43
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive performance of agricultural stocks and the grain industry index, with specific stocks like Agricultural Products (000061) and Cangge Mining (000408) showing significant increases in value [1][2] - As of August 29, 2025, the National Grain Industry Index (399365) has seen a rise in its component stocks, with a notable increase of 9.96% for Agricultural Products and 6.00% for Cangge Mining [1] - The total early rice production in China for 2025 is projected to be 28.513 million tons (570.3 billion jin), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 339,000 tons (6.8 billion jin), or 1.2% [1] Group 2 - The National Grain Industry Index (399365) closely tracks the performance of listed companies related to the grain industry on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [2] - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Grain Industry Index account for 50.43% of the index, with major companies including Dabeinong (002385) and Longping High-Tech (000998) [2] - The industry is expected to benefit from ongoing support policies for seed industry and the maturation of new biological breeding technologies, which may optimize the competitive landscape [1]
行业轮动ETF策略周报(20250818-20250824)-20250825
Hengtai Securities· 2025-08-25 07:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The strategy based on industry and theme ETFs constructed by Hengtai Securities Research Institute has achieved certain results. From August 18 - 22, 2025, the strategy's cumulative net return was about 6.08%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 1.79%. From October 14, 2024, to the present, the out - of - sample cumulative return of the strategy was about 15.90%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 0.76% [3]. - For the week of August 25 - 29, 2025, the model recommends allocating sectors such as communication equipment, industrial metals, and batteries. The strategy will newly hold products like Battery ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Semiconductor ETF, and Industrial Mother Machine ETF, and continue to hold products such as Communication Equipment ETF, Industrial Non - ferrous Metals ETF, and Satellite ETF [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Portfolio Construction - Hengtai Securities Research Institute constructed a strategy portfolio based on industry and theme ETFs according to the strategy reports "Strategy Portfolio Report under Industry Rotation: Quantitative Analysis from the Perspective of Industry Style Continuity and Switching" (20241007) and "Research on the Overview and Allocation Methods of the Stock - type ETF Market: Taking the ETF Portfolio Based on the Industry Rotation Strategy as an Example" (20241013) [2]. 3.2 ETF Portfolio Information | Fund Code | ETF Name | ETF Market Value (billion yuan) | Holding Status | Heavy - held Shenwan Industry and Weight | Weekly Timing Signal | Daily Timing Signal | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159583 | Communication Equipment ETF | 2.68 | Continue to hold | Communication equipment (73.61%) | 1 | 1 | | 560860 | Industrial Non - ferrous Metals ETF | 18.08 | Continue to hold | Industrial metals (54.97%) | 1 | 1 | | 159755 | Battery ETF | 48.90 | Add to portfolio | Battery (60.37%) | 1 | 1 | | 588170 | Science and Technology Innovation Semiconductor ETF | 4.09 | Add to portfolio | Semiconductor (87.1%) | 1 | 1 | | 159667 | Industrial Mother Machine ETF | 6.53 | Add to portfolio | Automation equipment (45.3%) | - 1 | 1 | | 159206 | Satellite ETF | 2.05 | Continue to hold | Military electronics (34.22%) | 1 | 1 | | 516150 | Rare Earth ETF Harvest | 58.89 | Add to portfolio | Minor metals (34.67%) | 1 | 1 | | 560170 | Central State - owned Enterprises Science and Technology ETF | 14.17 | Add to portfolio | Aviation equipment (22.35%) | 1 | 1 | | 588830 | Science and Technology Innovation New Energy ETF | 5.73 | Add to portfolio | Photovoltaic equipment (47.93%) | 1 | 1 | | 159698 | Grain ETF | 2.06 | Add to portfolio | Planting industry (48.33%) | 1 | 1 | [3] 3.3 Performance Tracking - From August 18 - 22, 2025, the strategy's cumulative net return was about 6.08%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 1.79%. From October 14, 2024, to the present, the out - of - sample cumulative return of the strategy was about 15.90%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 0.76% [3]. 3.4 Portfolio Adjustment - In the week of August 25, 2025, products such as Battery ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Semiconductor ETF, and Industrial Mother Machine ETF will be newly held, while products like Gold Stock ETF, Game ETF, and Innovation Drug ETF will be removed from the portfolio [3][12].
政治局会议强调夯实“三农”基础,催化粮食安全主题,粮食ETF(159698)单日涨1.39%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 06:37
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of strengthening the agricultural foundation and maintaining reasonable prices for grain and important agricultural products, as highlighted in the Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30 [1] - The Grain ETF (159698.SZ) rose by 1.39%, with its associated index, the National Grain Index (399365.SZ), increasing by 1.41%. Key constituent stocks such as Beidahuang, Longping High-Tech, and others showed significant gains [1] - The policy direction reinforces the strategic positioning of food security, creating positive expectations for the grain industry chain and providing fundamental support for related constituent stocks [1] Group 2 - The food and beverage index is highly concentrated, with the liquor sector accounting for over 50% in most indices. The performance of the China Securities Liquor and China Securities White Liquor indices is particularly notable, with high annualized returns [1] - The National Food Index has its top five constituent stocks limited to a combined weight of 60%, primarily featuring leading liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, along with dairy companies like Yili [1] - The pet food sector in China shows a growth rate exceeding 60% for dry baked grain products, with a CR5 brand concentration of nearly 60%, indicating an upgrade in consumer demand for deep-processed grain products [1]
粮食ETF(159698)多只成分股上涨,夏粮实现稳产丰收
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-17 03:42
Group 1 - The National Grain Industry Index (399365) has seen a slight increase of 0.07% as of July 17, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Honghui Fruits and Vegetables (603336) up 2.62% and Dongfang Iron Tower (002545) up 2.38% [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that summer grain production has achieved stability and abundance despite local drought conditions [1] - GF Securities indicated a tight balance in the supply and demand of new season corn, predicting a moderate price increase, with global corn ending stocks expected to decline further, reaching a ten-year low of 21.57% in the inventory-to-consumption ratio [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Grain Industry Index (399365) include major companies such as Dabeinong (002385) and Longping High-Tech (000998), collectively accounting for 51.06% of the index [2] - The Grain ETF (159698) closely tracks the National Grain Industry Index, reflecting the price changes of listed companies related to the grain industry on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1]
粮食ETF(159698)小幅收涨,机构:头部种企有望进一步提升竞争力
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-30 09:08
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the domestic grain prices are rising due to reduced imports and drought conditions, impacting the performance of the grain industry index and related stocks [1] - As of May 30, 2025, the National Grain Industry Index (399365) decreased by 0.09%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The top-performing stocks included Tiankang Biological (002100) with a rise of 3.02%, New Hope (000876) up by 1.59%, and Tangrenshen (002567) increasing by 1.46% [1] - Conversely, Xuerong Biological (300511) led the decline with a drop of 4.23%, followed by Lier Chemical (002258) down 3.37%, and Guangxin Co. (603599) down 2.55% [1] - The Grain ETF (159698) rose by 0.34%, with a recent price of 0.89 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 1.97% over the past month [1] Group 2 - The increase in corn and wheat futures prices is attributed to a weaker dollar and concerns over production, leading to short covering [1] - The average purchase price for corn nationwide was 2400 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan from the previous week, while the average price for wheat was 2466 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [1] - Tianfeng Securities suggests that the importance of food security will accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified corn, enhancing the competitiveness of leading seed companies [1] - The National Grain Industry Index reflects the price changes of listed companies related to the grain industry on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [2] - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Grain Industry Index accounted for 52.93% of the index, including major companies like Dabeinong (002385) and Longping High-Tech (000998) [2]