策略说明: · 恒泰证券研究所基于策略报告《行业轮动下的策略组合报告:基于行业风格延续和切 换视角下的定量分析》(20241007)和《股票型ETF市场概览与配置方法研究:以基于 行业轮动策略的ETF组合为例》（20241013）,构建基于行业和主题ETF的策略组合。 恒泰证券 HENGTAI SECURITIES 研究所 行业轮动ETF策略周报 (20250818-20250824) 证券研究报告·策略周报 证券分析师:张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangy i@cnht. com. cn 2025年8月25日 证券分析师:李杜 S0670524040001 021-50800937 l idu@cnht. com. cn 图表3: 行业轮动ETF策略建仓以来累计收益率(20241014-20250822) 策略更新: | 基金代码 | ETF名称 | ETF市值 | 持有情况 | 重仓申万 行业 | | 周度择时信号 日度择时信号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | 及权重 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of strengthening the agricultural foundation and maintaining reasonable prices for grain and important agricultural products, as highlighted in the Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30 [1] - The Grain ETF (159698.SZ) rose by 1.39%, with its associated index, the National Grain Index (399365.SZ), increasing by 1.41%. Key constituent stocks such as Beidahuang, Longping High-Tech, and others showed significant gains [1] - The policy direction reinforces the strategic positioning of food security, creating positive expectations for the grain industry chain and providing fundamental support for related constituent stocks [1] Group 2 - The food and beverage index is highly concentrated, with the liquor sector accounting for over 50% in most indices. The performance of the China Securities Liquor and China Securities White Liquor indices is particularly notable, with high annualized returns [1] - The National Food Index has its top five constituent stocks limited to a combined weight of 60%, primarily featuring leading liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, along with dairy companies like Yili [1] - The pet food sector in China shows a growth rate exceeding 60% for dry baked grain products, with a CR5 brand concentration of nearly 60%, indicating an upgrade in consumer demand for deep-processed grain products [1]

Group 1 - The National Grain Industry Index (399365) has seen a slight increase of 0.07% as of July 17, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Honghui Fruits and Vegetables (603336) up 2.62% and Dongfang Iron Tower (002545) up 2.38% [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that summer grain production has achieved stability and abundance despite local drought conditions [1] - GF Securities indicated a tight balance in the supply and demand of new season corn, predicting a moderate price increase, with global corn ending stocks expected to decline further, reaching a ten-year low of 21.57% in the inventory-to-consumption ratio [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Grain Industry Index (399365) include major companies such as Dabeinong (002385) and Longping High-Tech (000998), collectively accounting for 51.06% of the index [2] - The Grain ETF (159698) closely tracks the National Grain Industry Index, reflecting the price changes of listed companies related to the grain industry on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the domestic grain prices are rising due to reduced imports and drought conditions, impacting the performance of the grain industry index and related stocks [1] - As of May 30, 2025, the National Grain Industry Index (399365) decreased by 0.09%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The top-performing stocks included Tiankang Biological (002100) with a rise of 3.02%, New Hope (000876) up by 1.59%, and Tangrenshen (002567) increasing by 1.46% [1] - Conversely, Xuerong Biological (300511) led the decline with a drop of 4.23%, followed by Lier Chemical (002258) down 3.37%, and Guangxin Co. (603599) down 2.55% [1] - The Grain ETF (159698) rose by 0.34%, with a recent price of 0.89 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 1.97% over the past month [1] Group 2 - The increase in corn and wheat futures prices is attributed to a weaker dollar and concerns over production, leading to short covering [1] - The average purchase price for corn nationwide was 2400 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan from the previous week, while the average price for wheat was 2466 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [1] - Tianfeng Securities suggests that the importance of food security will accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified corn, enhancing the competitiveness of leading seed companies [1] - The National Grain Industry Index reflects the price changes of listed companies related to the grain industry on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [2] - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Grain Industry Index accounted for 52.93% of the index, including major companies like Dabeinong (002385) and Longping High-Tech (000998) [2]

Group 1: Defense and Military Industry - The defense and military industry is experiencing a historic opportunity due to three overlapping turning points: accelerated order replenishment, the finalization of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the end of the inventory destocking cycle in the aviation engine sector [2][3] - The demand for military equipment, such as missiles and long-range artillery, is seeing a historical increase as the 14th Five-Year Plan approaches its conclusion, indicating a strong recovery in industry prosperity [2] - The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to bring new policy dividends, further enhancing growth prospects for the industry [2] - Investment opportunities are identified in low-altitude economy and military intelligence sectors, which are expected to benefit from structural shifts in military spending and have long-term growth potential in military trade exports [2] Group 2: Food Security Sector - Food security is recognized as a cornerstone of national security, with strategic synergies between defense and food security [3] - The government is accelerating agricultural upgrades through policies such as increased subsidies for agricultural machinery and the promotion of seed technology, which are expected to enhance crop yields and reduce costs [3] - The food industry is anticipated to benefit from a dual drive of policy support and technological upgrades, with a focus on the industrialization of biological breeding and leading seed companies [3] - The food sector is entering a stabilization phase, with domestic grain prices bottoming out, providing support for valuation recovery [3] Group 3: Investment Tools and Strategies - The rapid development of ETFs in recent years offers ordinary investors efficient ways to invest in national security themes, particularly in defense and food sectors [4] - The defense ETF focuses on high-prosperity segments such as aerospace and military enterprises, while the food ETF targets seed revitalization and agricultural machinery, reinforcing food security [4] - Investors are advised to consider their risk tolerance and appropriately allocate between these two types of ETFs to enhance portfolio stability and achieve sustainable returns over the long term [4]

Market Overview - On May 7, the three major indices experienced a rise and fall, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.8% and the ChiNext Index rising by 0.51% [1] - The market saw nearly 3,300 stocks closing higher, with a total trading volume of 1,505.3 billion yuan, an increase of 140.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Key Events - The trading day was influenced by an important press conference held at 9 AM, which announced a series of favorable monetary policies including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [2][5] - The market exhibited a "traditional" pattern of high opening and subsequent decline, which led to some dissatisfaction among investors [7][8] Sector Performance - Military stocks surged, leading the market with significant gains, while sectors such as agriculture, banking, and chemicals also performed well [1][15] - Conversely, sectors related to AI applications, computing power, and pharmaceuticals showed weakness [1] Policy Implications - The recent press conference indicated a comprehensive monetary policy package aimed at supporting technology innovation, expanding consumption, and promoting inclusive finance [12][13] - Analysts suggest that the current market environment, characterized by overlapping trends of new policies and investment initiatives, will guide the A-share market towards a "slow bull" run in 2025 [13] Investment Recommendations - Mid-term investment focus should be on sectors highlighted in the government work report, including technology, green energy, consumption, and infrastructure [13] - Short-term attention is recommended for dividend-related sectors, consumer fields benefiting from expanded domestic demand, and technology sectors related to new productivity [13] Military Sector Insights - The military sector demonstrated resilience against market declines, with significant gains in military equipment and related concepts [15][17] - Analysts predict substantial growth in domestic demand for military products from 2025 to 2027, driven by national goals and self-sufficiency initiatives [17] Agricultural Sector Developments - The Ministry of Agriculture reported that spring planting is at its peak, with nearly 10 million acres of grain planted in Northeast China [19] - The agricultural market faces both challenges and opportunities, influenced by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties [19][20]

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a collective rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.25%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.27% on April 10, 2025 [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.61 trillion yuan, a decrease of 901 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] ETF Performance - Several US stock ETFs saw significant gains, with the S&P Oil & Gas ETF rising by 10.06%, the Nasdaq Index ETF increasing by 10.04%, and the Nasdaq 100 ETF up by 10.03% [1] - The US stock market indices experienced substantial increases, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 2,962.86 points (7.87%), the S&P 500 up by 474.13 points (9.52%), and the Nasdaq Composite up by 1,857.06 points (12.16%) [2] ETF Trading Volume - The top ETFs by trading volume included the Yinhua Daily ETF with 14.6 billion yuan, the Hang Seng Technology ETF with 13.93 billion yuan, and the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF with 13.70 billion yuan [5] - The top ETFs by turnover rate were led by the Benchmark Treasury ETF at 314.35%, followed by the New Economy ETF at 216.55% and the S&P Consumer ETF at 205.95% [6] New ETF Launch - The Dachen Shenzhen 100 ETF (code: 159216) is set to launch on April 11, 2025, closely tracking the Shenzhen 100 Index, which reflects the performance of core quality listed companies in the Shenzhen market [7] - The Shenzhen 100 Index is characterized by a significant weight in large-cap stocks, with 44.61% of its components having a market capitalization exceeding 200 billion yuan [7] Sector Focus - The Shenzhen 100 Index components are concentrated in TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), high-end manufacturing, and consumer sectors, indicating long-term growth potential aligned with China's economic transformation and high-quality development [8]